Two-thirds of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll — including a majority of Joe Biden’s own supporters — said he should step aside as the presidential candidate because of his debate performance two weeks ago. Even as Biden continued to run evenly with Donald Trump, there was no post-debate change in vote choice.
Americans are divided 46-47% between Biden and Trump if the election is now, almost the same as the results of the ABC / Ipsos poll of 44-46% in April. Among the registered voters (although there is a lot of time to register) is an absolute tie, 46-46%.
If Vice President Kamala Harris replaces Biden as the Democratic nominee, the vote choice is 49-46%, Harris-Trump, among all adults (and 49-47% among registered voters). Harris’ 49% is slightly better than Biden’s 46%, although he does not have a statistically significant lead over Trump.
Read the PDF for full results.
That’s not to say Biden didn’t suffer damage from the debate. Sixty-seven percent overall said they should withdraw from the race. Further, 85% now say they are too old for a second term, a new high, up from 81% in April and 68% more than a year ago.
Furthermore, the poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with field work by Ipsos, found Trump leading Biden by 30 percentage points, 44%-14%, as he appeared to have the mental acuity needed to be an effective president. Trump’s leadership almost always looks like physical health to serve, and the advantages of both have increased since April.
As the horse race shows, those views may not be determinative. Biden’s job approval rating is stable, though at 36%. Despite being unpopular, Biden still has better personal approval ratings than Trump. And Biden leads Trump by 17 points, 39%-22%, because he is seen as more honestand trustworthy, unchanged from the spring.
Both candidates face high levels of scorn. About 4 in 10 Americans say they don’t have the mental acuity or physical health to serve effectively, and many say they’re dishonestand not trusted. Sixty percent said Trump was too old for a second term, also a new high, up from 44% in the spring of 2023. And in a sign of the country’s political polarization, 50% said that because of his debate performance, Trump should step aside. from other nominees – although, unlike Biden, some of Trump’s own supporters have said so.
It is clear that Biden suffered reputational damage from the debate. Half of Americans say they have a poor opinion of him, compared to 22% who say that about Trump’s performance. Twenty-seven percent see Trump as more favorable because of the debate, just 7% for Biden on this measure.
Even among those who said they would vote for Biden in November, 81% said he was too old for another term and only 44% said he should continue the race; 54% said they should get rid of it. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, more — 62% — say they should go. (By comparison, only 16% of Republicans and GOP leaners say Trump should resign.)
If Biden resigns — and he insists he won’t — only 44% of Americans overall say they’d be satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee, with 53% dissatisfied. However, among Democrats and Democrats, satisfaction with Harris reached 70%, and 76% among Biden supporters today.
Put another way, with an open-ended question, Democrats and Democrats were asked who would want to take Biden’s place if he resigned. Twenty-nine percent named Harris, easily the leading choice in this group, with all others in the single digits. However, indicating fragmentation, more than 30 potential candidates were named.
Debate
The verdict on the debate wasn’t close: Two-thirds of Americans said Trump won, rising to 74% of viewers. (This includes those who initially called it a tie but later leaned toward one or the other as the winner.)
Among Biden supporters, 59% said he would win, indicating a significant level of loyalty among this group. Among those who voted for Trump or the other candidate, by contrast, 94% almost all agreed that Trump won the debate.
Another result may raise the stakes for Biden’s future appearances, including a press conference scheduled for Thursday: Among viewers, 61% said Biden’s opinion worsened as a result of the debate. Among those who do not watch, many say – 34%.
Stay or go
Majorities in most groups say Biden should step aside, though to varying degrees. It is lowest, 49%, among blacks, including 32% among blacks 50 and older, a group that is particularly strong for Biden.
Fifty-six percent of Democrats say Biden should step down, rising to 72% of independents and a nearly equal share of Republicans, 73%. Six in 10 liberals say so, as do about 7 in 10 moderates and conservatives. It’s also about 7 in 10 among whites and Hispanics. Even among those who have a personal opinion of Biden, 55% say he should be removed, as do 77% of those who view him unfavorably.
Vote your choice
Like the overall Biden-Trump horse race, the choice among groups is very similar to what it was in April. It’s 39-53%, Biden-Trump, among whites, for example, 49-42% among Hispanics and 77-17% among blacks.
Despite the performance of the debate, Democrats remained with Biden, 91-5%; Republicans with Trump, 94-4%; and independent, often swing Voters in national elections, split 40-44% (Biden-Trump), not a significant difference.
There was some difference in Harris’s support against Trump compared to Biden, though not enough to make the race anything but another heat. Harris did better against Trump with women, 52-44%, compared to 47-46% for Biden-Trump among women.
Furthermore, Harris has a significant lead over Trump among Hispanics, 56-40%, while Biden does not. And Harris did 8 points better than Biden with urban women, 61% to 53%. Harris’s support of 82% among black men, and 86% among black women, is not significantly different from Biden’s results in those groups.
Other tests, including Biden, Trump and third-party or independent candidates, again found no significant change from April, with 41% for Biden, 42% for Trump, 10% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2% each for Cornel West and Jill Stein.
Attributes
As noted, even after the debate, Biden had a comparative advantage in one measure of goodwill. He is 8 points below the water in terms of personal satisfaction, seen as good by 42% of the public, less than 50%. Trump, by contrast, is 25 points underwater on this score, 34%-59%.
This favorability rating is essentially unchanged since April, with no visible impact of the debate. Even so, among those who view Biden favorably, nearly 4 in 10 (37%) also say they see him less favorably than before because of the debate.
The question at hand is what attributes of the candidate are most important to the public. This includes, for example, how much juice Biden gets from the clear advantage of honesty and trustworthiness, or the smaller one-digit lead as a candidate who “represents your personal values” and “will protect American democracy.” He and Trump run evenly on another historically important attribute, recognizing “the problem of people like you.”
That said, the hit for Biden is about mental acuity and actual physical health. In April he trailed Trump on mental acuity by 19 points; today, as mentioned, it is 30 points. And Biden’s 22-point deficit on physical health in the spring is 31 points now.
Trump, too, is better than Biden on job approvals. With 36% approving versus 57% disapproving, Biden is 21 points underwater on this score. Reflecting back on Trump’s presidency, 43% approve of his job performance, 52% disapprove, a 9-point narrower gap. Biden’s job rating has been stable for more than a year, and negative for three years.
Plan B
As for his successor, 67% of blacks — a heavily Democratic group — would be satisfied with Harris, the first black man and first woman to serve as vice president, taking over from Biden. Fewer Hispanics (51%) or whites (38%) would be comfortable with at least showing a different partisan preference.
Satisfaction with Harris’ nomination was about the same among black women (70%) and black men (64%; a 6-point difference with no significant sample size). Additionally, there was no difference between men and women overall in their views of Harris as a nominee.
In an open question between Democrats and Democrats, Harris preferred to replace Biden among groups — named, for example, 27% to 34% of men, women, blacks, Hispanics and whites.
As many skip or dismiss the question as Harris chooses. Far behind him, 7% named California Governor Gavin Newsom as their preferred stand-in; 4%, former first lady Michelle Obama; 3% each, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer; 2%, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; and 1%, eight other political figures from Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear to Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Others came up with less than half a percent.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® July 5-9, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,431 adults. The partisan divide is 32%-29%-27%, Democrat-Republican-independent. Results have a margin of sampling error of 2 percentage points, including design effects, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in opinion polls.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on ABC News’ survey methodology here.