Originally posted on ClimateREALISM
Recently, some media outlets claimed that June 2024 was the hottest June on record worldwide and that the record was 12 or 13 warmer than normal months, which they blamed on human-caused climate change. Every news story makes false claims to reach a climate tipping point, extreme weather events, and persistently hot temperatures prove a “climate crisis” is imminent.
Here are some headlines: Temperatures 1.5C above pre-industrial average for 12 months, data shows (The Guardian,) June sizzled for the 13th straight monthly heat record, but July could break the string (National Public Radio,) and the World is in line for the hottest year as 1.5C limit violated for 12 months in a row (Financial Times.)
The ongoing 1.5C temperature limit has people around the world in shock. For example, this infographic from The Asia-Pacific branch of the International Union of Food workers (IUF) says (author in bold):
Global warming caused by human activity has reached about 1°C over the past 170 years, an increase of 0.2°C per decade. Scientists warn that an average increase of more than 1.5 ° C in the temperature of the earth’s surface compared to pre-industrial levels. it would be a disaster for the environment and human health.
But although the world’s 12 months exceed the so-called temperature limit, nothing bad on a global scale. Claims of climate catastrophe after we pass the 1.5C temperature limit, never happened. These limits are nothing more than political discourse from the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, as explained here Associated Press Article: Magic 1.5: What is behind the elusive key goal of climate talks. The AP wrote, “either way the ‘1.5 and 2 degree C thresholds are somewhat arbitrary,” Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson said in an email. ‘Every ten degrees matter!’”
Now, even beyond arbitrary limits, the “crisis” of progressive politicians and alarmists in the mainstream media have warned that failure is imminent.
First let’s check the global temperature. The source of all the news comes from a recent press release by Copernicus, part of the European Commission. A graph from Copernicus, seen in Figure 1 below, illustrates the “limits” and 12-month temperature peaks:
Note the clear peak in Figure 1 above at 1.63 ° C. In Figure 2 below, there are details given by Copernicus about the peak of the annual temperature.
Notice in Figure 2 that global temperatures have declined from the peak that occurred 5 months ago. Soon, it will be below the 1.5°C mark.
As you can see in Figure 1 and confirmed in Figure 2, the clear upshoot of this temperature is not like anything before in the temperature records. It makes you wonder; why? Did humans suddenly burn fossil fuels to create more carbon dioxide in a year?
No, but there is a unique volcanic eruption. According to this article from NASA Research, Volcanic eruptions send enough water vapor into the stratosphere to cause rapid changes in chemistry. They say:
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano on January 15, 2022, produced the largest underwater explosion ever recorded by modern scientific instruments, spewing more water and volcanic gas than any other eruption in the satellite era.
In case you didn’t know, NASA also says in this article The Steamy Relationship: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Increases Earth’s Greenhouse Effect that water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas:
Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas on earth. It is responsible for about half of the Earth’s greenhouse effect – a process that occurs when gases in the Earth’s atmosphere absorb the sun’s heat. Greenhouse gases keep our planet alive. Without it, Earth’s surface temperature would be about 59 degrees Fahrenheit (33 degrees Celsius) cooler.
So, imagine the first time in history since humans have been able to measure it, the eruption of Mount Hunga Tonga injected a massive, megaton level (146 megatons megatons) of water vapor into the stratosphere never seen before. See Figure 3 below.
According to a scientific paper published shortly after the eruption, “Observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA’s Aura satellite immediately after the eruption showed that this single event increased water vapor in the normally dry Earth’s stratosphere by about 10%. With the extra water vapor (the most potent greenhouse gas) is injected into the atmosphere, global warming is guaranteed.
Another scientific article titled Tonga Eruption May Temporarily Push Earth Closer to 1.5°C of Warming says, “Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai underwater eruption sent megatons of water vapor into the stratosphere, contributing to future global warming . 5 years.”
In addition, there is direct ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere. NASA Research said: “Our measurements show that the stratospheric ozone concentration dropped rapidly – up to 30% in the air with the highest water vapor concentration – after the eruption.”
The EPA said, “The ozone layer in the stratosphere absorbs part of the radiation from the sun, preventing it from reaching the surface of the planet.” So, with less ozone, more sunlight reaches the planet’s surface than usual, and the extra energy gets stuck in the atmosphere due to increased water vapor as a greenhouse gas. The explosion has a double effect on the earth’s atmosphere, you can bet under a dollar that the planet will get warmer.
And yes. This completely natural volcanic event created a temperature spike of up to 1.63 ° C seen in Figure 1. Meanwhile the media, whether by accident or by accident, remained ignorant of how the atmosphere responded to the volcano. Therefore, they still write confusing horror stories, blaming humans for the recent increase in temperature due to the use of energy and modern transportation, such as what CNN wrote in a recent article about the global temperature increase:
The climate crisis is driven primarily by humans burning coal, oil and gas for energy. El Niño, a natural climate pattern that originates in the Pacific Ocean, has also boosted temperatures in much of the world in recent months.
There is no mention of volcanoes or water vapor eruptions causing human deaths. surprised? don’t be. This is a pattern of shame “the world is getting hotter and it’s your fault” has been repeated over and over again by the media for years. While the evidence that humans are not to blame for the warming spike is now abundant and readily available, the media ignores it. Although nothing bad happened on a global scale from the Hunga-Tonga volcanic event, they seem to focus more on the false narrative of the “climate crisis,” rather than factual reporting. It is shameful and wrong.
Meanwhile, the warning of a temperature increase of 1.5C over a year, but the occurrence of extreme weather and the number of deaths due to temperature and weather is not an unusual increase. This undermines years of claims by the mainstream media that more severe and more frequent extreme weather events and more deaths will be the inevitable consequences of exceeding the 1.5C temperature threshold. Chalk it up to one more in a long train of failed predictions.
What will the media say in a few years when the temperature drops as the extra water vapor disappears and the ozone returns to normal? Maybe he’ll hug Emily Littela with a “don’t care!”
Anthony Watts
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at the Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and now does daily radio forecasts. He has developed weather graphic presentation systems for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as peer-reviewed papers together on climate issues. He operates the world’s most viewed website on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.
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