President Joe Biden is “definitely” the Democratic candidate Donald Trump is “most likely to face” in November according to a prominent political scientist, as the incumbent faces pressure to leave his own party after concerns about his 81-year-old age and cognitive abilities. This poses a dilemma for Trump because attacking Biden so strongly on the issue could displace him as the Democratic nominee.
The comment was made by Mark Shanahan, an American political expert who teaches at the University of Surrey in England, in response to a recent poll that suggested Vice President Kamala Harris or the 2016 Democratic candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton would do better against Trump in November than Biden.
Concerns about Biden’s age rose after his first presidential debate with Trump on June 27, when the Democratic leader appeared at some points to lose his mind. In response, some prominent Democrats, including members of Congress, called on Biden to step aside but the president continued to insist that he would seek a second term in November.
Talk to Newsweek Shanahan said: “Until the first presidential debate, Biden was the most likely candidate to beat Trump in November. Now, of course, Biden is Trump’s favorite candidate.
Joe Raedle/Kevin Dietsch/Getty
“In addition to exploiting the obvious aging of the president, the somewhat younger Trump will be ruthless in exploiting the anxiety among voters, Democratic politicians and the media about Biden’s perceived decline. Trump has never treated his opponents with grace and understanding. The opportunity – and Biden never looks weaker.”
Shanahan spoke after Politico published details of a new survey conducted by Bendixen & Amandi that showed Trump ahead of Biden with 43 percent of the vote against 42 percent among November voters in a head-to-head matchup.
By contrast, polls put Harris ahead of Trump by 42 percent to 41 percent, and former Secretary of State Clinton ahead of Republicans by 43 percent to 41 percent. However, California Gov. Gavin Newsom trailed Trump 37 percent to 40 percent, while Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer trailed behind with 36 percent to 40 percent.
The survey also found that of voters who watched the June 27 debate, only 29 percent said Biden had the mental and physical stamina to serve a second term, against 61 percent who thought he did not. Overall only 33 percent of those polled said Biden should remain the Democratic nominee for November, against 52 percent who thought he should step aside. The poll of 1,000 likely November voters took place between July 2 and 6 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
Newsweek contacted the 2024 presidential campaigns of Joe Biden and Donald Trump for comment on Wednesday via email outside of regular office hours.
Speaking to Politico, Bendixen & Amandi’s director of special projects, Anthony Williams, said: “There is a certain sophistication to the way voters react.
“They are struggling with the same question that the party is struggling with: Do we need experience, or what is new?”
On June 30, Lara Trump, chairman of the Republican National Committee and Donald Trump’s son-in-law, said it would be “against our democratic process” for Democrats to replace Biden with a candidate other than Harris.
Speaking to Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo, Lara Trump said: “Joe Biden said he’s not going anywhere. , which was surprising to hear But Kamala Harris polls are just as bad, if not worse in most cases, than Joe Biden.
“So, they have a big problem on their hands. If they remove Joe Biden from the ticket and don’t have Kamala Harris as their nominee, and they try to put someone else in, Maria, it’s going against our democratic process in this country.”
Trump largely avoided commenting on Biden’s health or age after the June 27 debate, though he told Fox News host Sean Hannity that he thought Harris was the most likely opponent in November.
Asked “do you want Joe Biden to step down?” Trump replied: “Well, we’re preparing for him, but I don’t think it’s going to be a problem. We’re going to World War III in my opinion with this guy walking. ‘Cause he’s not walking, the people around the Oval Office, the people -the man around the Resolute desk, the beautiful Resolute desk, he’s really doing things in Washington that I suspect, and it’s really bad.
Hannity then asked: “What do you make of all the talk that if Biden is removed or ousted, will Harris be Vice President?”
Trump replied: “Well, I think he’s going to be him. I think he’s very concerned about the election if it’s not him. Do it the other way.
On Monday, CNN anchor Jake Tapper said Biden and his team were in “complete denial” about his health and the condition of his 2024 re-election bid.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for a common field.
