FanDuel Dinger Tuesday picks: 3 Best Bets for July 9th

FanDuel makes Tuesdays exciting through a promotion called “Dinger Tuesday,” which promotes the most fun thing to do when betting on MLB, which is: Betting on dingers.

Here’s how the promotion works: You receive a bonus bet of $5 (up to $25) for every home hit in a game featuring a player who is supported to play home.

For example, one of my favorite picks right now is Shohei Ohtani in the Dodgers-Phillies game. If there are four home run hits in that game – regardless of who hit them – you will receive $20 in bonus bets in your FanDuel account. The max you can get per game is $25, but you can bet on as many games as you want.

This is a fun promo, so let’s find the best way to attack on Tuesday, July 9th.

Play 1: Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+230) FanDuel

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET

Right off the bat it may look scary to take Ohtani to hit a home run when going up against Zack Wheeler. But Wheeler is weaker against left-handed hitters by a fair margin. Batting average allowed went from .153 against RHH to .231 against LHH, slugging from .221 to .406, wOBA from .197 to .316 and most importantly for us, HR/9 from 0.49 to 1.12. Looking deeper into the thrown ball stats, the fly ball rate allowed went from 30.7% against RHH to 42.1% against lefties, and the hit rate allowed went from 21.9% to 32.7%.

He’s worse against left-handed hitters at the plate, and seven of the 10 home runs he’s allowed have come against lefties. Not only is Ohtani a lefty, but this is also a great weather game for the lefty hitter in Philly. It was hot and humid with temperatures in the 90s (which helped with performance), but there was also a 10 MPH wind blowing out into right field, and Citizens Bank Park had short right field.

It also helps that Ohtani is an incredible batter.

He has the second best ISO rate in the MLB at .323, the second best barrel rate at 19.6%, the second best hard hit rate at 60% and the third fastest average exit velocity at 95.5 MPH. His numbers are impressive, and even better against right-handed pitching with his ISO rate rising to 38.1% against RHP, which would surpass Aaron Judge as the best ISO rate in MLB if extrapolated to all qualifiers. battery

Play 2: Jarren Duran to Hit a Home Run (+400) FanDuel

Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

Fenway Park is a funky stadium for lefties because they have an oddly proportioned right field that sticks out 380 feet and gets shorter as it heads toward center field, which is the opposite of a normal ballpark. However, with that being said, today is another good game from a weather perspective for lefties, because it is also hot and humid in Boston with the wind blowing out of the stadium. It wasn’t quite as hot as it was in Philly, but it was still a positive home game overall. Look at Duran, he’s a left-handed hitter who only wants to be targeted against right-handed pitching, as it is now.

In the whole season, Duran has an ISO level of .198, which is just below the “big” category as defined by FanGraphs and is generally lower than what we usually look for, but against RHP specifically that the ISO level increases to .255, which. in the “excellent” category. Nine of the 10 home runs have come against righties, and all numbers across the board are significantly better against RHP. Duran has also been doing better recently. Since June 1st he has hit seven home runs with an ISO rate of .241 in that stretch and a barrel rate of 11.2%.

Finally, Duran has the luxury of going up against Joey Estes of the Athletics, who is not a great pitcher. The biggest issue with Estes is allowing fly balls, as he has a 51.5% fly ball rate, which would be worst in the MLB if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. Estes has also been worse against lefties, allowing four of his seven home runs to LHH despite the fact that he has seen fewer left-handed hitters.

Play 3: Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+440) FanDuel

Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET

Ramirez admits to having a bit of a slump in the home run department, but he’s been great this season and is still hitting the ball hard, so we feel comfortable with him right now. He’s now gone eight straight games without playing up front, but he’s still hitting the ball.

Yesterday he had two hard hits and an average exit speed of 100.2 MPH, and there was another game against the Giants with three hard hits and an average exit speed of 97 MPH. For context, the sweet spot for a home run is anything 95 MPH and above with a launch angle between 25-35 degrees, which is Ramirez’s average in recent games. So, there are signs that a home run should come soon.

Overall, Ramirez had a great year with the tenth-best ISO rate in MLB at .257, with a total of 23 home runs that tied him for fourth-best at home. For Ramirez, his ability to put the ball in the air is the reason he has hit so many home runs, with a fly-ball rate of 48.5% (11th best in MLB) and an average launch angle of 18.4 degrees (19th best good in MLB). He had a good matchup against Tigers starter Kenta Maeda, who hasn’t had a great year. He allowed a barrel rate of 9.7% (eighth worst in MLB), a launch angle of 16.3 degrees (20th worst) and an overall HR/9 of 1.86 would be tied for the worst in MLB.

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