Hungary’s populist Orbán will take over the presidency of the European Union

When Hungary takes over the leadership of the European Union on July 1, many politicians in Brussels will have the same thought: whether populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will use his role to improve his reputation as the bloc’s main spoiler.

Orbán in recent years seems to relish the opportunity to block, limit or delay important decisions of the European Union, regularly opposing many other leaders on issues such as the war in Ukraine, relations with Russia and China, and efforts to defend democracy and the rule of law.

Public opposition to EU policies and attitudes has long frustrated its partners in the bloc and pushed them to the fringes of the continent’s mainstream. Hungary’s motto for the presidency – Make Europe Great Again – raised eyebrows because of its similarity to the famous tagline of former US President Donald Trump.

The EU presidency rotates between member states, and while the position has no real power, it allows countries to prioritize the European agenda.

Now, as Hungary stays in the 27-nation bloc for the next six months, it is likely to keep up its anti-EU rhetoric, said Dorka Takácsy, a researcher at the Euro-Atlantic Center for Integration and Democracy.

But the timeline of the presidency – beginning with a long summer break and a transition period forming the European Parliament and a new executive commission – will give Budapest few opportunities to undermine the bloc’s priorities, he said.

“These six months are not long at all, which means … Hungary can do no harm, even according to critics,” Takácsy said.

As the Hungarian takeover approaches, leaders in Brussels are scrambling to implement key policy decisions while Belgium is still at the helm. On Tuesday, for example, the European Union launched membership talks with candidate countries Ukraine and Moldova.

Orbán was vocally opposed and threatened to block Ukraine’s candidacy. His government has also stepped up efforts by the European Union to supply much-needed funds to Ukraine.

But with Ukraine’s accession process already underway, Takácsy said, the most Hungary can do now in its presidency is to delay further steps towards EU membership, a process that in any scenario would take years.

“All important steps from the European side regarding Ukraine have been completed,” he said. “(Hungary’s) delay, according to most European leaders, has been calculated and considered as if something is most likely to happen.”

Orbán has long been accused of dismantling democratic institutions and violating EU standards on the rule of law, leading the bloc’s legislature in May to call for the presidency to be wrested from Hungarian hands.

In a resolution, the EU parliament emphasized that the democratic deficit raises the question “how Hungary can reliably carry out this task in 2024.” Two years ago, the European Commission froze billions of euros in funding to Budapest over concerns about a democratic backsliding by the government.

But some Hungarian officials insist that they plan to act constructively during their presidency. Last week, Hungarian minister for EU affairs János Bóka told reporters that “we will be honest brokers, working faithfully with all Member States and institutions.”

“Performing the functions of the presidency is our duty, but we see it mainly as an opportunity,” said Bóka. “At the beginning of the new institutional cycle, we can start the debate and set the agenda on the issues that are important to us.”

Among the issues prioritized by Hungary in the seven-point program is the enlargement of the European Union in the Western Balkans for countries like Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania through the “merit-based” procedure.

Budapest has also vowed to strengthen the EU’s external borders and step up against illegal immigration, and to tackle the “demographic challenge” involving Europe’s aging population – two priorities that reflect Orbán’s image as a staunch opponent of immigration and defender of family values.

But after years of campaigning portraying the EU as forcing unwanted policies on Hungary – Orbán has repeatedly compared membership in the bloc to more than four decades of Soviet occupation of his country – he may find it difficult to win back goodwill among his EU partners.

“The Hungarian government has used the image of Brussels as a punching bag,” Takácsy said. “Now it’s a bit difficult to communicate that in these short six months, we in Brussels are Hungarians fighting against war and fighting for freedom.”

With some advice for Orbán before Hungary assumes the role, the Belgian prime minister said the position “doesn’t mean you are the boss of Europe.”

“The presidency means you are the one who has to make compromises,” Alexander De Croo told reporters in Brussels on Thursday. “Being in a position where you have to compromise is an interesting position for at least once in your life, so I can definitely recommend it to Mr. Orbán.”