Vice President Kamala Harris hopes her shortened presidential campaign will be like the strongest competitive sports team at the end of the season.
Harris took the reins at the top of the Democratic ticket in July after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race to “focus solely on (his) duties as President” for the rest of his term. Since then, Harris has consistently cut into some of the poll leaders of former President Donald Trump and polls that predict the Republican candidate will win back the White House.
Now, there are more recent indications that the Democratic nominee is heating up just in time to defeat Trump.
Iowa Poll Shows Harris ‘Surprising’ Trump Lead
Just days before the election, a new poll by one of America’s most trusted pollsters has Harris leading Trump by three points in deep red Iowa.
A new poll, conducted by Selzer & Co Des Moines List and Mediacom released on Saturday, prompting poll analyst Nate Silver to write a quick analysis, calling the poll “shocking.”
Trump carried Iowa by 9.5 points in 2016 and 8.2 points in 2020. Former Democratic President Barack Obama won Iowa in 2008 and 2012.
For Harris, polls show strong momentum among women and older voters in Iowa, and perhaps, in other swing states and nationwide. At Des Moines Register reported that Harris had a 20-point lead among women (56 to 36 percent) and a 63 to 28 lead among women over 65.
Independent voters in Iowa also appeared to be swinging Harris’ way, with independent women voting for Harris by 28 points, though independent men edged Trump by a smaller margin.
The latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, released Sunday, shows Harris only losing white women by 4 points, Biden’s group losing to Trump by 11 in 2020. The poll also shows the vice president only losing white men by 11 points. Biden lost that group by 23 in 2020.
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Kamala Harris Surges in Swing States: Final New York Times/Siena Poll
In addition, the Democratic nominee now leads Trump in all but one important swing state, according to the final. New York Times/ Siena College pre-election polls.
The results, released on Sunday, showed Harris leading in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona.
Since the last round of multiple/ Siena polls in the battle of the state, the momentum seems to have moved to Harris in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, three states where Trump previously led him, but where he is now ahead.
However, in “must win” Pennsylvania, polls have tightened in favor of Trump. Former multiple/The Siena poll, conducted between Oct. 7 and 10, had Harris leading by 4 points in the Keystone State—now tied.
Overall, polls still show the 2024 presidential election remains close, with an analysis of a new survey with an aggregate of 538 polls released on Sunday, giving Harris a 1-point national lead, with 47.9 percent of the vote against 46.9 percent for Trump. However, overall, 538 has Trump as the favorite with a 53 percent chance of victory against 47 percent for Harris.
On Sunday, the Trump campaign sent out a press release specifically targeting Selzer’s Iowa poll and multiple/ result of Siena.
“On Saturday, top Democrats appeared to have gained early access to a ridiculous outlier poll from Iowa conducted by Des Moines Register. Not so outdone, the New York Times reach directly with other polling data used to push the voter suppression narrative against President Trump’s supporters. Some in the media chose to amplify the mad dash to reduce and dampen voter morale. It’s not possible. Our voters are like President Trump: they are at war,” the statement said.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign via email Sunday afternoon for comment.
Harris Has Reasons for ‘Nauseating Optimism’ as Women Drive Early Voting
In the seven most hotly contested war states, women have cast 55 percent of the ballots so far, while men have contributed to 45 percent, according to new data from Catalist, a data company aligned with progressive causes.
NBC News reported Thursday that early ballot returns showed that of the more than 58 million mail-in and early ballots cast nationally, 54 percent were cast by women and 44 percent by men.
Harris has made defending abortion rights a centerpiece of his campaign—an issue that has become an electoral liability for Republicans—and has targeted women of all races and backgrounds, including Republican women who are dissatisfied with former President Trump.
Early voting data supports Democrats who see women as crucial to pushing Harris to the White House.
When given the Catalist figure, Ron Brownstein, CNN’s senior political analyst and senior editor for Atlantictold CNN host Amara Walker on Friday, “The number you mentioned is probably one reason for the change in the mood of the Democrats from the pervasive gloom, he said last week, to what they are calling nauseous optimism on the brink of the election-that women include a high percentage of early voting .”
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Betting Odds Shifting in Harris’ Favor
Over the past few days, the odds of Trump winning the election have been greatly reduced by several leading betting companies.
After the release of the Iowa poll showing Harris in front, BetOnline.ag quickly changed its odds.
Three days ago, Trump was 1/2 (-200) favorite in the BetOnline presidential market and Harris was a +180 underdog. Currently, the odds are on Trump (-140) and Harris (+120). Just a week ago, the odds of Harris taking the popular vote were 2/3 (-150), but now it’s 1/4 (-400).
Pennsylvania BetOnline odds have flipped completely. Before this week, Trump had a 2/3 (-150) chance of taking the Keystone State. Currently, Harris is the 5/6 favorite (-120).
Betfair, a British betting exchange, gave Trump a 60 percent chance of winning there, while Harris had a 40 percent chance. As of Sunday, the odds had dropped to 55.87 percent for Trump while Harris had risen to 44.24 percent.
Kalshi, another prediction market website, on October 29 gave Trump a 64 percent chance of victory against 36 percent for Harris. As of Sunday morning, the former president’s odds had dropped to 51 percent, and the vice president’s had risen to 49 percent.
With Polymarket, another prediction website, where customers can buy and sell stocks in the event they are in, the probability of winning Trump dropped from 67 percent on October 30 to 54 percent on November 3. At the same time, Harris’ probability increased from 33 to 46 percent. .
