Discover the Surprising Climate – New York Times

We humans have lived in all kinds of precarious environments: dry deserts, barren tundra, high mountains. Nothing is precarious in the same way as an atoll, a small island located in the tropics. As the planet warms and seas rise, atoll nations like the Maldives, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu look set to disappear, like the mythical Atlantis, into oblivion.

Recently, however, scientists have begun to tell a fascinating new story about the island. By comparing aerial photographs from the mid-20th century with recent satellite images, they can see how the island has developed over time. What they found was surprising: Even as sea levels rise, many islands are not receding. Most, in fact, have stabilized. Some have even grown.

One study that pooled scientists’ data on 709 islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans showed that nearly 89 percent of these areas either increased in size or did not change much in recent decades. Only 11 percent were contracted.

To understand why, I spent last spring with a team of researchers in the Maldives collecting data on two pieces of the puzzle: ocean currents and sand.

Currents and waves can erode sandy shorelines, of course. But it can also bring fresh sand from the surrounding coral reefs, where the remains of corals, algae, crustaceans and other organisms are constantly being crushed into new sediment. (Another source of sediment? Colorful parrotfish, which feed on coral and excrete white sand from their digestive tract.)

By examining how these interrelated and complex processes affect one particular island – Dhigulaabadhoo, an uninhabited curlicue a few miles north of the Equator – scientists hope to better predict how other islands will change.

The next century

Although the research shows that the atoll will not be completely flooded, there is almost nothing to worry about. Global warming is putting coral reefs under severe pressure. If, for example, the ice sheets melt faster than expected, then sea level rise could be very rapid.

Even so, scientists say, the revelation that atolls can naturally adapt to rising seas means the people who live there have a chance to figure out how to cope with their changing environment. That means they have other options besides the most drastic: leaving their homeland.

“I’m sure there will be an island in the Maldives” 50 or 100 years from now, one of the researchers on the team, Paul Kench, told us when we were in Dhigulaabadhoo. “They will not look like this island; they will be different. But there will be land here. For me, it is a challenge: How can you live together with the changes that are coming?

The Maldives needs to cultivate and recruit more scientific experts who can guide the nation’s efforts to adapt, said Ali Shareef, the government’s special envoy for climate change. Without them, it would be difficult to build infrastructure and reduce coral damage, or design flood-resistant cities.

Money is also an issue. “If we have access to technology and finance, I think we can save the Maldives. It’s not all doomsday,” said Shauna Aminath, a former environment minister. “The problem is, we don’t have access to finance and technology.”

If we humans can find a way to survive and thrive on atolls, it will bode well for our ability to continue doing so throughout our warming planet. As Jon Barnett, a geographer at the University of Melbourne, says: “If we can solve climate change adaptation for atolls – ‘solving’ is the wrong word – then we can do it everywhere.”

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