Texas A&M hosts LSU on Saturday night in a matchup between top-15 teams with identical 6-1 records and unblemished SEC marks.
While the Aggies are touted defensively, they have never faced a team with the Tigers’ offensive power.
Brian Kelly has always been flexible at various points in adjusting the team to his strengths, and now that he’s at LSU, attracting top-level talent every year is no longer an issue.
Despite losing Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and two first-round receivers, Kelly and the Tigers’ offense can only reload thanks to the quality depth that will be on display Friday night in College Station.
LSU vs. Texas A & M odds
| team | Transmission | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | +1 (-110) | -105 | o54.5 (-112) |
| Texas A&M | -1 (-110) | -115 | u54.5 (-108) |
LSU view
Garrett Nussmeier has completed 55% (69-of-125) of his passes in three SEC games, but Kelly defended the quarterback this week, saying that the offense incentivizes Nussmeier to make more reads further down the field.
“You don’t take some of the cupcake throws that keep the chain moving in some other offense,” Kelly said. “But we feel like Garrett’s a better fit for what he does. And that’s pretty good for our offense.
Nussmeier’s aggressiveness has certainly paid off, as he ranks seventh nationally in yards per game (317.4) and leads the SEC with 18 passing touchdowns.
According to Game on Paper, dropbacks recorded 0.27 Expected Points Added (EPA) – a 10th best mark in the country.
The reality is that Kelly’s reliance on the passing game is almost necessary because of the Tigers’ struggles to move the ball on the ground. LSU’s success rate is just 38.3%, ranking 99th in the FBS.
Texas A&M insight
It’s no secret how the Aggies will try to attack LSU. Unlike the Tigers, Texas A&M is a more dominant team, ranking 34th in yards per carry (5.77) and 39th in EPA/rush (+0.09).
It’s no surprise that the Aggies have a turnover rate of 62.06% – the 11th highest mark in the nation.
The problem for LSU is very weak against the run, with opponents averaging 5.29 yards per carry (93rd).
Against South Carolina, the Tigers allowed 243 rushing yards at 5.9 yards per carry in a 36-33 victory. South Carolina and Texas A&M have a similar profile, with both running rates in the top 20.
You can bet Aggies coach Mike Elko will be watching the game tape extensively to determine the Tigers’ vulnerability in this key SEC showdown.
LSU vs. Texas A&M Pick
As much as the Aggies want to keep the ball on the ground, this high-powered LSU offense can force them to abandon the run earlier than they would like.
While Texas A&M has had success in the passing game, it is extremely young at quarterback with sophomore Conner Weigman and freshman Marcel Reed.
Weigman regained the starting job after returning from a shoulder injury despite Reed going 3-0 while throwing six touchdowns and zero interceptions.
In contrast, Weigman has thrown three touchdowns along with four picks. However, his TD-INT ratio is a bit misleading because it misunderstands Texas A&M’s scoring ability with the running game. The Aggies have scored 16 touchdowns on the ground.
There should be opportunities for the Aggies to move the ball through the air against LSU’s defense, which ranks 98th with a +0.05 EPA/dropback.
Betting on College Football?
The Tigers also struggled to get the ball, as they had just four interceptions this season.
Considering this is a match where both teams can play to their strengths, we should see a lot of points on the scoreboard when it’s over.
Best bet: Over 54.5 points (-110, BetMGM)
Is Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze is the main sports handicapper for the New York Post. He cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay spanning eight Little League World Series games. Most recently, he accurately selected the finalists in the 2024 European Championship and the Copa America.
