Donald Trump has a slim 3-point edge over Kamala Harris in Arizona, driven by economic and border issues. Harris has an advantage with priority voters abortion and democratic countries, keep this race close.
Voters think Trump’s policy will put the interests of US citizens ahead of new immigrants, where many feel Harris’ wisdom won’t. And Trump’s idea deport all immigrants in the US is illegal supported by more than half of Arizona voters.
It’s a slightly different picture in the race for the US Senate: Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 9 points. Gallego was helped by several Republicans and independents who split the ticket by voting for Trump for president and against Lake for Senate, which most Arizona voters said was too much.
Economy and rising prices: Advantage Trump
Inflation continues to be on the minds of Arizona voters. Most say the price of things they buy has risen in recent months, and those who feel that way support Trump more than Harris.
More voters think they will be better off financially if Trump wins than if Harris.
Borders and immigration: Advantage Trump
Of all the issues measured in the polls, Trump favored Harris the most among Arizona voters who cited the border as a major factor in their vote. During this campaign, this was a more important issue for Republicans than Democrats.
Voters have different views on how the candidate’s policies will affect the number of migrants trying to cross the border. Most voters think border crossings will decrease with Trump in office, while a large proportion think they will increase because of Harris’ policies.
Beyond the border issue, opinions about recent immigration affecting life in Arizona are shaping voters’ presidential choices. Those who feel that new immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life in Arizona worse support Trump, while those who feel that new immigrants have improved life in the state or have had little impact support Harris.
And most voters see Trump’s policies as putting the interests of current US citizens ahead of the interests of new immigrants, while many see Harris’ policies as putting the interests of new immigrants ahead of US citizens.
Trump’s idea to start a national program to find and deport all immigrants who are in the US illegally was overwhelmingly supported by voters, and also won more than half of Arizona voters overall. We see similar support for this nationally.
Abortion: Advantage Harris
The abortion issue helped keep Democrats competitive in 2022, and helped Harris in 2024, but it’s not enough to push him ahead of Trump right now. Here is the reason.
Most voters support legalizing abortion in Arizona, and there is a slim majority of support for Proposition 139, a ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, but this support for legal abortion does not all translate into support for Harris. There was a sizable percentage of voters — 1 in 5 — who said they would vote against Proposition 139 but would vote for Trump for president.
And we have looked at it Our national poll, Arizona voters are more likely to think Trump will leave the issue of abortion to the stateso the Harris campaign’s argument that Trump will try to put a national abortion ban in place has not resonated with most Arizona voters outside the Democratic Party.
Additionally, while Harris leads Trump by a wide margin among voters who say abortion is a major factor in their vote, more voters prioritize the economy and inflation, and Trump leads Harris on those issues.
Democracy: Advantage Harris
Democratic countries are the top issue for voters – only the economy and inflation are cited by more voters as the main factors in their vote. And as we’ve seen nationally, Harris leads Trump among those who say democracy is a major factor in their vote. It’s not as wide a margin as the lead in abortion, but it’s a factor that keeps this contest close.
Latino voters
Arizona’s Latino voters support Harris against Trump, but not by as wide a margin as they supported Joe Biden against Trump in 2020. Harris has yet to convince most Latino voters that his policies will help their personal financial situation (Trump doesn’t either), but personal finance is closely related to presidential election. Latino voters who felt good about their own finances supported Harris, but those who said their personal financial situation was poor were more likely to vote.
And Trump’s idea of ​​a program that would deport all immigrants in the U.S. illegally found support with some Latino voters, though most opposed the idea.
Arizona’s election system
Skepticism about the results of 2020 election remains widespread among Arizona Republicans and Trump supporters. They do not consider Joe Biden to be the legitimate winner in Arizona in 2020, and today, only 9% of Trump voters are very confident that the election in their state will be handled fairly and accurately. This is in stark contrast to the Harris voter.
As we look ahead to November, nearly half of Trump supporters want to see the election in Arizona challenged and investigated if Harris wins, while a majority of Harris voters say the election results should be accepted no one wins.
Senate race
In the Arizona Senate race, Lake trailed Gallego by 9 points, largely due to several Republicans and independents splitting the ticket by voting for Trump in the presidential race and Gallego for the Senate.
Lake is seen as extreme by most Arizona voters – including by Trump supporters who plan to vote for Gallego in the Senate race – while Gallego is seen by most Arizona voters as reasonable.
Lake has a commanding lead among those who believe recent immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life in Arizona worse, a view held by nearly half of Arizona voters.
But even among those who voted for him, he appears to have had less personal appeal than Trump did at the top of the ticket. While most Trump voters supported him because they liked him, most Lake voters supported him because he was the Republican candidate or against a Democratic opponent.
Gallego, on the other hand, has a clear lead among moderates and independents (independents are more divided between Harris and Trump), and has the support of more than a quarter of Republicans who do not identify with the MAGA movement.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a statewide representative sample of 1,439 registered voters in Arizona who were interviewed between October 11-16, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, education and geographic region, based on US Census data. and voter files, also for past votes. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.3 points.
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