Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh attends an exclusive interview with Anadolu in Istanbul, Turkiye on April 20, 2024.
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The Middle East is on edge after a dramatic escalation that saw top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in an attack in the Iranian capital of Tehran early Wednesday.
Iranian officials blamed Israel for what they called the killing, but the Israeli government has not commented on the death.
“Israel is very clear – Haniyeh is a dead man walking,” Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, wrote in a post on X following the news. “Once out of Doha, it’s game time. Coming hours after the killing of Fuad Shukr in Beirut, the Middle East is now on an absolute knife’s edge.”
Just a day earlier, Israeli forces announced that they had killed Hezbollah’s second-in-command, Fuad Shukr, in an attack in a densely populated area of ​​Beirut, in retaliation for last week’s attack on the Israeli-held Golan Heights that killed several people. children. Israel blamed the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah for the attack, a charge Hezbollah has so far denied.
Haniyeh serves as Hamas’s politburo chief and is seen as a more moderate figure in the organization – notably, he led ceasefire negotiations with Israel and is the face of the group’s regional diplomatic efforts.
According to Israel’s killing Haniyeh marks a blow to Hamas and essentially torpedoes any possibility of a near-term ceasefire between Palestinian militant groups and Israel in the brutal war in Gaza that is now in ten months.
Israel and Iran have demonstrated the ability to pose a serious threat to each other, but the risk of another cycle of attacks now increases.
Torbjorn Soltvedt
lead MENA analyst at Verisk Maplecroft
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani wrote in X: “Political killings & continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while the negotiations continue lead us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one side kills negotiators on the other side? Peace needs serious partners and attitudes against the global disregard for human life.”
The Qatari government has long been the political leader of Hamas. Haniyeh was appointed head of Hamas’s political wing in 2017 before moving to Qatar in exile in 2019. After leaving Gaza, he was replaced by Yahya Sinwar, a more hard-line Hamas stalwart. Sinwar is believed to be the mastermind behind the October 7 attack on Israel that killed around 1,200 people and took 253 hostages, 116 of whom have since been released.
Israel’s military response to the attack has killed more than 39,000 people in Gaza, health authorities in the blockaded enclave, and destroyed more than half of its buildings, according to the UN.
While ceasefire talks have been going on for months without success, the more extreme Sinwar – who is based in Gaza and is said to have the final say on major Hamas decisions – has often stalled or cut off communications during negotiations.
Haniyeh served as a “key interlocutor in negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza,” Victor Tricaud, senior analyst at consulting firm Control Risks, told CNBC.
“The killing will end the discussion and mean that the position of Hamas’s less compromising leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, will face a less moderate counterweight from the group,” Tricaud said. “A ceasefire agreement will remain elusive for months.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken continued to insist that the ceasefire deal was an “eternal commitment” when speaking at a forum in Singapore, and denied that the US was aware of the Israeli attack on Haniyeh.
The US State Department in 2018 designated Haniyeh as a terrorist, describing him as a “supporter of armed struggle, including against civilians,” and stating that Hamas operatives have been responsible for “approximately 17 American lives lost in terrorist attacks.”
Will Iran retaliate?
Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah have all vowed revenge; but what actions are taken against Israel could lead to further escalation or lead the region to a bigger war.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told Israel Defense Forces troops on Wednesday that Israel “does not want war, but is preparing for all possibilities.” Iran’s interim leadership has said that the alleged Israeli attack is grounds for “severe punishment” and that the country must “pay a heavy price.”
An all-out war between Israel and Iran – and Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah – would be devastating for all parties involved. But not responding at all may not be an option for Iran’s leadership, which will be under pressure to show strength.
Banners depicting missiles and drones flying past torn Israeli flags, with the words in Persian “the next blow will be harder” and in Hebrew “the next mistake will be the end of your fake state”, were hung in front of the building. in Palestine Square in Tehran on April 14, 2024.
Atta Kenare | AFP Getty Images
Haniyeh’s death in Tehran “puts Iran’s leadership under intense pressure from the Revolutionary Guard to retaliate after another attack on Iranian soil,” Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal MENA analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC.
“Israel and Iran have demonstrated their ability to pose a serious threat to each other, but the risk of another cycle of attacks is now increasing.”
However, many regional analysts expect Iran to be conservative with its reaction, because so far the Islamic Republic has shown little interest in fighting with Israel to help Hamas. A tit-for-tat exchange of missile strikes between Iran and Israel in April saw strikes essentially measured and telegraphed to avoid damage or casualties.
Tricaud at Control Risks expects any retaliation “to be highly calibrated — possibly using Iranian-backed proxy groups,” he said. “It remains unclear whether Tehran’s intention to avoid a full-scale regional conflict with Israel has changed as a result of Haniyeh’s killing.”
While the attack was a major violation of the Islamic Republic’s sovereignty, he added, “Tehran has repeatedly shown that it does not want to be dragged into a direct conflict with Israel over the war in Gaza.”