Voters in the 27 member states of the European Union sent a stern warning to the exercise of political power, causing havoc in France and, to a lesser extent, German politics and hard-line nationalist parties in several countries.
Even so, the radical right-wing wave feared by the European political establishment is far from over; the political center of the European Union is held.
These are the most important trends emerging from the election.
Conservatives dominate
The main centre-right group, the European People’s Party, performed strongly and finished first, not only maintaining its dominance in the European Parliament but adding a few seats to boot.
This is a sign that the strategy of the last two years, to consolidate more right-wing policies to prevent voters from abandoning more right-wing competitors.
For the past five years, the political group has spearheaded the Green Deal, one of the world’s most ambitious climate change policies. But more recently, under pressure from farmers who represent important constituencies, watered down some of the policies adopted at the EU level.
It also leads a significant tightening of the European Union’s migration policy, going some, but not all the way, in assuaging the concerns of voters who want to put a quick stop to irregular migration.
Right sided disturbance
Conservative thunder was somewhat stolen by a blockbuster performance by ultranationalist Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France. He doubled the support of the centrist coalition led by President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, prompting him to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap legislative elections.
The Alternative for Germany, or AfD, an ultranationalist party that has been designated as a “suspected” extremist group by the German authorities, rose to second place in the opinion polls there, despite losing by far to the champion, the conservatives. It trumped Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, leaving him weaker as he continued to struggle at the head of a shaky coalition.
The center holds, only
The centre-right’s strong performance was not replicated in the other two main European Parliament centrist groups. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, traditionally the second largest force in the house, maintained its strength and, more or less, the number of seats. But the Liberals lost big, shattering the informal centrist coalition of pro-European powers that generally support legislation in the European Parliament, despite their differences.
Together, the three will control more than 400 seats in the new Parliament, which will be inaugurated on July 16. It seems a comfortable majority, but the discipline in the vote of political groups may be too much, and tactical alliances may need to go down the line. to make sure the law is passed. The first test of the new, weaker parliamentary majority will be the confirmation of the president of the European Commission, the bloc’s top official, which will take place on July 18.
From a policy perspective, the electoral durability of the central powers will translate into some continuity, especially in maintaining EU support for Ukraine.
The crater is green but still important
The Greens were the biggest losers of the night: after doing well in 2019 and emerging as an important progressive force in Parliament, they lost a quarter of their seats in the recent elections.
This is largely predictable: Voters are leaving environmentally-focused parties for two main reasons. Environmentally conscious voters find that the Green agenda has, to a high degree, been incorporated into the other major parties. In a way, the Greens have lost a unique selling point.
But other voters feel that Europe’s green agenda has gone too far, harming farmers and voters in wider rural areas.
Even so, the Greens could be a reserve pool for three centrists, despite the low number of seats.
Kingmaker no more?
Conservatives have, before the elections, floated the idea of ​​roping in Europe Conservatives and Reformists, a right-wing group more dominated by the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni. This will be a no-no for other conservative allies, especially those on the left and center-left who see the group and Ms. Meloni as radicals in mainstream clothing.
With the centrist majority holding, it is necessary to turn Ms. Meloni and the members of the European Parliament he controls, seems to have mostly evaporated for now. While conservatives may still need to partner with this group in Parliament on a tactical basis, it seems unlikely that they should rely on it.
That said, Meloni remains an important EU member state leader, with an extraordinary presence that influences the political landscape and has drawn many policies. He did well at home, unlike the leaders of other major EU countries, asserting his dominance.
