By Luiza Ilie
BUCHAREST (Reuters) – Romania’s vote in the parliamentary elections on Friday is expected to gain from the uncertainty of whether the shock results in the presidential election will stand.
Days after far-right politician Calin Georgescu won the most votes in the first round of presidential elections, polls this week showed the hard-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) had a narrow lead over the governing Social Democrats.
The gains of far-right groups in Sunday’s parliamentary vote after a campaign dominated by voters’ concerns about budget issues and the cost of living could upset Romania’s pro-Western orientation and undermine support for Ukraine, political analysts said.
“Those who quietly voted for Georgescu do not understand that we are talking about a total change of trajectory,” said political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu.
Romania is a member of the European Union and NATO.
Georgescu’s unexpected victory last Sunday sparked suspicions of meddling in the campaign, prompting a vote recount and prompting the losing candidate to ask the country’s highest court to rerun the first round.
The confusion means parliamentary elections will go ahead with voters unsure whether the results of the first round of presidential elections will stand.
He also did not know whether the presidential run-off – scheduled for December 8 between Georgescu and the centrist Elena Lasconi – would continue or be held at a later date.
The Constitutional Court considered the situation on Friday, but decided to postpone until Monday the decision on canceling the first round.
Georgescu is running as a mainstream party challenging independents, but political analysts say far-right parties will benefit from the uncertainty.
“The net beneficiaries … are Georgescu and the anti-establishment camp who now have additional ammunition: this is how state institutions are, how discretionary,” said Sergiu Miscoiu, professor of political science at Babes-Bolyai University.
An AtlasIntel poll conducted from November 26-28 put AUR on the right at 22.4%, with Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s Social Democrats at 21.4%, down 10 percentage points in two weeks and Lasconi’s Save Romania Union at 17.5%. Polls are not a factor in the recount.
BUDGET, EMPLOYMENT and INVESTMENT
Georgescu, 62, has been critical of NATO and Romania’s stance on Ukraine, and has said Bucharest should participate, not challenge Russia. Opinion polls have not predicted his success.
The AUR has 8.5% of the seats in the current legislature, and two far-right splinter parties may also enter parliament.
Ciolacu came third in the first round of presidential elections, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with his government after campaigning on promises of stability as the war in Ukraine continued.
The next government will face the difficult task of reducing the EU’s highest budget deficit at 8% of economic output. It will also face pressure to meet defense spending targets when US president Donald Trump takes office.
Romania has the EU’s largest share of the population at risk of poverty, and swathes of the country need investment.
“We have an uneven developed country and the biggest frustration is in this peripheral region that will be the victim of a candidate who knows how to deal with it,” said anthropologist Bogdan Iancu.
In cities such as Victoria, in the shadow of the Fagaras mountains in the Southern Carpathians, the promise of projects is very important. In the three decades since the massive downsizing of the communist-era chemical plant, the city’s population has dwindled to 6,400 and hundreds of residents endure long commutes to work.
“First of all, I will choose the factories that come here. So that we have a place to work,” said Mihai Coroianu, 52, shoveling snow in the city’s main square.
The city’s mayor Camelia Bertea secured 31 million euros ($33 million) in funding for local projects over three years, including the reopening of local hospitals, the equivalent of Victoria’s budget for 31 years.
The government has also secured investment from German defense groups Rheinmetall (ETR:) to build a gunpowder facility near Victoria by 2027, providing hundreds of jobs.
“The future of small towns without financial prospects can only be EU funds,” said Bertea.
($1 = 0.9478 euros)
