The story so far:
Sri Lanka will go to the polls on September 21 and the campaign is intensifying in just one week. The election is the first chance citizens will have to elect a leader, after the ouster of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, at the height of the economic downturn two years ago. The crisis, which has sparked unprecedented mass protests, is the island nation’s worst since Independence in 1948. Janatha Aragalaya (Sinhala term for people’s struggle) sought to shake up the country’s establishment by clamoring for “system change”. After Mr. Gotabaya fled the country and resigned from office, senior politician Ranil Wickremesinghe took his place through a parliamentary vote that won with the support of the Rajapaksa party, which still has a majority in the legislature.
Why is this election important?
It was the first poll to be held since the dramatic downturn in 2022 that saw residents queuing for fuel, petrol and medicine as they grappled with prolonged power outages. Elections for the country’s local government bodies, scheduled for last year, were postponed due to “lack of funds”, while provincial council polls were postponed indefinitely.
What is the difference?
Sri Lanka’s political and electoral landscape has undergone significant reconfiguration over the past few years.
The once formidable Rajapaksa, who dominated the country’s politics for almost two decades, is not focused on this election. The country’s two traditional parties – the center-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the right-wing United National Party (UNP) – have collapsed, and now exist only in the buttocks, remnants, and historical records. His breakaway formation seeks to distance himself from the parent while drawing from his base.
Outside the SLFP-UNP domain, the National People’s Power Alliance (NPP), led by Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP or People’s Liberation Front), has emerged as a third front challenging the old political order.
Unlike previous presidential elections, which were marked by bipolar political contests, next weekend’s polls are primarily a three-cornered race.
Who is the frontrunner?
A record 39 presidential candidates filed nominations for the September 21 election. One was killed and 38 were still in the race. Of these, Mr. Wickremesinghe, Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa, and another opposition politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake appear to be the leaders.
What political camp do you represent?
Although President Wickremesinghe was supported by Podujana Peramuna Sri Lanka Rajapaksas (SLPP or People’s Front which Rajapaksa carved from SLFP, that is why they are part of it. of) for the past two years, and is still leading the UNP, he is running as an independent candidate.
Mr. Premadasa is competing from the main opposition party, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB or the United People’s Front which broke away from the UNP). Mr. Dissanayake has been born by the NPP. The Alliance is a broad social coalition whose main constituent is the JVP, a party with Marxist-Leninist origins that led two Sinhalese youth armed uprisings against the state in the 1970s and 1980s.
In addition, Namal Rajapaksa, Hambantota legislator and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s son fled the SLPP.
What are they pitching?
Mr. Wickremesinghe, 75, campaigned on the “stability” plank. With the poll slogan “We can, Sri Lanka”, he asked for a mandate to continue the government’s economic reform agenda, created to meet the targets set by the International Monetary Fund program. He claimed credit for setting the bankrupt country on the road to recovery over the past two years.
The 57-year-old Mr. Premadasa promised to build a resilient economy where the fruits of development will reach all citizens and improve educational and governance opportunities with digital assistance. The former UNP deputy leader accused his former boss and current rival Mr. Wickremesinghe of siding with and protecting Rajapaksa. Mr Premadasa said becoming president would be a “win for all”.
Mr Dissanayake, 55, has promised change by “getting rid of corruption” and removing as much of the old political culture as possible. He blamed the country’s political elite, who have held power since Independence, for the collapse, and assured them that they could fix it with the people’s “national liberation movement”. He said his leadership would build a “progressive nation and a good life”.
How are the winners decided?
Sri Lanka follows a preferential election system where voters can mark up to three preferences against the names of presidential candidates listed on the ballot paper.
Candidates must secure 50% plus one vote to be declared the winner. If no candidate gets a majority vote, the second number of votes will be used to choose the winner. The preferential votes received by the top two candidates will be counted and the contestant with the most votes will be named the winner. About 17 million voters, out of Sri Lanka’s 22 million population, have registered to vote in this election.
What are the chances of a superior candidate?
A three-cornered race in a fragmented electorate makes it a challenge for any candidate to secure more than 50% of the vote.
After the devastating economic crisis, the electoral appeal of the top three candidates depends on whether their message speaks to the concerns of the general public, which is still struggling to cope with the high cost of living and a drastically changed lifestyle, marked by under-eating or under-nutrition in many cases . In addition to the vote of the Sinhalese, who make up nearly 75% of the population, the voting pattern of the island’s ethnic minorities, such as Tamils ​​​​north, and east; Malayah Tamils ​​from the mountains; and Muslims, will determine the winner.
How will the minority vote?
It’s hard to say because the Tamil and Muslim political landscape is also more fractured than ever.
In past elections, Tamils ​​in the north and east have consistently voted as a bloc against the Rajapaksas, who are accused of serious human rights abuses during and after the war. But in this election, no Rajapaksa will win. Mr. Namal’s last-minute candidacy appears to be more of an attempt to unify the party after many of its members decided to support Mr. Wickremesinghe.
Tamils ​​who live in the north and east of the island seem torn between choosing one of the frontrunners, or Tamil candidates fielded by some Tamil parties and civil society groups. It was a protest against the failure of southern leaders on justice, accountability, power sharing, and post-war economic development. The dilemma of the Tamil electorate is also related to the political leadership itself which is deeply divided over the presidential election and several other questions of policy and governance.
While the prominent Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) is backing Mr Premadasa, many other groups and politicians, including some in ITAK, are pushing for a “common Tamil candidate”, although some others have called for a boycott of the polls. .
The political representatives of Malaya Tamil generally support Mr. Wickremesinghe or Mr. Premadasa. Workers on tea and rubber plantations – whose Indian ancestors were brought down by the British two centuries ago to work on plantations in Sri Lanka – are looking for relief after the crisis and its aftermath. They are also demanding housing and land rights that have historically been denied them.
Although the main Muslim leaders are part of Mr. Premadasa’s alliance, communities living across Sri Lanka, voice different political views. This election is unlikely to see a bloc vote from the minority.
What are the challenges ahead?
The new President’s job will be far from easy. Sri Lanka is in the process of firming up a debt treatment plan with creditors and still has a long way to go before economic recovery is meaningful. Ordinary Sri Lankans are feeling the impact of the crisis. As real incomes fall and unemployment rises, many citizens are desperate to find work abroad.
Furthermore, Sri Lanka’s general election is also coming up. The country’s executive president will need legislative support for her — there are no female candidates running at this time — progressive policy. None of the main contestants can be sure of securing a parliamentary majority in the deeply divided legislature. The road ahead for Sri Lanka looks bumpy and uncertain at this point.
Published – 15 September 2024 22:40 IST
