Older Americans are more likely to support continued U.S. support for Israel, putting them out of step with the younger generation, polling exclusively for Israel. Newsweek have found
One year from October 7th Hamas attack in southern Israel in which 1,200 people were killed and at least 250 taken hostagethere is no end in sight to the war in Gaza-which has tested the President Joe Biden‘s global influence and can be a ballot box issue for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Israeli bombings in Gaza, which killed at least 42,000 people according to local health authoritieshas strained US relations with Jerusalem and fueled criticism of the Biden administration amid the prospect of a wider regional war.
This article is part of Newsweek‘s poll tracker, where Americans have asked questions on topics such as abortion, immigration and the war in Ukraine over the past 16 months.
The poll was conducted exclusively by Redfield & Wilton strategy on his behalf Newsweek between July 2023 and October 2024. In total, 19 polls were conducted, asking 34,800 eligible voters about the main issues of the 2024 election. A question was added in February 2024 about US support for Israel’s war against Hamas.
The latest survey, on October 6 found that of all respondents, 34 percent agreed that American support should continue “until Israel wins the war.” This is roughly in line with opinion since polling on the issue began – with the lowest level of support at 25 percent, recorded on April 11.
But a closer look at the demographic breakdown shows that those between the ages of 18 and 26, known as Generation Z, are more skeptical than older voters who support Washington for its Middle East allies.
An Oct. 6 survey found that 27 percent of Generation Z voters agreed that U.S. support should continue until Israel wins compared to 44 percent of Boomers—those ages 59 and older.
Meanwhile, 16 percent of Gen Z voters said on Oct. 6 the U.S. should end support for Israel in the current war, double the 8 percent of Boomers who hold this view.
“You have an older generation that grew up with a different conception of the U.S. relationship with Israel,” he said Matt Dusexecutive vice president at the DC-based Center for International Policy, “there is a stronger sense that Israel is under threat and needs US support.”
“Younger voters have grown up with the fact that Israel is a regional military superpower,” he said Newsweek“so some arguments about Israel’s existential threat have little appeal with these voters.”
The war in Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon are stirring emotions on US campuses. On October 7, pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian students held a demonstration at Columbia University, which has become protest center through the war and have taken security measures.
Generation Z disagrees
Redfield & Wilton says polls in 2024 show the two youngest generational groups (Gen Z and Millennials) are nearly 20 points lower than Boomers who say the US should maintain its level of support until the war is over.
“Political consultants often tend to dismiss the youth vote. What we need to focus on is not just the people who go out and vote on Election Day, but do these people show up and help get them to vote?” Duss said, showing canvassing, door knocking and volunteering is needed to increase turnout.
“Young people disproportionately do a lot of voluntary work. Vice President Harris, being a candidate actually helped the problem quite a bit. But this war has continued with really no change in policy, I think that is still a concern.
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Philip van Scheltinga, research director of Redfield & Wilton, noted how this year’s British General Election, polls failed to capture the performance of the Labor Party in areas of high ethnic concentration in response to what happened in Gaza.
“Since this population is a small part of the electorate, polls cannot capture this trend,” he said. Newsweek.
“This could also happen in the US, where anger about the situation in Gaza led to a poor performance of the Democrats among a small population, but with electoral potential that was missed by the polls.”
About 14 percent of all respondents in October believed that US support for Israel in the war should end now, equal to the previous lowest figure – 14 percent recorded in August 2024. But the poll showed a split between those who would vote for Harris and who is going to vote for Trump in November.
The latest poll found that 27 percent of Harris supporters agreed with continued US support for Israel until he wins, a level that has remained unchanged since he entered the presidential race.
However, more Trump supporters—45 percent, held that view in October, down slightly from 48 percent in the August poll. The average over eight polls has just over 40 percent of Trump voters backing US support.
Nearly half (44 percent) of Harris supporters said in October that backing Israel should be “reconsidered.” The poll was conducted just days after Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, and saw the response rise from 35 percent the previous month.
In an October survey, 12 percent of Harris voters said their support should end now—compared to 14 percent of Trump supporters.
Andrew Lathamprofessor of international relations at Macalester College in Saint Paul, Minnesota, said that the war may not be a decisive issue for the presidential election campaign before November 5 “but it has made a difference.”
“At Democrats back,” he said. This is because he believes the party is trying to keep Israel able to defend itself while arguing this is limited by the humanitarian need for a ceasefire and the geopolitical urgency for de-escalation.
Democrats also need to accommodate a more pro-Palestinian wing of the Democratic base, something the GOP should not worry about, he added.
“At Republicanson the other hand, it is free to make a less qualified case that Israel has the right to defend itself-regardless of the escalatory risk,” said Latham.
“Republicans can also make the case that what Israel is doing is helping to undermine Iran’s efforts to assert its hegemony in the Persian Gulf region,” he said.
Reconsidering US support for Israel
About one-third (34 percent) of all respondents in October believed that the US should “reconsider support,” a figure that reached a high of 36 percent in three polls earlier this year – on February 10, March 15 and April 11.
“Both parties have been concerned about staying in the good graces of the Israel lobby rather than following the voter’s opinion,” said Matthew Hoh, associate director of the Eisenhower Network, a think tank that supports diplomacy in US foreign policy.
“Democrats made a calculation last fall that losing progressives and the Arab-Muslim vote was safer than losing the support of the Israel lobby,” he said. Newsweek.
Meanwhile, Hoh believes that the GOP, at least voters who are receptive to a harder line with Israel, hoping the Democrats will make a misstep.
“Democrats will anger the Israeli lobby and the GOP will get has been the most important determinant of US policy for the past year.”
Read the rest of our poll tracker series:
Abortion Outpaces Immigration in Voters’ Minds
Voters Kamala Harris want a hardline stance on Immigration
US Elections Will Determine Ukraine’s Fate. Here’s What Voters Think
Bad News For Kamala Harris—The Majority’s Economic Speech Is In The Wrong Direction
Social Security Will Reach the Next Generation. The incoming recipient is worried
Kamala Harris’s Abortion Rights Strategy Works
