Washington— Nevadans voted Tuesday in the Senate basic as the Republicans are set to nominate a candidate to take on the incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen come November, when the balance of the Senate will be up in the air.
Republicans have not won a Senate race in the Silver State since 2012. And it has been even more since 2004 that a Republican presidential candidate has won Nevada. But Republicans flipped the governor’s mansion in the last election, and recent polls have shown former President Donald Trump narrowly trailing President Biden, suggesting that the state race could be seriously in the GOP’s favor.
Meanwhile, Democrats face steep odds of holding a majority in the Senate. Democrats and independent Democrats-leaning have a slim majority of 51 seats now that they are hard to defend. But this cycle presents a major obstacle, with Democratic senators up for reelection in several states that Trump won in 2020. And in five other states considered to be at war – like Nevada – the Democrats’ reelection is not guaranteed.
For Rosen, this year is his first re-election bid. The former synagogue president ousted the Republican incumbent in 2018, after one term in the House. But whether moderate Democrats can retain their seats in November is an open question.
Despite a long list of Republicans running in Tuesday’s GOP primary, businessman and former army captain Sam Brown is widely seen as the GOP frontrunner. And it may add to the prospect of a last-minute Trump endorsement over the weekend.
Josh Edelson/Getty Images
Trump stopped short of a full endorsement of Brown during the Las Vegas rally on Friday, calling Brown a “good guy” after months of praising several GOP candidates and teasing more recent endorsements. But a few hours later, the former president took to the social media platform to clarify that “Sam Brown has a Full and Total Endorsement,” adding that he “has proven his Love for our Country, a terrible wound, and made a Comeback of a Lifetime. .”
Brown was awarded a purple heart for his service in Afghanistan, where he suffered third-degree burns on parts of his body. He has the support of many in the GOP, including Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo. But there are other Republicans, like former ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, who are giving Brown a run for his money in Tuesday’s primary.
Gunter, who worked in the Trump administration and has the support of several allies of the former president, has tried to position himself as close to Trump throughout the campaign, calling himself “110% pro-Trump.” And that strategy may have been helped by a former president who delayed weighing in on the race. Whether Trump’s endorsement, which came after early voting has ended in the state, cements Brown’s victory remains to be seen.
“Looking at the timing of this endorsement, it’s obviously too late to have the kind of impact that it could have had, because a whole bunch of Nevadans have already cast ballots,” said Rebecca Gill, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “If the goal was to help Sam Brown win, he would have made this endorsement a while ago.”
Looking to the general election, a survey conducted in late April by Emerson College found Rosen leading Brown 45% to 37% in a hypothetical matchup. And the incumbent saw a bigger lead over Gunter.
However, Nevada has historically had difficulty polling, with high population turnover.
“It’s hard to poll in Nevada, because so many people move around,” Gill said. “So that just creates, I think, a lot more unease in the election about how close the race is, who’s right.”
Ian Maule/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Indeed, the race seems to be getting closer. In April, the Cook Political Report changed its rating from “leaning Democrat” to “rising,” noting in its analysis that “unique forces” are at play in Nevada, including newer voters, presidential poll numbers and tourism. -dependent economies are still struggling to bounce back after the pandemic.
Nevada’s economy, which relies heavily on tourism and hospitality, is among the most affected by pandemic shutdowns in 2020. And the labor market in Las Vegas in particular is one of the hardest hit in the state, resulting in a slower recovery than in other states. . For Nevadans, economic issues that have struck a chord with the broader nation, such as inflation and housing prices, are particularly relevant.
In 2022, Republicans benefited from former Gov. Steve Sisolak’s unpopular COVID-19 policies, as Lombardo attacked Democrats over COVID-related shutdowns. But the Senate race has a different dynamic and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto can live.
Cortez Masto’s race for Nevada’s other Senate seat is among the closest in the state. But Democrats ultimately won a re-election bid against former Nevada attorney general Adam Laxalt, who defeated Brown in the primary. Republicans are betting on Brown to be a strong candidate this cycle, while Rosen’s brand name does not run as deep as his partner in the Senate, who was Nevada’s attorney general before coming to the Senate.
But turnout can change the dynamic of Cortez Masto Elections during the midterms, when turnout is generally suppressed. And what people in Clark County, home to the liberal voting block in Las Vegas, turnout will be key for Democrats.
“People in Clark County do not tend to come out to vote in as high a number when there is no presidential race on the ballot. And so the depression and turnout for Clark County can make it more difficult for Democrats in statewide elections,” Gill said. But he added that voter fatigue and low morale in this particular presidential election could “make this race really tight.”
