No one can blame Donald Trump for believing that divine providence is on his side. He has the best record in political memory.
While his debate performance was outstanding only when judged on the curve, his opponent was a debacle by objective standards. Then the Supreme Court issued an extraordinary ruling on the president’s immunity, at least delaying the federal case against him until after the election. And a single concurrence by Justice Clarence Thomas in that decision apparently inspired Aileen Cannon, a federal judge in Florida, to throw out the classified documents case against him.
Oh, and the assassin shot at him and missed. More precisely: almost missed it. A bullet sliced ​​through the top of Trump’s right ear; if he had turned his head or two millimeters in the wrong direction, he would have died, and the length of the graphic murder that will now be the background of a new dark chapter of American life.
All this happened on the eve of the Republican National Convention, buoying the party and consolidating support for Trump’s candidacy. It is certainly understandable, even if it is irrational in a human way. There is nothing logical about the idea that the shooting of a disturbed young man — and a registered Republican — makes Trump any more eligible to be president. But it makes emotional sense.
It also eliminates President Biden’s primary reason for re-election, at least for the foreseeable future. In addition to abortion rights, “protecting democracy” will be an issue Biden is running for re-election. However, in today’s climate, attacking Trump is as much a threat to democracy as extreme rhetoric — as it has been. But if Biden can’t reassert his case against Trump — after spending tens of millions of dollars on advertising — what case does he have?
I reject the idea that criticizing Trump for trying to steal the last election or for his own extreme rhetoric is suddenly invalid. But the political reality is what it is.
Even more fortunate for Trump is that the assassination attempt also bolstered Biden’s candidacy, albeit in a very different way.
The Democratic Party is not enthusiastic about Biden. In an NBC News poll conducted shortly before the shooting, only 33% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they liked their party’s nominee, compared to 71% of Republicans. There is no reason to think that an assassination attempt will cause rank-and-file Democrats to rally around Biden.
But what it did was cause senior Democrats who decided to push Biden to despair and set themselves up for defeat. “The presidential contest ended last night,” an unidentified “veteran Democratic consultant” told NBC News after the assassination attempt. “(Trump) is on the road to victory,” a Democratic Senate aide told Semafor, “and the fact that he is now a victim of political violence rather than a perpetrator undermines Biden’s primary appeal.”
I’m right, and all these reports show Democrats have lost the will to do anything.
Biden’s Oval Office address on Sunday was nothing short of terrifying. It struck a welcome, conciliatory tone, and appeals from unnecessary partisanship were held partly because they had to. Biden is an avatar of the cultural status quo: He is running to restore normalcy and “unify” the country. Whether or not it is fair to judge him on that score, he failed.
And that’s why the address is a missed opportunity. Biden may announce that he is quitting his party’s nomination and in the process try to pull Trump with him. He could have – and should – say this country is better than the race most Americans do not want between two grumpy old men who have come to represent two warring tribes. They should ask to turn the page and give a new starting state.
Biden is an unpopular incumbent who will never become more powerful or cognitively acute. And he certainly won’t have a Trump-like moment on Saturday night.
Simply put, Biden’s luck has run out. But he still managed to stop the fortunes that his opponents couldn’t.
Jonah Goldberg is editor-in-chief of The Dispatch and host of The Remnant podcast. His Twitter handle is @JonahDispatch.
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