Harris vs Trump: Who is leading in the presidential polls

In less than 35 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will face Donald Trump when America votes in the 2024 election.

Vice presidential hopefuls Tim Walz and JD Vance will debate tonight at 9:00 PM ET — a crucial moment for the running pair to showcase their own political skills.

Polls show that Vance’s popularity remains at a record high, while Walz is more popular than all the current VP and presidential candidates; and the bet chooses the Governor of Minnesota as the winner tonight.

The candidates are gearing up for a strong final campaign, with the needle ready to swing. So how will Harris and Trump fare in November?

Harris has a 2.6-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by Five Thirty Eight. On average, Harris has been slightly ahead of Trump in national polls for several weeks.

Exclusive poll for The Independent suggests that the VP debate can make a mark in the presidential race, with two-thirds of Democrats saying that the choice of running mate is significant.

Meanwhile before tonight’s debate, Walz led Trump, Vance, and even Harris in terms of fun.

Walz has a +3.7 rating overall, according to a poll from FiveThirtyEight.

This has subsided since he was elected VP in August, but the mood remains positive.

Meanwhile Vance has an average -11 favorability score, which continues to plummet from -3.3 when he was first elected in July.

While Trump also has a negative -9.6 favorability score, Harris has broken through to a positive score for the first time in over three years, according to the FiveThirtyEight average.

His favorability is now only +1.1, breaking even from mid-September.

The September debate may be Harris’ chance to change public perception, and ultimately form a better opinion of himself and his campaign.

A major issue for voters

The most important issue that affects how people will vote in this election continues to be the economy, regardless of political affiliation.

A poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, of 2,500 US adults as of September 26, shows that abortion is considered the second most important issue, for 37 percent of voters, followed by immigration with 34 percent.

For Trump voters, however, the priorities are reversed.

More than half (57 percent) of Trump voters see immigration as one of their biggest issues, amid border security tensions and recent claims from Trump and Republicans about Haitian migrants.

Interestingly, health care and abortion are tied as the most important issues for Trump voters — 23 percent each.

Although Trump has advocated for an overhaul of Obamacare, in unsuccessful attempts throughout his presidency, he failed to outline an alternative health policy in September’s presidential debate.

Meanwhile, abortion is front and center for Harris Voters (55 percent); with Harris himself critical of the ban on abortion, after the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Health care is also a top priority for Harris voters (40 percent), followed by housing (23 percent).

country at war

Recent polls from the swing state Bloomberg/ Morning Consult has Harris ahead by +3 points on average, ranging from neck-and-neck with Trump to +7 point lead.

The poll of more than 6,000 registered voters in swing states was conducted from September 19-25, with a margin of error of 1 to 4 percent in each state.

In Pennsylvania, which hosted the first Harris-Trump presidential debate, Harris has increased his lead from +4 points to +5 points since August.

The state previously leaned toward Trump when President Joe Biden was on the Democratic ticket.

In Nevada, Harris has a solid 7-point lead over Trump, with 52 percent of the vote to 45 percent.

In Georgia, the two candidates are tied at 49 percent each, while Harris’ 5-point lead in Wisconsin has shrunk to 3 points ahead of Trump.

Harris is also 3 points ahead in Michigan and Arizona, and 2 points ahead in North Carolina.

While the economy remains a top issue for swing state voters, the perceived “competence gap” has narrowed: 45 percent of swing state voters think Harris can better handle the economy, slightly behind Trump at 49 percent.

It’s worth watching separately New York Times Polls earlier this month showed a lead for Trump in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. This variation shows that the swing state is still open to change before November.

Independent

A separate national Morning Consult poll, of 11,000 likely voters nationwide from Sept. 20-22, showed Harris with a 5-point lead overall.

The tracker poll has Harris leading among elusive independent voters — by +4 points overall — with 46 percent to Trump’s 42 percent.

However, this margin is unchanged from the same poll in mid-August, when Harris had 42 percent of the independent vote and Trump had 38 percent (a 4-point lead).

What did change was that the number of independent voters who were undecided, or voted for a third candidate, dropped from one in five (20 percent) to one in 10 (12 percent).

