Donald Trump’s new criminal conviction may come back in November, according to a new poll by Politico Magazine and Ipsos.
The former president and presumed GOP presidential candidate pleaded guilty to 34 counts of falsifying business records on May 30 for paying adult film star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election. The case is one of four criminal charges brought against Trump as he seeks a second term. twice in the White House.
Early polls show that Trump will face a heated contest with President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, on Election Day. Polling aggregator Five Thirty Eight projected on Sunday that Trump won 51 times out of 100 simulated elections, compared to Biden’s 49.
Success in November in such a tight race will go to independent voters, and recent polls show that Biden is more popular with this demographic. In a YouGov America/Yahoo News poll conducted from June 3 to June 6, 41 percent of independents said they would support the president in the upcoming election, compared to 38 percent of independents who said they would vote for Trump.
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Biden may be given better news after Ipsos/Politico released a survey Monday that asked more than 1,000 American voters from June 7 to June 9 — about a week after Trump’s impeachment — about how their opinions were affected by Trump’s beliefs. Among respondents who describe themselves as independent, 32 percent said Trump’s convictions made them “less likely” to support him in November.
Among Republican voters, about a third said they were less supportive of the former president now that he was a criminal. A majority of Democratic respondents (58 percent) said they were also likely to vote for Trump.
Overall, 21 percent of independents say they are less likely to support Trump and believe it is “important” to shape how they will vote in November. By comparison, only 7 percent of Republicans indicated that they are now less supportive of the former president and that trust is an “important” consideration in how they vote. Forty percent of Democratic voters said they were less likely to vote for Trump and believed he was “important” to vote for.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign via email to comment on the poll results.
A significant number of respondents to the Ipsos/Politico poll also indicated that they have questions about how the Trump money case is being handled in court. The former president and his allies maintained that the ruling was the result of a politically charged “witch rush” and that the presiding judge, New York State Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan, was partial to Biden. Trump was found guilty by a 12-person jury in Manhattan.
When asked if they believed Trump’s verdict was “the result of a fair and impartial judicial process,” 27 percent of independent voters said no and another 24 percent said, “I don’t know.”
Senior writer for Politico Magazine Ankush Khardori points out in a column based on a recent Ipsos/Politico survey, “Taken as a whole, the poll results suggest that Americans’ opinions on Trump’s verdict may be malleable — and could turn out to be better or worse for Trump.” “
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for a common field.
