A citizen looks in front of posters of candidates for the 14th presidential election in the streets ahead of the early presidential election in Tehran, Iran on June 27, 2024.
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The lowly moderates and protégés of Iran’s top leader are neck and neck in the vote count in a snap presidential election marked by voter apathy over economic hardship and social restrictions.
More than 14 million votes have been counted so far in Friday’s vote, in which the only moderate candidate Massoud Pezeshkian has won more than 5.9 million votes and the hardline challenger of former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili more than 5.5 million, provisional results from interior ministry.
Some insiders said turnout was around 40%, lower than what Iran’s clerical authorities had expected, while witnesses told Reuters that polling stations in Tehran and several other cities were not crowded.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency said a run-off election was “very likely” to choose the next president following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.
If no candidate wins at least 50% plus one vote from all ballots cast, including blank votes, the run-off between the top two candidates is held on the first Friday after the results are announced.
The election coincides with heightened regional tensions over fighting between Israel and Iran’s allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its rapidly advancing nuclear program.
While the election may not bring major changes to the Islamic Republic’s policies, the outcome could affect the succession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 85-year-old supreme leader, who has been in power since 1989.
The clerical establishment strives for high voter turnout to compensate for the crisis of legitimacy caused by the public’s dissatisfaction with economic difficulties and curbs on political and social freedom.
The next president is not expected to lead any major policy changes on Iran’s nuclear program or support for militia groups in the Middle East, as Khamenei calls all matters of state concern.
Supporters of Saeed Jalili, a candidate for the June 28 presidential election, chant slogans at a campaign meeting in Tehran, Iran, Monday, June 24, 2024. Jalili is among six candidates approved for the June 28 election to replace president Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash.
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However, the president runs the government on a day-to-day basis and can influence the tone of Iran’s foreign and domestic policies.
Pezeshkian’s views provide a contrast to Jalili’s, advocating detente with the West, economic reform, social liberalization and political pluralism.
A staunch anti-Westerner, Jalili’s victory will signal the possibility of even more antagonists in the foreign and domestic policies of the Islamic Republic, analysts said.
limited options
The election is a contest between a tightly controlled group of three hardline candidates and one moderate loyal to the top leader. The hardline watchdog approved only six from an initial pool of 80 and two hardline candidates dropped out.
“Based on unconfirmed reports, the election will likely go to the second round… Jalili and Pezeshkian will compete in a run-off election,” Tasnim reported.
Critics of the clerical establishment say that low turnouts in recent years show the legitimacy of the system has eroded. Turnout was 48% in the 2021 presidential election and a record low 41% of people voted in the parliamentary elections in March.
All candidates have vowed to revive the flagging economy, plagued by mismanagement, state corruption and sanctions re-imposed since 2018, after the US ditched the Tehran nuclear pact.
“I think that Jalili is the only candidate who raises the issue of justice, fighting corruption and giving value to the poor. … Most importantly, he does not link Iran’s foreign policy to the nuclear deal,” said Farzan, 45. -an old artist in the city of Karaj.
Voters are divided
Pezeshkian, committed to Iran’s theocratic government, is backed by a reformist faction that has largely been marginalized in Iran in recent years.
“We will respect the hijab law, but there should be no intrusive or inhumane behavior towards women,” Pezeshkian said after voting.
A man gestures as he raises a small election flag during a rally for reformist candidate Massoud Pezeshkian at Afrasiabi Stadium in Tehran on June 23, 2024 ahead of Iran’s upcoming presidential election.
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He cited the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman, in 2022 when she was detained by the moral police for allegedly violating the mandatory Islamic dress code.
The unrest sparked by Amini’s death was the biggest show of opposition to Iran’s clerical rulers in years.
Pezeshkian is trying to rekindle the spirit of reform-minded voters who have largely stayed away from the polls for the past four years as a largely youthful population on political and social issues. They may also benefit from the failure of rivals to consolidate their hardline votes.
In recent weeks, Iranians have used the hashtag #ElectionCircus on X, with some activists at home and abroad calling for a boycott, saying the high turnout would only legitimize the Islamic Republic.