Are tenants the new electoral coalition?

Margaret Thatcher had the Essex Man and New Labor boasted the Mondeo Man. David Cameron secured Mumsnet Mums and for Boris Johnson it was Workington Man. All of them symbolize voters who switch their votes in an election, effectively determining who will lose and who will win.

So what about 2024? In working with key electoral blocs, it is possible that Renter Ruth could be key if Labor is to win, as the polls are currently suggesting. In the last decade, the number of renters has increased while the Conservative party has gained support among these groups.

By 2022-23, the private rented sector in the UK will account for 4.6 million or 19% of households, roughly double the number in the early 2000s, according to the UK Housing Survey. This is greater than that of social housing tenants.

Issues affecting tenants have never seemed more political, be it security after the Grenfell Tower tragedy, or trying to ban no-fault evictions after the Covid pandemic. The housing affordability crisis is also creating more renters than ever, especially in the private sector.

The Conservative Party manifesto decided to ban no-fault evictions. The party first proposed this policy in 2019 but the bill did not become law before the end of the last parliament.

The Labor manifesto said it would not abolish wrongful evictions and gave tenants the power to challenge what they called unreasonable rent increases. Keir Starmer has said Labor will make new laws to prevent a rental “bidding war”, if the party wins the election.

The Liberal Democrats also pledged not to ban wrongful evictions and said they would make three-year leases the default. The Greens also support the end of no-fault evictions and say they want the introduction of long-term leases.

The Reform Party did not support the Tenant Reform Bill introduced in the previous parliament. He said he would improve “monitoring, appeals and enforcement processes for tenants with complaints.”

With each party competing for tenant support and policy deals often overlapping, how can this influential bloc make a difference on July 4th?

There are many constituencies with large numbers of private tenants who could vote for this result. In London seats such as Kensington and Bayswater, Finchley and Golders Green and Chipping Barnet where more than 20% of private renters are held by the Conservative Party but may be vulnerable. There is a similar situation outside London with conservative seats such as Colchester, Eastbourne, Cheltenham and in Red Wall, Burnley, all constituencies where more than 20% of people are private renters who are now being targeted by Labor or the Liberal Democrats.

So how will the rent choose? Those living in social housing are more likely to be of working class and ethnic minority origin, and of course more likely to be left-wing. But the tendency to support Labor among private renters is relatively new.

In the 2010 General Election, private tenants were just as likely to vote Conservative as Labor – both parties got around 26% of the vote.

In 2015, this changed, with Labor holding a 15 percentage point advantage over the Conservatives. In the previous Conservative leadership coalition government there were reforms to Housing Benefit that made housing trickier to come by some reliant on benefits to help private renters.

Since then, this division has solidified, compounded by the age divide over Brexit and immigration. In recent years, voting patterns have diverged by age, with young people in particular leaning more towards Labour. Most private renters are young.

The youngest voters are more likely to say that housing is one of the main issues facing the country – it is rated as the top three issue for 18-34 year olds according to the IPSOS Issue Tracker and is not important for the older group. .

Young people seem to be more likely to vote for Labor than any other party, but it is also true that the Green Party enjoys the highest poll numbers among the same group.

For Labor there is also a very real risk that the private hire does not vote at all.

Not only are younger people more likely to vote than older people, but renters are also less likely to vote than homeowners.

This has always been the case, but coupled with the reform in 2014 to electoral registration in 2014, Electoral Commission research shows that tenants are disproportionately affected, who are more likely to move.

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