Donald Trump famously said in 2016 that he “could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot people and not lose voters.” What seemed like an incredible exaggeration at the time turned out to be true: Despite disasters, defeats, impeachments, indictments and other events that would have undermined the ambitions of other politicians, Trump’s base remained strong.
But that may have more to do with Trump’s unique ability to inspire cult-like loyalty than with a decades-long transformation of voting behavior.
This resilient political base is not just a Republican phenomenon. Yes, President Biden’s poor debate performance led to an unprecedented outcry from Democratic Party leaders, media personalities and donors who called on him to withdraw as the nominee, ultimately leading to his withdrawal from the race on Sunday. But Democratic voters have largely responded to the debacle in a manner similar to that of their Republican counterparts who have disobeyed Trump, calling on party elites to change.
Partisan loyalty and commitment to politicians they see as having fought and won for their worldview has pushed partisan voters to ignore deep flaws in their candidates. When most Democratic voters have told the pollsters that Biden is too old to be president and should drop out of the race, the polls say show a very close contest between him and Trump.
In fact, the website The widely watched 538 election forecast Biden remains competitive despite being on the brink of deciding to bow out, citing his chances of getting the 270 electoral votes he needs to come close to winning the coin toss — just like before the debate. The site poll average also shows no more than two-three drop points in support for the old president even after he is subjected to a daily barrage of news in an effort to push him out of the race. And this is when Trump dramatically survived an assassination attempt, won a pair of favorable court verdicts in the criminal case against him and starred at a national convention where he was nominated for the third time.
This calcification does not bode well for democracy’s ability to overcome differences between politicians and voters or to find common ground. And it almost guarantees a close election in November no matter who the Democrats nominate to replace Biden. In fact, polls show nearly every major Democratic candidate tested against Trump is actually within two or three points of where Biden stood before he pulled away.
Trump has endured a felony conviction, a series of successful lawsuits and a phalanx of former subordinates talking about the dangers of returning to the White House especially because of the pernicious force known as negative partisanship. America is recognize themselves by what they oppose rather than what they support, making negative partisanship the dominant driver of voting behavior among those registered with one of the main parties.
Voters’ overwhelming adherence to Trump and Biden says more about the state of society than it does about the appeal of a historically unpopular pair of candidates. America is entrenched in a partisan foxhole of our own making, and the short-term prognosis for finding a path to any middle ground looks bleak.
It may seem like we’re on an out-of-control political roller coaster since the Biden debate, which was just the first of several seismic news events. But polling averages haven’t dipped more than three points in either direction as a result. Moreover, there is no reason to think that the president withdrawing from the campaign, regardless of who replaces him as the nominee, will change the fact that this will be a close election.
Mike Madrid is a political consultant and author”Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority Is Changing Democracy.