Kerala will remain a stronghold of the Congress-led United Democratic Front, as opinion polls predict a win for the alliance in the southern state with 15 to 18 seats. The BJP-led NDA is likely to open its account with at least one seat for the saffron party in the southern state.
According to News18 Mega Exit Poll survey, the Congress alone is predicted to win 12 to 15 seats, while the BJP can win one to three seats. This could be a significant development for the saffron party as Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also said that the party will be dominated by the Left Democratic Front (LDF), which may have two to five seats.
Pollsters have predicted UDF dominance in Kerala, where MP and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is the candidate from the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency.
In the union territory of Lakshadweep island, meanwhile, it is also predicted to enter the INDIA block. The election to Lakshadweep’s single seat in the Lok Sabha was held in the first phase of the election on April 19, which recorded a voter turnout of 83.88 percent. The constituency witnessed a fierce battle between MP and NCP leader (Sharad Pawar) Mohammed Faizal and Congress leader Hamdullah Sayeed. Yusuf TP from NCP (Ajit Pawar) also participated.
What are the stakes in Kerala?
A total of 20 Lok Sabha seats are up for grabs in Kerala, which voted in phase one during the second round on April 26, recording an average voter turnout of 71.27 percent. The overall voter turnout has decreased from the 2019 general election. This time, at least nine seats recorded voter turnout below 70 percent and none of the seats reported more than 80 percent. Pathanamthitta (63.37 percent) got the lowest number in 2024, while Vadakara (78.41 percent) reported the highest.
Of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, eight have more than 80 percent voter turnout in 2019. In the remaining 12 seats, the voter turnout is more than 70 percent. In 2019, the number of voters in the country was 77.84 percent. In 2019, Kannur got the highest voter turnout in the country at 83.28 percent, and the capital Thiruvananthapuram got 73.74 percent voter turnout, the lowest among the seats.
Kerala has consistently recorded the highest voter turnout. It has become a stronghold for the Congress, with the old party-led United Democratic Front winning 19 out of 20 seats. The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front won only one seat while the BJP-led NDA failed to win.
The key candidates in the fray are Congress’ Rahul Gandhi, KC Venugopal, Shashi Tharoor, K Muraleedharan and K Sudhakaran; Elamaram Kareem, KK Shailaja, C Raveendranath and MV Jayarajan of the CPI(M); and K Surendran, Suresh Gopi, V Muraleedharan and Rajeev Chandrasekhar.
Constituencies to watch out for are Wayanad – where Rahul Gandhi will be up against CPI’s Annie Raja and BJP’s K Surendran – Kannur, Alappuzha, Thrissur, Attingal, Pathanamthitta, Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Kottayam, and Malappuram.
Gandhi, who is an MP from Wayanad, as a candidate from the constituency, emphasized the strategic importance of Kerala for the Congress. This time, Shashi Tharoor is facing a tough fight from union minister Rajeev Chandrashekar in Thiruvananthapuram. The BJP is hoping to break the backs of prominent candidates like union minister, veteran politician AK Antony’s son Anil Antony, who is contesting from Pathanamthitta, as well as actor Suresh Gopi.
Kerala is one of the few states that has effectively countered the “Modi wave” in two consecutive elections. The saffron party did not win any seats in the state in 2014 and 2019. However, looking at the exit poll results, that may change this time.
The UDF and LDF have dominated the Kerala Lok Sabha seats, with the latter’s vote share recording a significant decline in 2019. The Congress-led UDF, in fact, swept Kerala in the polls before registering a historic landslide victory.
Counting of votes for the Lok Sabha polls will be held on June 4. Exit polls are numbers that predict the expected winner and the margin of victory and are usually released on the last day of voting by various agencies based on the data collected. These predictions are made based on voter feedback collected by survey agencies after the polls. Although these predictions are not always correct and have previously been scrutinized, the idea behind polls is to reflect public sentiment before announcing the actual results.
How is the News18 Mega Exit Poll conducted?
The News18 Poll Hub survey covers all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of the Lok Sabha constituencies in the state. In each Lok Sabha constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using structured questionnaires, which were translated into 11 regional languages. For phases one to six, interviews were conducted ‘the day after’, as they are known to produce more reliable responses, and traditional exit polls – asking people to leave the polling booth – were conducted for Phase 7.
A total sample size of 93,240 in 21 countries was planned, but more than 95,000 have been achieved. In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies are covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. At each polling station, investigators are trained to conduct 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with inked fingers per household. In the case of polls, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted with those who came out after voting, every fifth person stopped for an interview.
Direct checks by field managers and senior executives, geo-tagging of interviews and telephonic return checks for 20% of the sample in each country are among the measures taken to maintain quality.
You can see live updates of Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Exit Polling here News18.com. To catch accurate predictions and timely information, check our website. Stay tuned for more updates.
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