Former President Donald Trump (L), and Vice President Kamal Harris
Reuters
Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump in the key battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
The poll found Harris beating Trump 50% to 46% among voters in all three states, though the lead was within the survey’s margin of error. Likely voters are a subset of the entire pool of registered voters surveyed.
From Monday to Thursday, the poll surveyed 619 registered voters in Michigan and 661 registered voters in Wisconsin. From Tuesday to Friday, the poll surveyed 693 registered voters in Pennsylvania.
The head-to-head results are slightly different when looking at all registered voter respondents: Harris maintained a four-point lead in Wisconsin, but had a three-point lead in Pennsylvania and actually lagged behind Trump by three points in Michigan.
The Times/Siena poll is the latest data point tracking the broader reshuffle that has occurred since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July and endorsed Harris to take over as the Democratic presidential nominee. Although polls still show the candidates neck-and-neck, it is clear that Harris has fundamentally changed the state of the race from just one month ago.
In the weeks since Biden’s exit, Harris has made up a lot of lost polling ground for the Democratic ticket and even taken Trump’s lead in some cases.
In May, even before his presidential debate performance in June, a Times/Siena poll found Biden exactly tied with Trump in Wisconsin. Biden is trailing the Republican presidential nominee in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In a memo Saturday, the Trump campaign said the Times/Siena poll “dramatically increased” support for Trump among registered and likely voters.
“Once again, we are seeing a series of public surveys released with the clear purpose and intent of bolstering support for President Trump,” GOP pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Tim Saler wrote in the memo.
One result remained the same even through the shakeup of the Democratic party: The economy was the top polling issue among registered voters.
Recession fears were on full display last week after the stock market fell on Monday and struggled to recoup gains the following day. The market decline was part of a weaker-than-expected jobs report, fueling fears that the Federal Reserve’s failure to cut interest rates is putting too much pressure on the economy.
Trump has a nine-point lead with voters on his handling of the economy compared to Harris, according to a Times/Siena poll.
The Times/Siena poll was also conducted as voters processed Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who was selected on Tuesday after a turbocharged vetting process. Although Walz didn’t have national name recognition just two weeks ago, he was in the spotlight for his irreverent media interviews, friendly demeanor and pivot to politics after working as a high school teacher.
Despite Walz’s progressive policy record, some Democrats see his rural Midwest background as an opportunity to develop a Democratic coalition.
A Times/Siena poll found that Walz has a 36% approval rating among registered voters, the same as Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance. However, only 27% of respondents gave Walz an unfavorable rating versus 46% of voters for Vance.
Along with his poll results, Harris has enjoyed a boom in enthusiasm in the form of a record level of donations, new volunteer sign-ups and large rallies that fill all the arenas since starting his campaign for president.
With 87 days until the election and even fewer until early voting, the Harris campaign is already working to make sure the early hype translates into real votes at the ballot box.
“We’re the underdogs in this race, but we have the momentum, and I know exactly what we’re going to do,” Harris told a Philadelphia rally of more than 12,000 people on Wednesday.
