Hail Mary vs Bears and Jayden Daniels TDs impossible

ASHBURN, Va. — Every Friday, the Washington Commanders quarterbacks and those who coach them gather for a competition. He set up a yellow bin in the corner of the end zone and tried to throw the ball into the bucket from about 20 to 30 yards away. This is an opportunity to show your hand and accuracy during a friendly competition.

Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels has yet to drop one in the bucket. Others, including some coaches, have done so. But Daniels isn’t bothered by losing this competition.

“It’s not a moving target,” Daniels said.

He has a point.

In the game, when the perfect pass must be made – and when making throws is considered to have a low chance of success – Daniels stands out. He led the NFL with four touchdown passes that, according to Next Gen Stats, had a completion probability of 30% or less — the most memorable of which was Sunday’s 52-yard Hail Mary against the Chicago Bears. He has five touchdowns that he has a 30.4% chance of completing. He has the third-highest completion percentage in throws that have a 30% chance of completion or less, and 10.9 meters per attempt is the most in the NFL of any quarterback with at least 15 such attempts, according to ESPN Research.

Regardless of the situation, he feels confident in his ability to put the ball where he wants, “Washington backup quarterback Marcus Mariota, who has thrown one in the bucket, said. “Sometimes guys are in that situation and have hope, but he really managed that time.”

Daniels also has three completions on balls that have traveled 50 or more yards online. According to ESPN Research, this is the most since ESPN began tracking airfields in 2006.

“He’s not good at the bucket drill,” Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said, “but he’s good down the field.

Here’s a look at the four touchdowns that have the lowest chance of being completed:

‘Little nuances’ lead to TD vs. Ravens

Drama: Washington faces a doubleheader in its Week 6 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. Daniels connected with McLaurin in the back of the end zone from seven yards out to tie the score at 10.

Probability of completion: 28.1%

Jayden goes to Terry! @Commander binding.

📺: #WASvsBAL on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/qqTP2eMS1r

– NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024

On the play, Daniels first looked to the right side to receiver Olamide Zaccheaus, who started inside and then cut to the outside. Daniels braced for the throw but the cornerback took away the route. Daniels brought the ball down, reset his feet and found McLaurin running down the field toward the back of the end zone on the same side. Because Daniels was going through a fast progression, the security had gone down on Daniels’ first look and left a lane to hit McLaurin. It’s a textbook example of Daniels’ sound mechanics.

“It’s possible to time it up when people come open,” Commander passing game coordinator Brian Johnson said. “After the safety (bit), they create a window behind him … (Then) you can only tie on your feet, drive (the ball) with aggression. It’s a little nuance is done.

While the throw was difficult, Daniels’ teammates pointed to two other passes in the game that were better. One of them is another touchdown for McLaurin who has a 30.4% chance of completion. On that throw, Daniels delivered a perfect return pass as he took flight and would have been hit for a 6-yard score.

Three plays before the pass to McLaurin, on third-and-10, Daniels found tight end Zach Ertz for a 12-yard gain. Ertz cut behind linebacker Roquan Smith and Daniels threw the ball as he hit it and before Ertz crossed behind Smith to the opening. It has a 64.3% chance of completion, but Mariota is amazed at the throw.

“My goodness. That’s probably one of the better throws that I’ve seen in my career,” Mariota said. “That anticipation, that confidence to throw the ball is the next level.”

Hail Mary vs. Bears

Drama: The Commanders, trailing 15-12, were at their 48-yard line with two seconds left in their Week 8 game against the Bears. Daniels heaved a pass into the end zone that was tipped by Bears cornerback Tyrique Stevenson and fell into the hands of receiver Noah Brown for the game-winning touchdown.

Probability of completion: 24.2%

A;FK;JD;KJF;LAKEJFLKJVAL;KEJL;JF;EFJ;LFAKJ

JAYDEN DANIELS HAIL MARY! @COMMANDERS WIN! pic.twitter.com/BsQ0Z84Rko

– NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

While the probability of completion is not the most of Daniels’ touchdowns this season, it is also only a 1.4% chance of resulting in a touchdown. Daniels extended the play by 12.7 seconds, which allowed the receiver to get into position when he found a good spot to throw.

He dropped a pass that went 65.9 yards through the air.

“Just throw the ball up, give someone my shot. I didn’t see anything,” said Daniels. “I just heard people screaming on our side, hurry up the field. So I knew.”

Right guard Sam Cosmi said the ending “came out of a movie.” But Kingsbury says the storybook ending comes from Daniels’ mindset.

“He has a sense of fear about him when he plays. He lets it go and believes,” Kingsbury said. “And in practice, it’s not like he’s just trying to finish, he’s trying to make the perfect throw and he’s judging himself, which is what the greats do.”

Turned a ‘little chance’ into six points vs the Browns

Drama: Washington led the Cleveland Browns, 17-3, with 41 seconds left in the first half. On second-and-7 from the Browns’ 41, Daniels hit receiver Dyami Brown for a touchdown.

Probability of completion: 17.9%

FIRST pass TD in CRIB FOR @JayD__5

📺 #CLEvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/RF8N0D9W9L

– Commander Washington (@Commander) October 6, 2024

Two plays before Brown scored, Washington ran the same play but the pass was thrown elsewhere. Daniels ran the ball out of bounds on the Washington sidelines on the next play. As he ran back to the huddle, he stopped Kingsbury and proposed a play. Kingsbury didn’t hesitate to say yes.

Daniels, in shotgun formation, took a three-step drop, held the safety with his eyes and hit Brown in a three-yard stride into the end zone.

“They just took small chances,” Brown said. “A lot of times the percentage is low because a lot of people aren’t going to take that chance. You can’t assume, ‘Oh, chances are someone is going to finish this ball.’ (He was like), ‘Even if the opportunity is slim, I just might do it.'”

Daniels said it’s a matter of trust between him and the receiver.

“It’s not just me, it’s my teammates to come out and play hard,” he said. “That’s how you build a brotherhood. You have to trust each other to go out and make plays.”

‘Right to the bucket’ vs the Bengals

Drama: With 2:15 left in Monday night’s Week 3 game at the Cincinnati Bengals, the Chiefs led 31-26 but faced third-and-7 from the 27-yard line. The Bengals blitzed Daniels, who hit a tightly-covered McLaurin in the end zone.

Probability of completion: 10.3%

JAYDEN DANIELS. TERRY MCLAURIN. THE COMMANDERS.

📺: #WASvsCIN in ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/bP5qrpGN8q

– NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2024

McLaurin said they drew up this play on the sideline. He wanted to run a go-route vs cornerback Daxton Hill on the right side. He was hoping for press coverage, which meant McLaurin could just go to the lane and sprint to the goal line. But the Bengals played cover-zero and Hill lined up six yards from McLaurin on the snap.

Daniels threw the ball when he was hit by a free rusher and was with McLaurin at the 19-yard line. McLaurin made the catch about five yards into the end zone, helping Washington secure a 38-33 victory.

“It was one of the hardest throws we could have made because of the conditions and we didn’t do that in practice,” McLaurin said. “When I saw him die, I had to give him a second move. Some quarterbacks don’t know the timing because you don’t have a lot of space and he throws with enough air where it falls. right to the bucket.”

In buckets, really.