A top political handicapper has changed his prediction for the November Senate election in Montana to show the advantage for Republicans as Democratic Senator Jon Tester has begun to slip in the polls.
The battle between Tester and Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, was moved from “stealth” to “leaning Republican” by Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics on Friday, with less than nine weeks until the election.
The ratings change follows the release of a recent AARP poll showing Sheehy with a six-point 51%-45% advantage over Tester in the two-way race. In the expanded field, Sheehy still beat Tester 49%-41%.
SENATE GOP BRACING FOR LAST-MINUTE LEADER BIDS — POTENTIAL BY KEY TRUMP ALLY
“Beyond the polls, history and recent trends are not on Tester’s side, as previously mentioned,” wrote managing editor Kyle Kondik. “He is one of the smaller partisans in either chamber of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election.”
“Perhaps ticket-separate returns in the force of the year – if so, Tester can still live. But the style again-term is clear to less ticket-separate,” He said.
GOP SENATE CAMPAIGN CHIEF ‘CONCERNED’ ABOUT SPENDING DISPARITY BUT PREDICTS WHO WILL WIN MAJORITY
The campaigns for Tester and Sheehy did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital for comment.
Montanans first elected Tester to the Senate in 2006, and he won twice, even though the state voted Republican.
The Democratic senatorial bid in 2018 does not coincide with the presidential election, freeing him from concerns that the Democratic presidential candidate will influence race. But now, Vice President Kamala Harris will be at the top of the Democratic ticket, while former President Trump, who won Montana twice in 2016 and 2020, will lead the Republican ticket in the state.
LINDSEY GRAHAM SAYS AMAZON ‘IN THE NEWS’ ABOUT ALEXA’S POTENTIAL ELECTION INTERFERENCE
Tester did not endorse Harris and did not attend the Democratic National Convention last month. Although it seems far from Harris and the party, the effectiveness of the strategy is not clear, especially since reports indicate that Tester, who led the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) at the time, was personally responsible for recruiting Harris for the Senate in 2015.
DEMS Lose GOP GOP CONTENDER IN PIVOTAL SENATE RACES AS VOTERS LOCK IN: POLL
In addition, the Montana Democrat offered the endorsement of senator Harris when he was chosen as the vice presidential candidate in 2020. He wrote on X, “My friend @KamalaHarris is a proven fighter and a good choice for Vice President. As VP, I am sure she will keep fighting for working families in this country.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
Most recently, Tester claimed, “I’m not going to endorse for president — and I’m going to tell you why.”
“Two reasons: No. 1, I’m focused on my race. And No. 2, people want to nationalize this race, and this is not about national politics. This is about Montana,” he said, justifying his decision. not to give the seal of approval to Harris.
Aubrie Spady of Fox News Digital contributed to this report.
Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more in Fox News Digital’s election hub.