In the midst of the Russia-Ukraine war, North Korea will provide enough troops to cover the average number of Russian losses in Ukraine every week, according to an analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Friday.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has been raging for more than two years after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a “special military operation” in Ukraine in February 2022. Although Moscow aims for a quick victory over its Eastern European neighbors, it is viewed as having less. military, its spirited defense effort bolstered by Western aid, has been blocked from making substantial gains.
Western leaders see the deployment of North Korean troops to the battlefield as a significant escalation. This could lead to technology transfers from Moscow to Pyongyang, potentially developing North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs, thereby affecting Indo-Pacific relations.
Meanwhile, ISW, a Washington, DC-based think tank, analyzed the numbers provided by the US Department of Defense (DOD) and the training report of North Korean troops to deploy to Ukraine and found that these numbers “are unlikely to provide Russia with a long-term solution to the energy problem work.”
The US has raised the alarm about North Korea’s plans to deploy about 10,000 North Korean soldiers to Russia, which “will probably increase Russian forces near Ukraine in the next few weeks,” Deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters this week.
However, ISW noted that this number appears relatively small when considering the number of Russian troops being lost each day, which US Defense Secretary General Lloyd Austin said amounts to around 1,200 troops per day.
The contingent of North Korean troops, which ISW reported could be as many as 12,000, would therefore only cover about 10 days – at most – of the missing Russian troops “if North Korean forces face the same level of casualties,” which would destroy the “battlefield.” a lesson Pyongyang hopes to learn.”
“(North Korean leader) Kim (Jong Un) is unlikely to commit his forces to face such losses on an endless battlefield,” ISW wrote in its Friday assessment.
The Pentagon said Newsweek was via email that he had no “additional comments to add” to the report on North Korean troops and the deployment of troops to Russia, adding, “In general, we do not speak for matters that are specific to Russia or the DPRK.”
Newsweek has reached out to the State Department via email on Friday afternoon for comment.
Contributors / Getty Images
However, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday that US and Chinese officials held “intense conversations just this week,” stressing the need for Beijing to “use the leverage it needs to stop these activities.”
ISW notes that from publicly available information and statements from Pentagon officials, it remains unclear how Russia plans to use North Korean forces. One assessment determined that the force was most likely aimed at “participating in the war for Russia to gain valuable combat experience in modern warfare.”
The lack of modern and regular warfare between the top military powers has proven to be one of the complicating factors of the Russian invasion. Russia had planned to take over Ukraine in just a few days by seizing Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, but the small country resisted weapons supplied by its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies.
As the conflict continues, some experts fear the war will prove a testing ground for Russia’s allies to see how their weapons stack up against NATO—and more specifically U.S.—weapons and defense systems.
Iran and North Korea appear to be taking advantage of this situation, providing drones and ammunition to Russia and allegedly paying attention to their performance. Sending troops to Russia, where they can gain valuable and rare modern warfare experience, could be the next step in North Korea’s plan to continue trying to build up its military forces.
However, the deployment of North Korean troops could prove more problematic. Austin told reporters this week that the troops were seen wearing Russian military uniforms when they were sent to Ukraine.
In addition, South Korea’s intelligence agency said that an initial batch of 1,500 fighters had traveled to Russia, wearing Russian military uniforms, Russian-made weapons and false documents claiming the fighters were residents of Siberia. More troops are expected to travel soon, the agency said in mid-October.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on US and NATO allies to act before North Korean forces could, writing in a Telegram post that “everyone is waiting” for North Korea to do something, by which time it may be too late.
