Ten years of anti-incumbency, Jat anger, and perceived farmer frustration – until senior BJP leader Manohar Lal Khattar was not invited on stage during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally: it was the perfect mix for the opposition party. script of victory in the Haryana assembly elections.
In this case, Congress is confident of a positive outcome; so much so, that many leaders have started busy lobbying through the cabinet portfolio. So how does the BJP prevent this from happening?
Gandhi’s comments on reservation were used to BJP’s advantage
In September, Congress lawmaker Rahul Gandhi created a storm during a trip to the United States when he spoke about “ending reservations” in India – a sensitive topic at home that the BJP exploited well in Haryana to drive the cause.
Gandhi made the controversial gaffe during a session with students and faculty at Georgetown University in Washington, DC. He said: “Congress will think of ending reservation when India becomes a fair place,” adding that India is not a fair place today.
Scheduled caste (SC) population in Haryana is 19.35 percent of the total population of the state. The OBC (other backward class) population is estimated to be around 40 percent and consists of 78 castes.
The BJP went all out to create a fear psychosis which seems to have paid off. A day later, Gandhi stepped in citing “misinterpretation” but it was too late.
Farmer’s pleasure
Frustration among farmers is visible in many seats in Haryana, especially near the Punjab border. In fact, many faces from the BJP and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP, which faced the wrath of farmers for joining the BJP in 2019) faced protests by farmers during the campaign.
Khattar’s comment made it worse: “Kuch log sarfire aise hote hain jo apni dabangai chalate hain (Some people are crazy and want to assert their authority)…”. However, the BJP is trying to undo the damage by promising to buy 24 crops at minimum support price (MSP) in its poll manifesto.
Ahead of the elections, Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini in Kurukshetra announced that all crops in Haryana must be bought at MSP, which appears to be working at the eleventh hour. Also, the saffron party’s cautious strategy to keep Khattar – facing an “anti-farmer” decision – away from the mega event seems to have appeased disgruntled farmers.
Non-Jat consolidation, entry into Jat territory
The BJP seems to be holding back on non-Jat consolidation in the east and south. The initial perception of the BJP shows that OBCs and backward castes continue to support the BJP as the party makes inroads into the Jat-dominated western regions of the country.
Take the example of Tosham, where BJP’s Shruti Chowdhary is the leader. This is a Congress stronghold that has been almost impenetrable for at least two decades. BJP’s Mukesh Sharma is leading in Gurugram despite the insurgency problem and Vipul Goel is also leading in Faridabad, according to latest Election Commission trends.
‘Love Charger’
Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh – also known as the ‘Charger of Love’ – has asked his followers to vote for the ruling BJP in the Haryana elections, just a day after he was released on a 20-day parole for which he appears to have worked. favor of BJP.
Sirsa dera has a follower base of 1.25 crore. Out of 38 branches, 21 are in Haryana alone – Fatehabad, Kaithal, Kurukshetra, Sirsa, Karnal and Hisar. These six districts with 26 seats have a large number of followers to influence the outcome of the election. So, the call of the ‘Love Charger’ to vote for the BJP cannot be taken lightly.
When he was released on parole for 20 days from the Rohtak jail, where he was serving a 20-year sentence for raping two students, his timing could also be questioned. However, what cannot be questioned is the desired outcome.
Selja factor
The final factor is believed to be a senior Congress leader – Kumari Selja, who has chief ministerial ambitions. Even this morning, he confirmed that he is in the running for the top job. Why is he a factor?
He is the Dalit face of the Congress in Haryana, which has delayed campaigning for the party even as the Hoodas have gone all out. He is also said to be unhappy with the selection of candidates and distribution of tickets, which is largely joined by Hooda loyalists.
Selja has voiced her displeasure at not being considered and consulted when choosing candidates. As the BJP leader emerged victorious, many in the Congress camp are now pointing to him as the reason behind the BJP’s smooth road to victory, so far.
But above all, BJP sources point to a sixth reason – the Modi factor. He shared an old photo of Narendra Modi campaigning for the party in the Sonipat seat, which shows his current mandate is a reflection of the age of his relationship with the state.
But whatever, it’s celebration time for the BJP in Haryana which has ordered 100 kg of jalebi.
