Dogs are groomed during an animal show in Shanghai on August 17, 2023.
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China’s pet population will nearly double that of children by 2030 as young Chinese remain reluctant to start new families, Goldman Sachs said in a new note.
The country’s urban pet population will reach more than 70 million by the end of the decade, while the number of children four and under will decrease to less than 40 million, according to Goldman Sachs research citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
In 2017, the situation was just the opposite – there were 90 million four-year-olds, compared to an urban pet population of about 40 million.
“We expect to see stronger momentum in pet ownership amid the prospect of a weaker birth rate and higher household pet penetration from the younger generation,” investment bank equity analyst Valerie Zhou wrote.
New births in the country will decline by an average of 4.2% until 2030, largely driven by a decline in the population of women aged 20 to 35, and because the younger generation is less likely to have children, the report states. .
People take their animals to take photos for the new year on December 13, 2020 in Jilin, China.
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Those between the ages of 23 and 33 will account for nearly half of China’s pet owners by 2023, according to China’s Pet Industry White Paper.
As young Chinese adults choose fur babies over real babies, the bank expects the country’s pet food market to grow into a $12 billion industry by 2030. The report also predicts China’s cat ownership surpasses dogs because they typically require less space. to raise.
Across the globe, birth rates are falling as women choose to have fewer children, with the world’s population set to rise this century with some of the world’s largest countries facing declining birth rates.
China’s population fell for the second year in a row to 1.41 billion people in 2023, down 2.08 million from the previous year, according to government statistics. While new marriages in China will increase by 12.4% in 2023 from the previous year, more than half of the population between the ages of 25 and 29 remain single, with late marriages becoming more common in recent years.
In Japan, the pet population of around 20 million is almost four times the size of four-year-olds by 2022, the report also showed, citing data from the Japan Pet Food Association and Euromonitor.