Climate change has made monsoons in India unstable. Can farmers still find a way to prosper?

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BENGALURU, India (AP) – Every year from June to September, torrential rains sweep from India’s southwestern coast to its northeastern border, wiping out the fields of thirsty farmers.

India’s monsoon season is perhaps the most important weather phenomenon for the country, and a good monsoon boosts the country’s economy and the livelihoods of 120 million farmers. But human-caused climate change has made rainfall erratic, making it difficult for farmers to plant, grow and harvest their fields.

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“It rains a lot in a short period of time or it doesn’t rain at all,” said Vijay Jawandhia, a 77-year-old farmer in the western state of Maharashtra. Jawandhia grows cotton, soybeans and various other crops that require a mild climate and constant irrigation for the first few weeks after sowing. “We planted cotton seeds after the prediction of a good rainy season, but the rains lasted only two days and stopped, so now we are worried that the crop will fail again.”

The Indian Meteorological Department had predicted good rainfall from the monsoon clouds earlier this year, but extreme heat in northern India hampered the progress of the rains. The agency revised its forecast in June, saying this year’s rainfall will be less than previously expected.

Many are looking for ways to adapt to this new, unpredictable reality. Experts recommend growing plants that need less water, better and more localized forecasting methods and protection against unexpected weather. But changing the centuries-old way of caring for the land will not be an easy task.

How does climate change affect monsoons?

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India usually has two monsoons: one from June to September moving southwest to northeast, and another from October to December going in the opposite direction.

But with more planet-warming gases in the air, rain now just follows this pattern. This is because the warmer air holds more moisture from the Indian Ocean, and the rain is then dumped together. This means that monsoons are punctuated by intense floods and dry spells, rather than continuous rain.

“When it rains today, it rains heavily,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, a retired senior official at India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences. Rajeevan has been tracking monsoons for decades, and noticed “the number of rainy days is decreasing even though the total amount of seasonal rainfall has remained the same for the past few centuries.”

Landslides and floods are on the rise, he said, along with high temperatures and longer dry spells adding to farmers’ woes.

Floods can also cause death and economic losses, such as hundreds of deaths and damages of more than $1.42 billion in Himachal Pradesh by 2023 due to heavy monsoon rains.

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Rajeevan added that hydropower generating large amounts of electricity was also built keeping in mind the incessant rains, and that extreme rains and floods can cause health problems such as increased cases of typhoid, cholera and malaria.

What does this mean for farmers?

The incessant rain is a significant blow to his life.

Maharashtra has witnessed thousands of farmer deaths due to suicide many say due to agriculture related debts. “Our area is already famous for this,” said Jawandhia, the farmer.

Farmers in traditionally resource-rich regions, such as Punjab and Haryana in northern India, also say they are being affected by the lack of rain and heavy rainfall during monsoons.

Tezveer Singh, a farmer in Haryana’s Ambala town recalled how “whole towns and fields were flooded, hundreds of animals died from drowning and three people died” in last year’s floods.

Singh grows rice, potatoes and sugarcane on his 20-acre farm and says urgent policy changes are needed to stop the flood damage.

He suggested that officials can “compensate for our losses if needed, provide climate-resistant seeds, make the supply chain for agricultural production more efficient and increase the minimum price for crops.”

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“The climate has become difficult and we have to adapt,” he said.

How can we adapt?

India’s weather agency makes state-level monsoon rainfall forecasts for the entire country, but climate experts say forecasts need to be more localized to be useful to farmers.

Vishwas Chitale, who heads the climate resilience team at the New Delhi-based Energy, Environment and Water Council, said making local weather predictions and changing the timing of farmers’ planting could help.

In many places in India, “maximum rainfall is happening in October now and not in June and July as it used to be,” said Chitale, who also wrote the 2024 report that looks at India’s changing monsoon patterns. “This caused a lot of crops waiting to be harvested to be damaged.”

He added that better forecasting is available to everyone across the country who needs it.

Some farmers have adapted to a warmer world. In the southern state of Kerala, organic farming collectives have begun to change as they sow and harvest crops according to changing rainfall patterns. The farming collective has also created an agricultural calendar that is exposed to climate change similar to other local farmers.

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“The alert is helping the farmers,” said Rajesh Krishnan, a paddy farmer who is part of a collective that works with local weather officials on the forecast. Krishnan says that daily and weekly forecasts have at least 70% accuracy. “It helps reduce losses and also get a better harvest. The forecast also helps us decide when to harvest,” he said.

Climate experts like Rajeevan say that the collective model should be replicated across the country so that farmers can work during the rainy season.

After all, he said, “monsoon is a part of our culture. We cannot think of India without monsoon.

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