As pressure mounts on President Biden to drop out of the re-election race after a terrible debate performance, the spotlight will be even more intense on two Californians: Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Gavin Newsom.
And even if California doesn’t matter in the November election — whoever becomes the Democratic nominee will easily carry the state — the large delegation to the party’s national convention in August could play a key role in choosing Biden’s successor.
Harris will top the initial list of possible replacements with Newsom close behind.
But Harris, 59, is less popular than Biden, according to polls. And he is considered by many to drag the ticket. The only fear among many voters is that if Biden, 81, does not last a second term, he will be replaced as president by Harris.
The former California attorney general seemed clear, however, in a post-debate interview on CNN. And although I have long been a critic, I feel as I watch him that he will not be a campaign disaster.
In fact, Harris might perform well on the stumps. Drop the robot script and be more spontaneous. He will certainly be a more competitive debate against Republican Donald Trump than a weak Biden.
Harris showed genuine confidence — a look he usually doesn’t have — in implementing Biden’s policies. He tried to present his best face in the debate performance.
“Yes, there was a slow start. That was clear to everyone,” he said. “But it’s a strong finish.”
Well, no, but he adds – after he destroys himself, it may be beyond repair.
However, one obstacle for Harris is that party leaders consider him a bombshell for the presidency in 2020.
Then there’s Newsom, 56.
If Newsom wants to run for president — and he’s acting like it — now might be his best chance, assuming Biden can be persuaded. There is constant speculation about him running in 2028. But he is now in the spotlight and could be a Democratic candidate for re-election in four years.
Newsom has been heated. The two-term governor has promoted himself nationally while attacking red state policies and playing the role of an enthusiastic Biden replacement. He has a veterans campaign organization.
But Newsom must compete for the nomination against Harris, an old San Francisco ally. And he has said publicly that he won’t do it. If she did, she would be viewed as a party pariah, especially among black women, Newsom said privately.
Honestly, I never thought that a California Democrat could be elected president in these difficult times of polarization. Our politics are too left for most Americans.
Newsom has a Hollywood look and oratorical skills. But his greatest political asset — being governor of California — is also his greatest vulnerability.
However, one strength that Harris and Newsom have is that California’s delegation will be the largest at the Democratic convention. It is assumed that the California candidate will return.
The 496-member slate will provide the 22% of votes needed to win the nomination. So if Biden leaves the race, California could play a big role in electing his successor.
Who else is likely? For starters, two governors are in the main battleground: Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. Also present were Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
No candidate is perfect. But Trump is by no means perfect.
Biden loyalists and jaded naysayers have argued for months that it’s too late to change horses once the presidential race gets underway, especially now that it’s nearing the final laps. Nonsense.
Conventions were invented to fight nominations. But smoke-filled rooms unfortunately got a bad name and the Democratic Party underwent reforms. And the convention turned into a boring television show that fewer people watched.
The Republican Party had its last convention battle in 1976 when it chose President Ford over Ronald Reagan of California. Ford was later beaten by Democrat Jimmy Carter. The last good Democratic fight was in 1972 when the California delegates pushed George McGovern for the nomination. He was beaten by President Nixon, a California native.
So convention wars sometimes backfire at parties. But this year could be different.
The Democratic donnybrook could spark new interest in the party and rouse a slumbering base that has been telling pollsters it wants a younger president than the 81-year-old incumbent.
Political leaders have a bad habit of turning a blind eye when the public is talking about things they don’t want to hear.
Voters are not satisfied with one of their choices. Trump, 78, appears to be healthier than Biden, at least physically. But Trump is a pathological liar. “Alley cat morality,” Biden said during the debate.
Voters’ anxiety about Biden’s ability to adequately serve a second term played out again in a halting, hoarse, and clumsy performance. He seemed to lose his train of thought at least once and had difficulty completing sentences.
It was the worst presidential debate performance ever.
President Reagan blew his first debate against Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984, raising concerns about his age at age 73. But he wasn’t too sick to watch Biden. Reagan recovered fully in the second debate.
Even though Biden’s decisions are good, people think he is weak. And that means it will be difficult for him to lead the country.
If Trump’s election is really going to endanger democracy, as Biden says, then the president should be removed so that the party can defeat the unfit. He would have refused. But those who believe must level with him and push.
“You don’t turn back (on people) after one performance,” Newsom told a TV interviewer. “What party are you having?”
The winning party that prioritizes principles and the nation.