New York State has seen a record number of tornadoes this year. People think they need to prepare more as climate change affects weather patterns. But the science is complicated.
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Remnants of Debby brought heavy rain and flooding to many areas of the East Coast today, and in some places tornado warning. It’s the latest in a year of deadly and devastating tornadoes, including in states that don’t usually deal with them. In New York state, at least 26 tornadoes have touched down this year, the most on record. That’s left state officials and residents wondering if the region can expect more storms like this in the future and what role human-caused climate change might play. As WSKG’s Rebecca Redelmeier reports, the science is complicated.
REBECCA REDELMEIER, BYLINE: One of the country’s most destructive tornadoes this summer touched down in Rome, a city of more than 30,000 people in upstate New York. Stephen Lavine, who goes by Butch, with his grandparents in the yard when the storm rolled in. The princess was rushed by the boy to her house across the street.
STEPHEN LAVINE: Look at the hurricane – or the tornado coming, and he got in the cellar before the tree fell on him.
REDELMEIER: A large tree fell on the side of the princess’s house. Lavine himself hid in the house.
LAVINE: I walked in the bathroom. My whole house was shaking. I don’t know why. And it was the loudest sound I ever heard.
REDELMEIER: When all the families were safe, their homes were destroyed. Lavine has lived in Rome most of his life. He said he never expected a tornado to hit here.
LAVINE: Never saw it. I talked to someone – 67 years old, never seen.
REDELMEIER: New York usually gets a few tornadoes a year. But this year, there have been more than ever. Other states in the Northeast have also seen unusual tornado patterns in recent years. Mark Wysocki is a former New York state climatologist. He said the Northeast needs to prepare for the possibility of more storms like this.
MARK WYSOCKI: The Northeast has been protected from this. Everybody in the Northeast says, oh, it’s a Midwest problem.
REDELMEIER: But it says the tornado pattern is moving.
WYSOCKI: But we’re seeing changes when they happen and where they happen.
REDELMEIER: The science of tornadoes is complicated. Scientists found more tornadoes forming slightly further east than the historical average, in the central and southern Great Plains. And as the winter gets shorter, more tornadoes form earlier in the year. Wysocki said he thinks climate change is causing the change, and there are some indicators of it. But climate scientists say there still isn’t enough data to tell. Harold Brooks is a senior scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Oklahoma. They say New York just had a weird year.
HAROLD BROOKS: Unless you start experiencing it more, more often, I don’t think you have anything going on above, other than curiosity.
REDELMEIER: Brooks said warming global temperatures will certainly affect the conditions that create tornadoes. It’s just not clear how that will change where or how often tornadoes occur. There are two big ingredients that make a tornado, a combination of warm, moist air and what’s called wind shear, which usually makes the storm’s winds spin. Brooks said climate change is making days hotter and more humid, but reducing wind shear.
BROOKS: So we have one big ingredient that on average is going to do better and one big ingredient that is going to be worse.
REDELMEIER: Jackie Bray is New York’s commissioner of Homeland Security and Emergency Services. He said the country needs to prepare for more extreme weather.
JACKIE BRAY: That’s another thing we have to do as New Yorkers.
REDELMEIER: Bray said the state is spending more to help communities prepare for heavier rainstorms, more intense heat waves, and yes, tornadoes. Other Northeastern states like New Jersey, Connecticut and Vermont are also investing in keeping roads and neighborhoods safe from powerful storms. Stephen Lavine in Rome said the July tornado caused so much damage, he’s not sure how the family will recover.
LAVINE: But we don’t want to leave, but it’s been a nightmare.
REDELMEIER: The city has at least tens of millions of dollars in damage.
For NPR News, I’m Rebecca Redelmeier in Rome, NY
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