New Map Shows Countries Most Likely to Hit by Major Storms

Forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) have updated their predictions for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

CSU’s Tropical Weather and Climate Research Team said in a release Tuesday that it anticipates 25 named storms this year, including 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. Forecasters said that they increased the overall forecast due “in part” to Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall in southern Texas on Friday morning as a Category 1 storm.

The prediction is a slight bump from the team’s last forecast report, released on June 11, which predicted 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) defines a major hurricane as any cyclone listed as Category 3 or higher.

Tuesday’s report also provided updated forecasts on which US sites will be hit by major hurricanes this year. The CSU team said the entire East Coast, including Florida, has a 31 percent chance of being affected by a major storm. Along the Gulf Coast in the Florida Panhandle west to the city of Brownsville, Texas, forecasts say there is a 38 percent chance of at least one major storm hitting the states.

That probability is a slight decrease from the CSU report in June, in which East Coast states were given a 34 percent chance of experiencing a Category 3 storm or higher. The same report put the Gulf Coast at a 42 percent chance of facing a major hurricane.

“Coastal residents are being warned that it only takes one hurricane to make landfall
create an active season for them,” reads the report. “Thorough preparations must be made for each season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

The Tropical Weather and Climate Research Team said in a report that the forecast was “based on statistical and dynamic models that will fail in a few years.” Forecasters also noted that forecasts were not made about where the storm could “specifically” hit the US coastal areas.

“The probability of landfall for either location on the coast is very low and
reflects the fact that, in any season, most US coastal areas will not feel the effects of hurricanes even when the season is active,” the report read.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted 2024 as an above-average hurricane season. The forecast agency predicts there will be 17 to 25 named storms, with eight to 13 of those cyclones becoming hurricanes and four to seven becoming major typhoons.

Beryl is the first hurricane to make landfall in the US this year. The storm began to form on June 28 and reached Category 5 strength when it slammed into the Caribbean island, where at least 11 people were killed. On Tuesday, The New York Times reported, the storm has killed at least seven people in Texas and eight in Louisiana.

Power is also out for millions of residents in both countries. The violent storm reached wind speeds of up to 80 mph and caused heavy rain, flooding and property damage in Houston and surrounding areas. At multiple reported that some of the storm-related deaths were caused by trees blown down by the wind.

Beryl quickly became a Category 4 storm after forming in the southeastern Caribbean late last month. Hurricane expert Michael Lowry previously told Newsweek that the strength of the storm “is not heard” this is the beginning of the typhoon season. According to Lowry, “the typical date for the first major hurricane is September 1, so Beryl is two months ahead of schedule.”