When Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential candidate, the party experienced great enthusiasm from voters. It pulled the party into effect even a race with Donald Trump and the Republicans, and has continued to motivate Democrats to vote today.
He and Trump even went through the battleground states that will decide the Electoral College, and now Harris has a 3-point edge nationally.
The last-change campaign has also opened a historical dynamic, the race in the race to determine the two Harris and the main problem.
Trumpfor the part, there are still many advantages: which leads to people who speak in economy it is the main factor, and he led with voters who said they did not do well financially.
But voters tell us there’s more to the problem than – abortiondemocratic countries, the border between them – and the contest is marked by a pronounced gender gap between men and women and very different views of the candidate who will help them.
Heading into the convention, many voters are still learning about Harris, creating an important test for the party this week. A third said he didn’t know what he meant yet. Most voters think he’s the same — but not all the same — as Joe Biden. And they somewhat — but not entirely — appear to be related to Mr. Biden’s economy.
Democrats have continued to close the gap with Republicans in expressing their intention to vote; today, they are effectively even with the Republicans speaking.
Behind the gender-gap election
The gender gap has narrowed and is now approaching the 2020 level. But it’s more than a voting break. It supports very different priorities and perceptions.
First, women are more likely than men to see Harris as someone who “fights for people like you”. And women are more likely to see Harris than Trump as fighting for people like them.
Second, opinions on gender equality efforts are linked to voting.
Those who think that efforts to promote gender equality between men and women have gone too far in America today are voting for Trump in large numbers. That’s especially true for men who think like that.
Those who felt that his efforts to promote the same did not go far enough or were right for Harris.
Third, women helped Harris more economically than Mr. Biden.
Despite still trailing Trump on the issue, Harris did 8 points better than Mr. Biden in June among women who said the economy was a major factor for them. They are effective even with Trump now among this group. He was also 7 points better than where Mr. Biden was in June among women who said inflation was a major factor.
Abortion: Deja-vu from ’22?
For rank-and-file Democrats, abortion and state democracy outweigh the economy as key factors in their vote.
Pro-abortion-rights voters may feel better about Harris than Mr. Biden, at least in terms of voting. He got a higher share of the vote than he did among women who wanted abortion legalized.
And 71% of voters think Harris will try to pass a national law protecting abortion.
Three-quarters of voters want mifepristone available. Nine in 10 believe Harris will either create it or keep it, while seven in 10 say Trump will try to limit such access.
But Democrats are more likely than independents or Republicans to cite abortion as a major factor.
Fewer voters generally say abortion is a “major factor” in their vote than say the economy.
So the key metric to watch in this campaign is whether that view transcends party ranks.
The race to determine Harris (And how much separation from Biden does it take?)
People know Trump, agree with him or not. Nearly nine out of 10 voters said they know what it stands for.
But it’s a little less for Harris, since he’s the only nominee. About a third said they didn’t know what they were talking about.
That adds another key to watching at the convention as Democrats try to define their message ahead of Trump’s campaign.
Those who share his policy views with Mr. Biden, who are mostly Republicans, voted for Trump.
But Harris is doing better among voters who think of him in general but not as much as Mr. Biden. This is obvious for Democrats, but also for independents.
How does it relate to Biden’s economy?
The economy has been looking bad for a long time, but Harris’ role as vice president is just that.
Most voters across party lines said Harris’ decision as vice president would have the least impact on the U.S. economy, but some said it would have “a lot” of impact.
Meanwhile, Trump leads in the perception that he can make the price of food and groceries go down. It was measured mostly before Harris launched his inflation plan in a Friday speech. But that sentiment appears to be driven more by general beliefs than by specific policies.
When we follow up with voters who think Trump won means lower wholesale prices for them and ask why, most say it is mainly because of the “general trust” they have in Trump rather than a specific policy they hear him propose.
Whether Trump can maintain or widen the gap, or whether Harris can begin to close it, could be another important item to watch at the convention and in the coming weeks.
How is he tied to the border?
Trump remains visible to many voters because he has policies that will reduce border crossings.
Trump also leads among those who say the border is a major factor in their vote. In fact, it is the biggest leader among problem groups, even higher than inflation. (Partly because Republicans cite these factors.)
Harris is somewhat, but not entirely, related to US border policy: a third thinks that his decisions as vice president have “a lot” to do with the current situation. While this was largely driven by Republicans, it was higher than the number of voters who linked their decision as vice president to the economy.
But border crossing attempts are reportedly down, and the percentage of voters who call the border a crisis, while still high, is down slightly from the spring.
For all that, many of these contests have been locked in. Very rarely voters show openness to considering other candidates – other evidence this will probably be decided by the turnout.
So, for Democrats, the convention will be about keeping that spirit alive among the base.
Updated state level estimates of CBS News statistical model shows a close race in all seven battlegrounds – they are all well within the margin of error, with both Harris and Trump in a position to win if the election is today.
Here’s how the issue relates to voting options. Voters may identify multiple items as factors in their decision.
And all this leads to the Democratic convention as a guide to watch, because they – and the Republicans against – compete in the contest in the contest to determine whether 2024 will be the end.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 3,258 registered voters nationwide who were interviewed between August 14-16, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education based on the US Census American Community Survey and the Census Current Population Survey USA, also the past vote. Respondents were selected as representatives of registered voters nationwide. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.1 points.
The battlegrounds are AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI.
