The Grand Old Party has secured a significant vote share in the rural and semi-rural areas of the country in the Lok Sabha polls 2024. | Photo Credit:-
In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP lost a significant share of its rural voter base, with many moving to the Congress.
In Data Point on Monday (September 16), we have highlighted the wind behind the Congress’ electoral prospects in the Haryana Assembly elections. The Grand Old Party has benefited from an increase in votes in rural and semi-rural areas of the country in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. With regional parties losing their support base in the Lok Sabha polls and the contest becoming bipolar in general, the fall in BJP’s vote share in rural areas benefits Congress.
The BJP has also lost some votes in urban areas compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, which again benefited the Congress, but won more than 50% of the urban votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Map 1 provides a geospatial representation of Haryana, divided into rural, semi-rural, semi-urban, and urban.
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Assembly seats close to Delhi, such as Gurugram, Badshahpur, Badkhal, Faridabad, and Ballabgarh, are urban in nature, while those on the eastern border, along Uttar Pradesh, are classified as semi-urban or semi-rural. The seats on the western border along Punjab and Rajasthan are rural. In general, the State becomes increasingly rural as we move away from Delhi and the eastern border.
In particular, in areas close to the relatively more urbanized eastern border of the city and urbanized areas around Delhi, the voter population has increased, largely due to migration.
Map 2 shows the change in the percentage of voters in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
The number of voters in Tigaon, Sohna, Gurugram, Faridabad NIT, Badshahpur, and Badkhal Assembly segments, in Faridabad and Gurugram districts, has increased by more than 50% during the period.
Table 3 shows that BJP got more than 40% vote share in semi-urban areas and almost 50% votes in urban seats in recent Assembly elections (2014 and 2019).
The BJP’s vote share in the region has increased if the recent Lok Sabha elections are taken into account. The Congress, on the other hand, has done well, securing around 15%-25% in recent polls (Lok Sabha and Assembly elections). However, the party could increase its vote share to 35% in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls by reducing BJP’s support base in urban areas.
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In rural areas, the preference for regional parties such as the Indian National Lok Dal was more pronounced in the 2014 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, with more than half of the electorate choosing neither the BJP nor the Congress. The BJP could reverse this trend in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by securing more than 50% of the rural and semi-rural votes, while the Congress also got a small margin. But in the next Assembly elections in 2019, the spread of the Jannayak Janta Party helped it gain a considerable share of votes, although the total share of regional parties was lower compared to the 2014 Assembly elections.
With the Congress gaining a majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and the share of regional parties dwindling, the BJP has tried to stem its losses and regain support by lifting the export ban on basmati rice. This move will benefit the farmers in the State. Haryana and Punjab are the top two states in terms of production.
Map 4 shows the production of basmati rice in thousands of tons for 2023.
If this move has an impact, it will be most evident in the Assembly seats in Jind and Sirsa districts followed by Karnal and Sonipat.
See also:Tribal voting trends reshape Lok Sabha election results 2024 | data
Sources: Data for maps and tables are sourced from Election Commission of India, Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, and Development Data Lab. Urban-rural classification was done by collecting night light intensity data in assembly constituencies, provided by the SHRUG database
nitika.evangeline@thehindu.co.in
vignesh.r@thehindu.co.in
Published – 20 September 2024 08:00 IST
