Voters cast their ballots during early voting in the US presidential election at a polling station in Detroit, Michigan, USA November 3, 2024.
Rebecca Cook | Reuters
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international market newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. As you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Only 12,000 jobs were added in the US in October.
The US economy added 12,000 jobs in October, missing the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000 by a wide margin and marking the weakest rate of job creation since December 2020. However, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that the number was affected by the hurricane. country and the Boeing strike in October.
Asian markets rose ahead of China’s parliamentary meeting
US stocks rallied to start November, as traders shrugged off disappointing job reports. At Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.69%, in S&P 500 advanced 0.41% and on Nasdaq Composite an increase of 0.8%. Asia-Pacific markets rose on Monday as investors watched the US election, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, and China’s monetary policy meeting starting Monday.
China’s stimulus will depend on the US election
Investors expect Beijing to announce details of the fiscal support on Friday, when the National People’s Congress standing committee will wrap up its five-day meeting. “The size of China’s fiscal stimulus package will be about 10~20% larger in a Trump victory than in a Harris win scenario,” Ting Lu, head of China economics at Nomura, said last week.
Harris gained ground in Iowa
Iowa is not the state most polls predicted for Kamala Harris. However, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll revealed that the vice president leads Donald Trump in Iowa by 47% to 44% among likely voters, a seven-point shift in September. Iowa holds six electoral votes.
(PRO) makeup Congress can decide stock performance
And all eyes are on who will occupy the Oval Office after election night on November 5 (November 6 Asia time). A divided or united Congress could even hold the key to how the stock will move forward.
The split in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate suggests the status quo could continue, rather than a more onerous tax and spending overhaul that could come from a Democratic or Republican sweep.
Bottom line
It’s an overused saying, but “the calm before the storm” is probably the best way to describe the start of the week and days ahead of the US election.
After a weekend of arguments from both parties in a critical swing state, the US now stands on the brink of Election Day, with two very different candidates and two very different positions on issues.
Will we find out the results on election night, or will it be later? What will be the margin of victory, and most importantly, will the uncertainty we saw in 2020 repeat itself?
Beyond the two presidential candidates, it is important to remember that the US president does not operate in a vacuum. Control of the House and Senate will also determine the president’s ability to carry out his campaign promises.
For investors, it’s like the last moment before the plane crashes.
Many will wait and see the fashion before returning to the market. With two candidates locked in a dead heat, trying to predict the winner, and where the market will go is really like taking a shot in the dark.
Furthermore, when November 5 looks like a big red circle on the calendar everyone is focused on, the world still continues after that date. The Fed’s next two-day meeting starts on November 6-7, with a Reuters poll of economists expecting a 25 basis point cut.
