Mexicans will vote on Sunday in an election that is groundbreaking on several fronts: it is set to be the biggest race in the country’s history, it has been among the most violent in recent memory, and it is likely to put a woman in the presidency for the first time. never time.
The two main contenders, who largely split the electorate between them according to opinion polls, are women. The front-runner is Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist who represents the ruling party and her party allies. His closest rival is X贸chitl G谩lvez, a businessman on a ticket that includes a collection of opposition parties.
Mrs. Sheinbaum has a double-digit lead in the polls for months, but the opposition has supported numbers that underestimate the true support for that candidate. In the interview, Ms. G谩lvez said “there is an anti-system vote,” and if the Mexicans come out on Sunday, “we will win.”
“He is in a mind-set where he is ahead by 30 points,” said Ms. G谩lvez, from whom he competes. “But he’s going to have the surprise of his life.”
This contest shows the great steps in Mexican politics made in recent years by women, who were not allowed to vote in the country until 1953. Both top candidates have a lot of experience; Mrs. G谩lvez is a senator and Ms. Sheinbaum ruled the capital, one of the largest cities in the hemisphere.
“For the first time in 200 years of the republic, we women will come to the highest distinction our men can give us: the president of Mexico,” Ms. Sheinbaum said in a recent speech.
But much of the race is focused on a figure who is not on the ballot but looms large: the powerful current president, Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador.
Mr L贸pez Obrador has been a fixture in Mexican politics for decades, serving as president in all three previous elections before winning in a landslide in 2018.
While generally popular, Mr L贸pez Obrador has become a polarizing figure, drawing praise from die-hard fans and vitriol from critics. His administration doubled the minimum wage and used cash transfer programs to help lift millions out of poverty, while strengthening the military and pursuing measures that many warned would undermine democratic institutions.
His dominance upset the politics of the establishment, causing three parties, from the right, center and left, to create an uneasy union that now supports Ms. G谩lvez.
Sheinbaum has appealed to voters mainly by promising to continue his legacy. Mrs. G谩lvez sees himself as an alternative to those unhappy with Mr L贸pez Obrador’s leadership, vowing to reverse many of his policies.
“The way this election was done is proof of L贸pez Obrador’s influence in Mexican politics,” said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexican political analyst. “They are the center where political identity and political positions are defined.”
Whoever succeeds Mr. L贸pez Obrador will face a formidable challenge.
Cartel violence continues to plague the country, displacing people en masse and leading to one of the deadliest campaign cycles in Mexican history. Mr. L贸pez Obrador is directing the government’s attention to tackling the drivers of violence rather than fighting criminal groups, a strategy he calls “hugs not bullets.”
Mrs. G谩lvez has slammed the approach.
“Enough hugs for criminals, and bullets for citizens,” he said during the campaign. He said he would withdraw the armed forces from civilian activities and direct them to focus on fighting organized crime, while strengthening the police.
Mrs. Sheinbaum has said that he will continue to focus on the social causes of violence, but he will also be able to lower the rate of impunity and build up the national guard.
Economically, the opportunity is clear: Mexico is now the United States’ largest trading partner, benefiting from a recent shift in manufacturing from China. The currency is so strong that it is called the “super peso”.
But there is also a simmering problem. The federal deficit has risen by about 6 percent this year, and Pemex, the national oil company, is operating under debt, straining public finances.
“The fiscal risks we face today are ones we haven’t seen in decades,” said Mariana Campos, director of M茅xico Eval煤a, a public policy research group.
Other challenges include new responsibilities given to the armed forces, which are tasked with running ports and airports, running airlines, and building railroads through the Mayan jungle. Mrs. Sheinbaum has said “no militarization” of the country, while suggesting that he is open to a re-evaluation of military involvement in public companies.
In addition to such domestic challenges, the fate of the next president will be tied to the outcome of the presidential election in the United States. A re-election victory for President Biden will provide continuity, but the return of Donald J. Trump to the White House will likely be unpredictable.
Mr. Trump’s plan to round up undocumented people on a large scale and deport them to their countries of origin could target millions of Mexicans living in the United States. They have threatened to put 100 percent tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico.
Then there is the issue of fentanyl, which, the US government says, cartels produce in Mexico using chemicals imported from China. Mr Trump has suggested taking military action to combat the fentanyl trade.
Handling that pressure from Washington, even in the form of outrageous campaign rhetoric, could be a challenge for Mexico’s next president.
Sheinbaum said Mexico would have a “good relationship” with either Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden as president, and his campaign team said it would continue to work to contain the flow of migrants.
Mrs. G谩lvez said he, too, would be comfortable with both of them.
Asked how she would deal with Mr Trump, she said: “I’m used to dealing with toxic masculinity.”
“It seems that Trump, at his core, is a pragmatic person,” he said, adding: “What he wants is to solve the problem at the border and fentanyl, and I think he can.”
Emiliano Rodr铆guez Mega contributed reporting from Mexico City.
