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Michael Voepel, ESPN Senior Writer
The 2024 WNBA playoffs will begin on September 22. If the regular season ended today, what would each of the eight teams currently in playoff position do to win the league title?
The first place New York Liberty, who have won seven in a row and are the only team so far to clinch a playoff spot, should just remain what they are: the best team in the league this season.
“I think what I want to see from our team is just the way we continue to get better,” New York’s Breanna Stewart said after the Liberty’s 94-74 victory over the Dallas Wings on Tuesday. “Everybody keeps saying, ‘Oh, you won the playoffs. Are you still playing hard?’ We want to keep that 1 point, we want the advantage in front and you see today, with two quarters we keep Dallas under 20.
“I don’t think we’ve done anything yet. Our record is pretty good, that’s for sure, but there’s a lot we need to improve on, and we don’t want to go too fast.”
The Las Vegas Aces are in fourth place in the standings, but as the two-time defending champion, they are considered next in the list of favorites to win the 2024 title.
Since the WNBA launched in 1997, the league has not been known for many upsets in the playoffs or unexpected teams winning titles. But it has happened. In 2021, the No. 6 Chicago Sky, who had a .500 regular season record that year, won the championship over the No. 5 seed Phoenix Mercury.
But since the league moved in 2016 to a playoff format in which the seeds of the top eight teams overall – instead of a field divided between the Eastern and Western Conferences with the top four teams from each – every title except for 2021 has been won by a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
However, making the playoffs at least means a team has a chance to win it all. Here’s a look at how the top eight teams are currently title contenders, ranked by what we think are their chances of taking the title.
1. New York Liberty (24-4)
Current place in the standings: 1
Previous titles: there is none
New York has played for the title five times, including last season’s 3-1 WNBA Finals loss to Las Vegas. The Liberty reached the Commissioner’s Cup final in June, falling to Minnesota after winning the title last year. Overall, New York did very well in 2024, getting high-level performances from guard Sabrina Ionescu and forwards Stewart and Jonquel Jones. Liberty and coach Sandy Brondello also have a good understanding of what is needed and can be consistent off the bench. It showed again on Tuesday, as Ionescu was out with neck pain and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton is yet to return from knee surgery. But the experience of playing together one more season has built Liberty’s confidence, too.
Liberty has been disappointed as a franchise, but remains focused on the present and the opportunity they have the key. This group is very capable. New York fans have been waiting a long time, but this may pay off.
2. Las Vegas Aces (17-9)
Current place in the standings: 4
Previous titles: 2022, 2023
As it stands, Aces and Liberty — who finished the season 1st and 2nd last in the standings — could meet in the semifinals, which would be a blockbuster. Las Vegas lost just six regular season games last season, so this year’s team has struggled even more. Point guard Chelsea Gray’s absence from the lineup until July 2nd due to injury has had a big impact on why Las Vegas hasn’t played as well as expected this season.
But with Gray back, A’ja Wilson in the midst of a near-certain MVP season and Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum also among the league’s elite, the Aces are still a formidable force. The return of veteran Tiffany Hayes from retirement to join the Aces also helped, as did the Las Vegas championship experience under coach Becky Hammon. And it might be to the Aces’ advantage to not be considered the clear favorite this year.
Current place in the standings: 3
Previous titles: 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017
The Lynx lead the WNBA in defensive rating and won the Commissioner’s Cup final against New York in June. Napheesa Collier is one of the best players in the league, averaging a double-double. Fellow forward Alanna Smith has built on a breakthrough season last year in Chicago, and guard Courtney Williams, who was also previously with the Sky, has fit in well in Minnesota, too. Guard Kayla McBride is having one of her best seasons in her 11th year in the league.
The Lynx just traded for forward Myisha Hines-Allen, who won a title with Washington in 2019. She is a reliable position that should fit what the Lynx are doing. Minnesota won all four titles under current coach Cheryl Reeve, so she knows the steps to get there.
Current place in the standings: 2
Previous titles: there is none
The Sun’s core trio of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones have been bolstered by career-best seasons from guards DiJonai Carrington and Tyasha Harris. The Suns, who started the season 9-0, traded for guard Marina Mabrey on July 17 to add another scoring drive, and she has played well for Connecticut so far.
The Suns continue to be one of the most reliable defensive teams in the league. Can they stay up and boost the offense a little more? And can this team do better than past Sun teams that have come close to the championship but never managed to beat it? The Suns have never gotten the extra “rest” that could have tipped the scales in their favor in past WNBA Finals appearances. But led by smart vets Thomas and Bonner, they’ll fight anyone.
5. Phoenix Mercury (15-13)
Current place in the standings: 6
Previous titles: 2007, 2009, 2014
The Mercury realistically haven’t done much to give them the benefit of the doubt so far this season, and we’re listed here ahead of Indiana despite the Fever beating Phoenix 3-0. What do you give? This could be Diana Taurasi’s last season, which could be a motivating factor for her and the team.
There is also past WNBA championship experience with players such as Taurasi, center Brittney Griner, guard/forward Kahleah Copper (with Chicago) and guard Natasha Cloud (with Washington). The team recently added forward Monique Billings to a seven-day contract; if he stays on the roster he will fill a need inside. Finally, there’s a feeling that Mercury hasn’t played its best yet, so maybe it’s still to come.
Current place in the standings: 5
Previous titles: 2004, 2010, 2018, 2020
The Hurricanes added veterans such as forward Nneka Ogwumike and guard Skylar Diggins-Smith in the offseason. He was also brought to Gabby Williams. She played for the Storm for the past two seasons and now rejoins the WNBA after spending time with the French national team that won Olympic silver. Center Ezi Magbegor, who won bronze with Australia at the Olympics, has become an elite rim protector. And of course, the Storm have star guard Jewell Loyd, part of the United States gold medal team.
Can Seattle put the pieces together well enough to win a title in the post-Sue Bird era? The Storm are in the middle of the pack in terms of offensive rating, so they need to improve. Williams can make a very good defense.
Current place in the standings: 7
Previous titles: 2012
Everyone is now aware of one of the most repeated facts this season: The Fever have not made the playoffs since 2016. This is the goal they have set for 2024. It seems ambitious during the first difficult month. But look at what happened after that: Since June 13, the Fever are 10-5. The run includes three wins over Phoenix, plus wins over New York, Minnesota and Seattle. Indiana’s record in this regard is better than the Mercury (9-7) and Storm (9-6).
But we keep the seventh Fever on this list for now because it is a huge leap to go from a seven-season playoff drought to the title, led by a star who is only in the first (Caitlin Clark) and second (Aliyah Boston) WNBA seasons. . But it’s starting to have real playoff fever for the Fever, and this is the first step.
8. Chicago Sky (11-16)
Current place in the standings: 8
Previous titles: 2021
After the first week back from the Olympics, Sky was looking more at the bottom team in the standings — the Atlanta Dream — than thinking about the idea of winning the title. Dream can make a playoff surge, trying to overcome Chicago or Indiana. The idea of the Sky that will run like 2021 is not possible, because it is a more experienced team.
However, freshmen Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso have NCAA titles on their resumes, and the Sky looks at its best when both are playing great games at the same time. Reese has been one of the top rebounders in the WNBA. Guard Chennedy Carter has led the Sky in scoring since her return to the WNBA. But Chicago as a team is in the bottom three in the league in scoring, which makes it challenging to think that the Sky can win three consecutive playoff series to take the championship.
