Brittany West had planned to put down roots and build a life with her fiance and new baby in Orange County, a place she thought would be ideal to raise children.
But it’s getting harder to make ends meet, even though West and her fiance, Ben, have a solid income. Low rents in an Irvine condo, higher prices for basic items and expensive childcare for their 9-month-old son have pushed the couple away from plans to leave Orange County for more affordable digs in the Sacramento area.
It’s a move he’s long rejected, but he’s looking at a few other options.
“We don’t want to leave. It’s beautiful here. Our friends are here. My fiance’s family is here. We’ve built a community in Orange County,” said West, 32. “We just can’t live here.”
The couple’s story is familiar in Southern California, where young people struggle to buy starter homes and retirees worry their money won’t last.
A UC Irvine poll released Friday shows that more than a third of Orange County residents are actively considering moving elsewhere. The main reason? High cost of housing and basic necessities, including food and gas.
In total, the poll found, more than 50% of respondents are considered “potential leavers,” with women, people under 40, nonwhite residents and those without a college education more likely to leave than others.
California has been losing citizens to other states for more than two decades. But in Orange County, residents are more likely to move to California than to places like Texas and Arizona.
“Contrary to what some people think, we’re not driving people to other states because there’s something wrong with California,” said UCI’s Dean of Social Ecology, Jon Gould, who led the poll. “What the polls are telling us is that there’s a giant storm brewing that may be unleashing the county with an affordable housing shortage.”
Quality of life, weather, proximity to family and access to healthcare rank among the main reasons people choose to stay in the area – at least for now. But the lure of more affordable living is strong.
Rent prices in Orange County rose 22% in 2021 before leveling off a year later and increasing modestly in 2023. Prices have risen again this year, according to data from the Apartment Directory.
In Irvine, the median price for one-bedroom rentals in August was over $2,500 per month, down just under 1% from last year. In Anaheim, the average rent for a one bedroom is just $2,000 and is up 1.8% from 2023.
The two-bedroom condo West rents with her fiancé for about $3,100 a month has felt cramped since their son was born. The second bedroom is a combination home office for the couple and a nursery.
“He’s 9 months old and just started crawling,” West said. “We’re getting out of this place in a hurry.”
The couple, who wanted to have another child, looked at larger units in the complex and in other Orange County cities, but paying several hundred dollars a month just wasn’t feasible. His dream of buying a home in Orange County has been on the back burner for a while, West said.
In the Sacramento area, they found a single-family home with a backyard for less than their monthly payments.
Among people who have considered leaving Orange County, 78% list housing costs as a very important factor. Cost of living was a close second at 76%, ahead of other quality-of-life issues including taxes, crime, traffic, the job market, political climate and proximity to family outside the region, according to the poll.
Even those who have recently moved to the district say housing costs are a serious problem. Among new arrivals surveyed, 71% cited a lack of affordable housing as their biggest problem, ahead of traffic, homelessness, local leadership, taxes, development and crime.
“We just haven’t built enough houses in Orange County,” said Wallace Walrod, chief economic adviser to the Orange County Business Council. “It’s hard to do, and we need to build more housing units at all ends of the spectrum — homeownership, apartment and rental opportunities at all different income levels.”
The result could be a continuation of current trends, including reduced state aid to local schools due to declining enrollment, increased traffic congestion as more workers travel from other areas, and increased challenges for companies trying to retain employees, Walrod said.
The country has pushed cities to build more housing, with lawmakers requiring local governments to increase development and housing density. However, its shortcomings remain acute.
In 2020, the Southern California Assn. The government is targeting Orange County to zone for about 183,000 additional units. Many cities are pushing back, arguing that more housing will accelerate the urbanization of suburban communities.
“Orange County is a place where people want to be, and I think what’s surprising is that we haven’t seen the county have coordinated leadership to address the issues that affect people,” Gould said.
Even those who were able to buy a home decades ago in Orange County are feeling the pinch. This is of particular concern to residents approaching retirement age.
Ronny Shaver, 66, spent most of his life in Orange County, where he took over his father’s auto repair shop in Santa Ana. But when he started looking to slow down, he realized the money would go further outside Orange County.
So Shaver and his wife sold their condo in Ladera Ranch and moved to a suburb west of Knoxville, Tenn. Although he misses the community he has in Orange County and the sunny, mild climate, he is sure he will never return.
“Now we have a house that’s four times the size on a big lot that’s paid for and money in the bank,” Shaver said. “It’s hard to beat.”