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Japan’s ruling coalition has lost its majority in a judgmental result of Sunday’s general election, plunging the country into a state of political instability not seen for decades.
With the last constituencies, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and junior coalition partner Komeito have just 215 seats, down from 279 and short of the 233 needed to form a government.
It was the worst result for the LDP – which has ruled Japan for 65 of the past 69 years – since 2009, when it lost power.
A chastened Mr Ishiba told TV Tokyo that the election was “very difficult” for the party, whose reputation has been badly damaged by a corruption scandal involving money siphoned from party fundraising events.
Of the 46 candidates who admitted to financial reporting errors and one of the whips was withdrawn or partially lost the support of the party, only 18 were able to retain their seats. Analysts say the winner as an independent could be brought back into the LDP fold now that voters have approved it.
The results show a “severe” level of public distrust in the LDP as a result of the slush fund scandal, Yu Uchiyama, a professor of political science at the University of Tokyo, told The Independent.
“Unless Ishiba and the LDP seriously implement political reforms, they may not be able to regain people’s support,” he said.
Some of the biggest names in the ruling coalition failed to win seats, including Komeito leader Keiichi Ishii. “We have no choice but to rebuild the party,” after Mr. Ishii’s defeat, a party spokesman told reporters.
The opposition party that gained the most from the LDP’s collapse in support was the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), which exceeded expectations to take 148 seats, up from 98 in the last election.
Opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda celebrated the result at a press conference, telling the media: “We have accomplished our goal of preventing the ruling coalition from a majority, which is a major achievement.”
However, when the opposition parties collectively won enough seats to become a majority, a grand coalition between them seems impossible because of the complete political spectrum and drastically opposing views on important matters from fiscal policy and defense to the use of nuclear energy.
With 191 seats, the LDP remains the largest party and could still consolidate the government by adding a third coalition partner.
Mr. Ishiba declined to comment on the shape of the power-sharing talks until the full results are officially announced, but it is likely that he will join either the conservative People’s Democratic Party or the Japan Innovation Party. They take 28 and 38 seats.
Both parties have previously rejected a formal coalition with the LDP, but that means at best they will only join a partial coalition where the government will have to approach them to support legislation on a case-by-case basis.
This fragile government will certainly leave Mr. Ishiba vulnerable to leadership challenges from his own party. Waiting in the wings is Sanae Takaichi, the preferred choice of the ultra-conservative LDP faction that moderate Mr Ishiba defeated in last month’s leadership election.
Mr Ishiba appeared to have good approval ratings after the victory and called a snap election to try and capitalize on his honeymoon period. But his popularity tanked as U-turned in several policies – including the creation of an Asian version of NATO, support for same-sex marriage and the right for married individuals to choose to keep different surnames – after entering office.
Sunday’s election was held amid deep voter apathy in Japan, with little to no joy visible on the streets of Tokyo. Voters were told they would oust the LDP over the slush fund scandal but refused to vote for the opposition due to their lack of experience running the world’s fourth largest economy.
This sentiment was borne out by the turnout figures, which fell by almost two percentage points to 53.84 percent as of early 9am Monday morning. It was the third lowest in Japan’s post-war history, and one of the worst among developed countries.
