Vice President Kamala Harris is rising in recent polls in the critical swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The easiest path to 270 electoral votes for Harris is through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but renowned poll analyst Nate Silver, founder of ABC’s FiveThirtyEight and now Silver Bulletin Substack, called this “about the closest election we’ve seen” on the Risky Business podcast.
While Harris still has the potential to pull off victory without Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, most analysts see these states as key bellwethers for a chance to win.
A new poll released Thursday by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov shows Harris leading in Pennsylvania and Michigan, a good sign for Democrats, although the margins remain close. Here is a closer look at the data.
New Michigan Poll
Recent polls show Harris with a five-point lead over former President Donald Trump in Michigan. The results released are from an online-based survey conducted between September 11 and 19.
“For swing states, this margin is good news for the vice presidential campaign,” said Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, assistant professor of political science at UMass Lowell and associate director of the Center for Public Opinion, in an email to Newsweek.
The poll shows undecided voters in Michigan are in “low single digits for support of both candidates,” according to Castro Cornejo. He said the number could not change in the country between now and Election Day.
“The Trump campaign has negative favorability in Michigan that must be overcome if it wants to remain competitive in the state,” Castro Cornejo said.
By comparison, Silver’s election model shows Harris leading Michigan with 49.1 percent of the vote to Trump’s 46.8 percent. Harris has gained .3 points over the past week. However, Trump has undergone an even bigger change over the past month by one point.
Trump remains unpopular among voters, while perceptions of Harris have flattened, according to the UMass/YouGov poll. Trump is viewed favorably by 41 percent of respondents, and 56 percent view him poorly. While 47 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Harris, and 47 percent said they did not like it.
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
New Pennsylvania Poll
UMass / YouGov also polled likely voters in Pennsylvania, where it was shown that Harris and Trump continue to face a close race at 48 percent and 46 percent respectively. Other candidates on the ballot did not receive more than one percent of support from respondents in Pennsylvania. Another four percent are still undecided.
“The presidential race remains very close in Pennsylvania with the coming weeks being an important time for the campaign,” Castro Cornejo said. “As can be expected in a highly competitive race with some undecided voters, voting strategy will be critical to mobilizing supporters and making sure they go to the polls on Election Day.”
According to the Silver Bulletin, Pennsylvania has a 33 percent chance of voting this year. Silver said in his podcast that Harris’s lead was more than one point in Pennsylvania, which “is the state’s most important tipping point.” Opinion polls in seven swing countries are at 2.5 points.
The Silver Bulletin aggregate poll for Pennsylvania showed Harris ahead with 48.8 percent of the vote, compared to Trump’s 47.3 percent. Since last week, Harris has gained .2 points, but Trump has gained .4 from last month.
“If you had an election today, Harris was ahead in the state by 276 electoral votes,” Silver said on the Risky Business podcast. He added that this is if the Democratic nominee “holds the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania plus Nevada.”
Without Nevada, Harris would be at 270, one vote more than the number of electoral votes needed to win the election. Overall, Harris has gained about one percent of the vote since the presidential debate against Trump, he said.
“That might not seem like a big deal, but it really is,” Silver said, “because both elections come down to one or more.”
AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin
What the National Poll Shows
The Silver Bulletin aggregate poll showed Harris winning nationally with 49 percent of the vote and Trump receiving 46.2 percent.
FiveThirtyEight’s national poll has Harris at 48.5 percent of the vote. This is a 2.7 point lead over Trump, who was shown on September 26 as receiving 45.8 percent of the vote.
A Sept. 26 RealClearPolitics poll showing polling results from Sept. 11 to Sept. 25 showed Harris with a two-point lead, with 49.1 percent of the vote and Trump receiving 47.1 percent.
Current predictions have Harris at a 75.2 percent chance of winning the overall popular vote. There is a 20.3 percent chance that he wins the popular vote but loses in the Electoral College.
“Stay while he’s gone,” Silver posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
However, the national aggregator essentially offers a general “pulse check” on the popular vote and does not consider or consider the Electoral College votes, which determine the election. The Oval Office is won by a candidate who gets 270 Electoral College votes, not if they win the popular vote. In 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College, so Trump won the election.
