The Rise of Le Pen shows the scale of polarization

“We are afraid of what could happen,” Amel, 34, told CNBC ahead of the final round of voting in France’s snap election this weekend.

The vote is being watched closely by all parties in French society to see whether the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally (RN) builds on its initial victory in the first round of voting, or whether the center and left-wing parties have been able to hinder the party’s chances for enter the government.

“This is a very, very tense time. And this is the first time that the far right won in the first turn (the first round of the ballot). for the New Popular Front leftwing, added.

“We are very worried and we are trying to get everyone to vote, trying to tell those who didn’t vote to vote, and trying to convince those who voted for the extreme right that they are not a good answer. French problem).

France’s far-right RN rejects the “extremist” label, saying that it is the values, people, culture and citizens of France while many are tired of the French political government led by President Emmanuel Macron since 2017.

But opponents and critics of the RN warn France is on the brink of political disaster if the anti-immigration, nationalist and euroskeptic party wins a majority in this snap election called by Macron after his party lost heavily against the right in the European Parliament elections. in June. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said French voters now had a “moral duty” to prevent his party’s progress.

For young voters, left-leaning like Amel, the rise of the RN in the voter polls, and the fact that it won the most votes in the first round of the last weekend’s elections, is a worrying development that makes people fear for French social cohesion.

“I’m worried about the future of the country. I think it’s getting worse and worse,” said Amel, who preferred to give his first name because of the sensitive nature of the situation. “It will be like a civil war. I hope it will not come to that, but people will not mix anymore and will be afraid of each other. And this is very scary.”

The snap election has thrown the country’s political polarization into relief as polls ahead of Sunday’s final round of voting show a deeply divided country.

The first round of the election resulted in the far-right RN winning 33% of the vote, with the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) winning 28% and the coalition of parties supporting Macron (Ensemble, or Together) winning 20% ​​of the vote. choose.

Since the results of the first vote, parties on the center-right and left have gone all out to prevent the advance of the RN in the second vote, aiming to prevent a parliamentary majority for the party at all costs. Joining the so-called “Republican Front,” centrist and left-wing parties have backed candidates in many constituencies where one of their candidates is better placed to defeat the RN.

By giving voters clearer choices and fewer options, the anti-right front hopes that voters will vote for non-RN candidates. Whether that will work remains to be seen and analysts suggest that French voters may not like being told how to vote, or who to vote for.

The final result on Sunday afternoon – the result of the snap election Macron did not need to call – will show how difficult it is to find consensus in national politics and governance.

How the country will react to the results is also uncertain. France is no stranger to civil unrest thanks to the “Yellow Vest” anti-government movement that has spread in recent years, and street protests since the first round of elections on June 30.

France’s Interior Ministry appears to be bracing for more trouble after Sunday’s poll, reportedly readying to deploy around 30,000 officers across France on Sunday, amid fears of violence after polls close. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin reportedly said 5,000 police would be on duty in Paris and the surrounding area to “ensure that the radical right and the radical left do not take advantage of the situation to cause chaos.”

French police forces have, at times, been heavily criticized by protesters during previous riots, firing water cannons and tear gas at “yellow vest” protesters in 2019.

A member of the gendarmerie, the French military force responsible for law enforcement and public order, told CNBC that “the French election was a mess” and that “public separation has been very rare in France.”

“People’s thinking is growing and this is felt in our daily lives,” the general, who asked to remain anonymous because of the nature of his work, told CNBC.

The officer – a father of three in his 40s, and who identifies as a far-right voter – said the polarization in French society was “very worrying, but unfortunately normal with the ‘diversity’ of our society.”

“Many people with different values ​​and education are forced to live together, and this is clearly not possible,” said the official, who works in Bordeaux in southwestern France.

“I am worried about the future of the country, because we are very generous to people who are not willing to integrate and contribute to society, this cannot last.”

Police officers say they expect civil unrest after the election, whichever party gets the most votes.

“There will be civil unrest whoever is elected, this is France and people speak their minds,” he said.

Political experts agree that the current French political atmosphere, and the antagonism between the main bodies of the electorate, are ingredients for further civil unrest.

“You’ve got all the recipes for a super-polarized political scene and, of course, that translates into civil society as a whole,” Philippe Marlière, professor of French and European politics at University College London, told CNBC.

“If you only get 33-34% of people who vote on the right, which means that others are wary, or oppose everything, then it will translate at every level of politics – institutional politics, party politics, the National Assembly, but also in society, you will have a society which is very polarized where young people, ethnic minorities, women, and especially feminists, will be very worried,” he said.

Marlière did not rule out the possibility of violence in the streets if a right-wing party is elected to government. “We are not there yet. But if there is a policy that is very unpopular, antagonizing and very hostile to some groups, there will be demonstrations on a scale that has riots in the streets,” he said.

Like other right-wing parties in Europe, the National Rally has raised voters’ insecurities about crime, immigration, national identity and economic insecurity. RN leader Jordan Bardella, 28, told voters he would “restore order,” curb immigration and tackle crime, but he and party leader Marine Le Pen have rejected some of their more strident promises and rhetoric, pulling back from taking over. France quit NATO, for example, and moderated the party’s traditional pro-Russian stance.

Bardella said he would still support arms shipments to Ukraine but not the deployment of ground troops, as Macron suggested was a possibility.

It is not certain how many National Rally policies will be implemented even if the party becomes the government. The “Republican Front” also looks confidently ahead in the second round of voting where the strategy to undermine the RN vote share can be used.

An opinion poll published by Ifop on July 3 suggests voters may lean towards a pro-Macron or left-wing candidate rather than the RN candidate if that is the choice presented on Sunday’s ballot paper. If the choice is between far-left and far-right candidates, however, the picture is more nuanced, showing a split vote.

Analysts predict that the RN is less likely to get an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577 seats of the National Assembly, but it is still likely to collect the most votes, creating a hung parliament scenario and a headache for Macron and uncertainty for French politics. and economic prospects.

“The political landscape is in turmoil and it no longer works, at least under the old rules,” Ipsos analyst Mathieu Doiret told CNBC Thursday.

“We are in a situation so far from tradition and political habitus that it is very difficult to adapt to this new situation for every stakeholder.”