Please note that these undecided voters are independent voters who can vote. It means that if they make their choice, this is likely to swing the odds in favor of the candidate.

Interestingly, 6 percent of independents still plan to vote for a third-party candidate, even now that Robert F Kennedy Jr has endorsed Trump.

With Cornel West, Jill Stein and Chase Oliver still in play, it remains to be seen how many independent votes they will attract on Election Day.

Who will vote?

A YouGov/Economist The poll has Harris with a three-point lead among registered voters, at 47 percent and Trump at 44 percent. The poll showed a 25-point margin for Harris among young voters, ages 29 and under.

However, according to the same poll, the younger generation is also the least committed to voting, with 13 percent of 18-29-year-olds surveyed saying they would “probably” vote, while 3 percent would not vote or were still unsure. .

That’s a total of 16 percent who are on the fence or don’t vote, higher than any other age group, and higher than the average of 9 percent. Only 65 percent of 18 to 29-year-olds polled said they would definitely vote in November.

This compares to 77 percent of 30 to 44 year olds, 85 percent of 45 to 64 year olds, and 94 percent of the 65+ age group.

Although the numbers look bleak, and indicate a sense of skepticism among younger voters, the overall picture is more than in 2020.

The same YouGov/Economist Polls at this stage in the 2020 presidential election show that almost a third of young people (27 percent) are not committed to voting in November, with 10 percent “probably” voting and 17 percent “definitely/probably” not voting.

Arizona: major problem

In Arizona – a historically Republican state that has 11 electoral college votes and switched to Biden in 2020 – polls show inconsistent leads for Harris and Trump.

Trump’s campaign has made frequent stops in the country over the summer.

In the state that borders Mexico, about one in five (19 percent) of Arizona voters said immigration was the most important issue influencing their vote, according to the same poll.

It’s second to the economy, which is the number one issue affecting voters across the state and nationwide.

A majority (51 percent) of Arizona voters believe Trump is better equipped to handle top-level issues, which has stalled since August when Harris was slightly more reliable.

This suggests that, despite overall enthusiasm for Harris’s debate performance, Arizona voters may favor Trump and his approach to key issues. As a predominantly Republican state, this is not surprising.

Demographics

A separate poll from The New York Times and Siena College in September had Trump and Harris in a national deadlock, each at 47 percent of the vote among likely voters.

This is a slight change from the same poll in early September, which had Trump at +2 points ahead of Harris in a surprise result.

The new poll, taken after the September debate and of 2,437 likely voters, had 67 percent of respondents saying Harris did well in the debate, compared to 40 percent who thought Trump did well.

Harris remains ahead among women (12 points ahead), while Trump enjoys a 14-point lead among men.

In particular, Harris increased his vote share among the 34-year-olds after the debate, increasing by 7 percentage points to 58 percent of the vote and a 21-point lead over Trump.

Meanwhile, his lead in the 30-44 age group has shrunk, with Trump only 4 points behind; although Trump’s margin in the 45-64 age group has also decreased to only 2 points.

Make sense of the US election with The Independent experts in our exclusive virtual show ‘Harris vs. Trump: who will make history?’ Reserve your spot here.

Among white, college-educated voters, an early September poll showed a 12-point preference for Harris. After the debate, this group had the largest jump, with a 25-point lead for Harris with 61 percent of the vote.

Interestingly, pre-debate polls from The New York Times showed that nearly a third of voters (28 percent) felt they needed to know more about Harris, compared to 9 percent who would say the same about Trump.

But the debate was good for Harris in that regard, as half of voters (50 percent) felt they “learned a lot” about him during the debate, with only a third saying the same about Trump, according to Trump. The New York Times poll.

A CNN snap poll after the first Trump-Harris debate showed that Harris could turn the tide with some voters.

After the debate, more voters now believe that Harris better understands the problems of people like him (44 percent) compared to Trump (40 percent). Before the debate, the opposite was true.

Make sense of the US election with The Independent experts in our exclusive virtual show ‘Harris vs. Trump: who will make history?’ Reserve your spot here.