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When Ange Postecoglou came on after Tottenham Hotspur’s defeat, he and the fans were rightfully angry, but there was a calm voice. It’s just a “kind season”, as some around the club maintained. This is not a metaphor. It’s a fact. Spurs’ inconsistency has spread to the majority of the Premier League, in a way that has never been seen before.
The gap between third and 13th is just four points. Between the third and the 11th, only three. The table has never been congested at this stage, through more than half the table and almost a third of the way through the season.
Historically, the closest a table like this has come at this stage was four points separating third-placed Chelsea and 11th-placed Fulham in 2002-03, and five points between Spurs and Middlesbrough in 2005-06. From third to 13th, the closest was six between Arsenal and Newcastle United in 1998-99.
For the most part, the gap is wider, averaging between 10 and 11 points over the last decade. Even “Leicester City’s season” in 2015-16 only had a gap between sixth place and nine points. This is a big crunch in the Premier League. That’s why Manchester United, who are in 13th place, can be optimistic about the appointment of Ruben Amorim. If he gets an immediate response from the team, two wins could suddenly make him a contender for a Champions League place and maybe even more.
Many clubs probably feel the same way, if a little confused about what happened. Spurs themselves have won two of their last four games with a convincing 4-1 defeat but are in 11th place amid a huge debate over their manager. Brentford are looking together again and it looks like the Thomas Frank era is getting stale. Aston Villa are ninth and look like the extra rigor in their Champions League campaign they can do…
| team | Pld | F | A | G.D | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 11 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Man City | 11 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 11 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 11 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | Nottingham Forest | 11 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Brighton | 11 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Fulham | 11 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 11 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Villa Aston Kab | 11 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Spurs | 11 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 16 |
| 11 | Brentford | 11 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 16 |
| 12 | AFC Bournemouth | 11 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Man Utd | 11 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | West Ham | 11 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | Leicester | 11 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Everton | 11 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Ipswich | 11 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 | C Palace | 11 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 19 | wolf | 11 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 6 |
| 20 | Southampton | 11 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 4 |
It’s like little we’ve seen before, at least for a while. Having to go back to the early 2000s or even the 1990s for a similar example is instructive. It was an era when the financial gap was not great and there was a more competitive balance, as illustrated by 79 points enough to win the title in 1999. The arrival of Roman Abramovich, capitalist money, the state and all other interests. changed all that, instigating this financial thing in the league. The 90 percent correlation table for wage bills, as revealed in many academic studies, becomes more useful when the difference between the wage bills is greater.
That’s why this crunch right now is so incredible. It certainly isn’t possible at this stage in the Premier League’s history, and it may not be sustainable.
Even so, it can still have a big impact. Blips in form may not be as damaging and can be quickly recovered. There is still a sense that many teams know where and what, as if they are still in the first week of the campaign.
There are two direct and related reasons. One of them is the effect of the Profitability and Sustainability Rules, which force clubs to make other compromises. The wage bill has been so long that there is no equal headroom. Clubs haven’t been able to go out and buy in the same way.
While this has naturally brought many complaints in the market, it may be the self-correction that the Premier League needs.
The more important things are the bigger ones, the ones that need to be fixed, and add more problems. That is the effect of the schedule, and what it means to be “Forever Football”. The players are tired. Mikel Arteta’s injuries are not the only ones to blame, and Manchester City have also been affected by the Club World Cup at the end of the season.
This is also a way for the coaching staff to not be able to train properly, often due to squad members not being available. Players may not be injured for games but have to miss many sessions due to physical problems. That has a deeper impact on the modern game than a highly systematic team. It also has a knock-on effect since the workload on the players fits up, they can’t rest, and they are then more likely to injure themselves.
“It’s been a nightmare for eight weeks,” Arteta said. “Doubt after doubt, problem after problem, not only with those who can’t play, but with those who can play only for a while and can’t play.”
The Professional Footballers’ Association and other player representative bodies have held numerous meetings over the past week on the impact of injuries, which have ended with discussions about what constitutes “survival of the fittest”. The factor behind the results that seem most beneficial today is who can get closer to the full team.
Where Arne Slot Liverpool has been very good, but there are also two sides to this discussion. There may be two sides to the season, with others not so crunched.
This congested table looks more competitive, in a way that the Premier League needs. It seems the schedule is almost a leveling factor amid the financial disparity in the game. That’s not entirely positive, though. For one thing, something has gone wrong in sports if fatigue is needed as an equalizing factor. This is not an exact rule, and there are more productive remedies.
The second problem is that the bigger schedule will serve the club with the biggest squad in the long run. That’s how football began to see an unprecedented proliferation of trebles since 2008, as “super clubs” grew to a financial size capable of accumulating talent.
You can’t say that about Liverpool, because they are very good at their job under the wealth of City. That is especially so this season in another approach to Slot control. It could be important at the end of the season. Liverpool will also have to deal with their own pain, not least for Alisson.
And it is still a fact sitting on top of all this, although there is an element of surprise to it. One of the “Super Clubs” is in first place with five points.
Now, everyone below is trying to find the same breathing space. Of course, this international break could see a lot of withdrawals due to injury, as clubs protect what they have.
The consequence for now is that it is impossible for anyone to place too far in terms of points. It’s not just that season. It’s one we’ve never seen before.
