Four sweeps. Little drama. Each series in the first round of the 2024 WNBA playoffs has ended in two games.
But while the semifinals transcend the best-of-five format, all four teams are still legitimate title contenders.
The New York Liberty and the Connecticut Sun are going for the first championship in franchise history. The Las Vegas Aces are hoping to become just the second team to win three in a row. And the Minnesota Lynx are trying to become the first franchise to win five.
The Liberty have the best regular season record in the league, but this ring race does not appear to be the clear favorite. The semi-final match was exciting because it was so close. New York vs. Las Vegas, the rematch of the 2023 WNBA Finals, features the two highest scoring teams in the league, while Connecticut and Minnesota rank 1-2 in points allowed.
The last five MVPs are still playing, as are four of the top five vote-getters this year: unanimous winners A’ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier, Breanna Stewart and Alyssa Thomas.
Each series starts on Sunday. Here’s what each team needs to do to win the championship, and the flaws that could derail their title hopes.
Why Liberty can win the title: If Breanna Stewart was the best player on the court for the majority of New York games, there would be a parade down the Canyon of Heroes on Broadway. The two-time league MVP also had plenty of assists. There is another former MVP in Jonquel Jones. Another Olympic gold medal in Sabrina Ionescu. One of the WNBA’s all-time great point guards in Courtney Vandersloot. Top-seeded New York might be the deepest team in the league. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton was able to score 20 points on the night. Leonie Fiebich scored just 21 points in her playoff debut.
But Stewart was one of the players at Liberty who could determine his fate. He doesn’t have to be the most outstanding player in the next two series for the Liberty to win the title, but if he is, that’s the clincher. This means Stewart has beaten A’ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier or Alyssa Thomas. The Aces, Lynx and Sun can’t win without the best of the best, and Stewart can be the best of them all.
Can a fatal flaw cost New York the championship? What makes Liberty so hard to beat is that they don’t have any significant weaknesses. Statistically, New York is the least competent in every category that matters — and the best. But Liberty has lapses – stretching in the game or even full 40 minutes – when the ball does not move enough or when they are not engaged defensively. That at least explains losses such as Mercury in mid-June (offense) or the late August head-scratcher to Sparks (defense).
These offensive lapses often coincide with poor shooting nights by Ionescu. In New York’s eight losses, Ionescu shot 30.7% from the field. There were also games when Jones ignored the offense. New York is always better when the 6-foot-6 forward is involved.
Why the Lynx can win the title: No other team in the league moves the ball, distributes the ball and looks like Minnesota. The offense is well coached and has the right mix of talent to make it work. The Lynx’s chemistry has been praised all year as teams picked sixth through ninth in the preseason won three quarters of their games, were the best team in the WNBA after the Olympic break and were seeded No. 2 in the playoffs.
The Lynx finished first in the league in assists and assisted shooting rate. Collier thrived in Cheryl Reeve’s system and had the best season of her career. If the Lynx lean towards the brilliance of Collier in high and low positions, and Kayla McBride, Bridget Carleton and Alanna Smith shoot from deep all season – Minnesota is the league leader in 3-point shooting percentage – the Lynx can clinch their fifth title, which will break the tie with the Houston Comets and Seattle Storm for the most in WNBA history.
Could a fatal flaw cost Minnesota the championship? Of the four remaining teams, the Lynx were the least physical. By itself that doesn’t mean much, especially the way Minnesota passes and shoots. But if the shooter doesn’t fall, what is Minnesota’s Plan B? The Lynx rank in the bottom half of the league in nearly every rebounding category. Only the Mystics hit the foul line with less frequency than the Lynx. Minnesota won’t win with second points or free throws. The mid-August acquisition of Myisha Hines-Allen for the regular season run helped, but the Lynx still need to play board and not scrum rugby.
Why Sun can win the title: In contrast, physicality is exactly how third-seeded Connecticut likes to play. Thomas and Brionna Jones thrive on contact. Marina Mabrey and DiJonai Carrington are “in your face”-type players. Connecticut plays at the slowest pace in the league and allows the fewest points per game. The style matchup with Minnesota makes the semifinal matchup even more interesting.
Thomas, as always, is the key. The offense is going through him and he needs to put up big numbers for Connecticut to beat the best team in the league. But Mabrey is the ultimate X factor. Acquired in a trade just before the All-Star break, he gave the Suns 3-point shooting they didn’t have before. Mabrey made 42.4% of his 3-point attempts in 16 regular-season games with the Suns after the trade from Chicago, then averaged a career-best 22 points per game in a first-round playoff win over Indiana.
Could a fatal flaw cost Connecticut the championship? Even with Mabrey, this is not a great 3-point shooting team. Carrington shoots 25.0% from deep. DeWanna Bonner is at 29.4%. The Suns are 11th in 3-point percentage – and it gets even worse if point guard Tyasha Harris can’t go. He suffered an ankle injury in Game 1 against the Fever and missed Game 2. Harris, a 39.5% 3-point shooter who averaged 10.5 PPG, is the type of defender Connecticut needs against players like Minnesota’s Courtney Williams or in a Finals matchup potential. with Ionescu or Aces’ Jackie Young. Harris ranks 16th in the league in defensive win shares. Without him, Mabrey went from being a spark plug off the bench to starting — and had to handle the ball more.
Why the Aces can win the title: If Chelsea Gray is Chelsea Gray. Becky Hammon knows she will get big production from Wilson every game. Perhaps no player in league history has been as consistent as Wilson. Kelsey Plum and Young have been able to step up big time this year, although they haven’t been as consistent as they have been the past two seasons.
But the best version of Gray is mostly missing this season. The leg injury he suffered in last year’s Finals led to the start of the season. Gray didn’t make his debut until June 19, and only showed glimpses of his “gawd spot” for most of the second half of the regular season as progress came slowly. Then Gray showed up in the first round series vs. Seattle. He made some big shots and rebounded with 16 assists in two games. He moved well and played 32 minutes in both games (Gray has played at least a few minutes in just one other game this season). The fourth-seeded Aces now have a big back four, a core that has delivered a WNBA title.
Could a fatal flaw cost Las Vegas the championship? The Aces gave up 98 points to a Phoenix Mercury team without Brittney Griner in the third game of the season. From then on, Hammon looked to be in his team’s defense every day. Las Vegas could stop more consistently since the end of August and the beginning of September, when it rattled off nine wins in the final 10 regular-season games. The Aces have also given up just 0.6 more points per game this year than last. The defense just hasn’t been trusted. Wilson, who won the WNBA Defensive Player of the Year in 2022 and 2023, had an even better statistical season this year, with career highs in blocks and steals, and had the league’s third-highest defensive rating. Kiah Stokes was the only other Las Vegas player to finish in the top 50.
