As the US presidential election enters its final round, pollster, statistician, and founder of polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Nate silverlisted 24 reasons why Republicans have hope for Donald Trump can win the race for the White House in the third bid.
In his new blog, Silver stated that this election was essentially a toss-up, but that Donald Trump had gained ground.
“This election remains very close, but Donald Trump has gained ground. One of my pet peeves is the idea that this is Kamala Harris’s election to lose,” said Silver.
“I can make some criticisms of his campaign, but if you study the factors that have determined the history of elections, you will see that he is facing a difficult situation,” he said.
This is the list of factors, according to Nate Silver, who voted for Donald Trump in the race for the White House.
- According to Silver, Vice President Harris is the favorite to win popular votes, but the Electoral College bias favors the Republican Party with about 2 percentage points. Nate added that in an era of intense partisanship and close elections, this is a difficult thing for Democrats to overcome.
- Silver said that inflation and high prices will also play a key role in the election as historically highly sensitive to inflation. Although, inflation is now decreasing, Democrats can also be blamed for the intensive increase in government spending during the Covid recovery effort.
- Silver also pointed out that voter perceptions of the economy are far behind objective data, and that growth in household incomes has been slow for the working class amid rising corporate profits.
- In global trends, Silver said that incumbent parties around the world are doing well, and that the historical advantage of incumbency has been reduced to the point that it can now be a handicap of incumbency rather than giving a negative perception of the country’s direction.
- The poll also says that populism is often a very effective strategy, and that many Trump voters are “sad” in it
Hillary Clinton sense of the term. - According to Silver, Illegal and Illegal Immigration has also increased during the Biden/Harris tenure amid a growing global backlash against immigration. This according to Silver will also have an impact on votes.
- Harris’ leftist stance and unpopular position in 2019 will also affect his poll prospects, Silver said. He added that Harris also lacked a suitable strategy to explain the change in attitude.
- According to polls, the cultural vibe is shifting to the right, and the left continues to pay the price for the excesses of 2020 in Covid, crime, “wokeness,” and other issues.
- Voters are nostalgic for the relatively strong economic performance of Trump’s first three years and associate problems in 2020 with Democrats, even if they were not in charge at the time, Silver said.
- Silver claims that Democratic dominance among African-American voters and other racial and ethnic minority groups is disappearing as the memory of the Civil Rights Era has faded. Educational polarization, which reflects the Democrats’ deteriorating performance among working-class voters of all races, is likely to dominate other factors. It’s possible that this could work for Democrats if Harris makes the necessary gains among white voters, who have more influence in the electoral college, but there’s no guarantee, he added.
- According to Silver, many men, especially young men, feel lost because of declining college enrollment, contributing to the right-wing shift and widening gender gap.
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Joe Biden seek to be president until 86. Voters have weighted very rarely enough for this, and neuters what should have been one of the most problems Harris about Trump’s age and cognitive fitness, Silver siad. - According to the polls, Harris also got a late start to the race, inheriting most of his staff from Biden’s poor campaign. He’s proven to be a good candidate in many respects, but it’s definitely a big leap when the understudy is suddenly thrust into the spotlight.
- Silver added that Harris is seeking to become the first female president. In the only previous attempt, the undecided broke heavily against Hillary Clinton, and she underperformed her polls.
- Silver said that Trust in the media continues to fall to an abysmal level. One can debate how to blame this between the long-standing efforts of conservatives to destroy the media, the decline of secular trust in institutions, and various overreaching and hypocrisy in the press. But it is difficult for legitimate criticism of Trump to penetrate the general public. Trump’s conviction on a series of felony charges makes little difference, for example.
- The poll claims that Trump is a classic con man, but the art of con is often effective, and Trump is skilled at convincing voters that he is on his side even when the election is not in his best interest. Furthermore, Trump presents Democrats with the problem of the Three Stooges Syndrome: multiple broad-based attacks that tend to cancel each other out.
- According to Silver, the Democrats’ college-educated consultant class has a poor instinct for how to appeal to the mass public, while Trump has done more to cultivate support among “strange” marginal voting groups.
- Silver said the Democrats’ argument that Trump is a critical threat to democracy in the U.S. is a tough sell because the Jan. 6 deadline is a near miss. It’s counterintuitive to voters that democracy is under threat and Democrats may have too many chips in this attack, he added.
- Foreign policy may not matter to voters, but the world has become unstable in the biden era. There is a decline in democracy around the world and an increase in interstate conflicts, crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, the deterioration of US-China relations, increased immigration flows due to global instability, and the withdrawal from Afghanistan that affect Biden’s popularity, Silver said. .
- Silver points out that the Israel-Hamas war is splitting the Democratic base in a way that has no issues comparable to the GOP base.
- According to Silver, there are more left-leaning third-party candidates than right-leaning ones, and a former major third-party candidate (RFK Jr.) endorsed Trump and undermined Harris’ post-convention momentum.
- The richest man in the world,
Elon Musk has become a huge Trump booth and did everything in power to tip the election to him, said Silver. Twitter/X remains an influential platform among journalists but has shifted to the right. Elon and Silicon Valley have also created a permission structure for other wealthy elites to strongly advocate for Trump and provide a new base of money and cultural influence, he added. - Trump was almost killed in an assassination attempt, and then there was a second one against him. The first effort is related to an increase in favorability ratings for Trump, and polls show him more popular and sympathetic than in 2016 or 2020, Silver said.
- According to Silver, Harris has run on vibrations and failed to articulate a clear vision for the country. It might have been a good strategy if the “base” voted for him, but it didn’t.
A series of surveys show that Harris has a slim lead over Trump, with a recent Emerson College poll showing him ahead by just one point — 49% to 48% — among voters. This follows previous polls where he had a two-point advantage in September and early October, and a four-point lead in August.
Meanwhile, a Fox News poll released Wednesday showed Trump regaining his lead over Harris, with a score of 50% to 48% among voters. This marked a change from Harris’ previous lead of 50% to 48% in September, after Trump led her 50% to 49% in August.
