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Chandrababu Naidu’s and MK Stalin’s statement highlights the common concern among the southern states that the delimitation process — which is based on the last census — will reduce their representation in Parliament.
For the first time in its history, India has managed to reach a total fertility rate below the fertility rate, but leaders from southern India seem to be different as they urge people to have more children.
But why are the chief ministers making such a demand after decades of India’s attempts at population control have shown results? The answer is hidden in the country’s total fertility rate (TFR), which is lower for southern states than for northern ones.
TFR is the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime. For zero population growth, the TFR must be at a fertility replacement rate of 2.1 – where the population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.
Over the years, various governments in India have launched several campaigns to stabilize the population at a total fertility rate of 2.1. As per the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), which was conducted during 2019-21, India achieved this feat for the first time in 2021 when the national average TFR touched 1.99. TFR ranges from 1.1 children per woman in Sikkim to three children per woman in Bihar.
It is also important to note that the main countries have done well but still some countries have a TFR higher than the national average or more than 2.1.
A total of 31 states and Union Territories, including all southern states, have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. However, Bihar (2.98), Meghalaya (2.91), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26) and Manipur (2.17) have a TFR of more than 2.1. The situation in Bihar, UP and Jharkhand is worrying. While UP is the most populous state in India according to the 2011 census, Bihar is third and Jharkhand is in the top 15 list.
The following changed fertility eventually led to negative population growth but it lasted for a long time – at least for several decades. The same goes for southern countries.
For a long time, states in south India had lower TFR. In the third survey of the NFHS in 2005-06, all these countries have a TFR below or at 2.1. While at that time the average TFR of India and most of the Indian states located in the north was higher, as shown in the graph.
In India, Kerala was the first state to achieve a TRF of 2.1 or below in 1988. Tamil Nadu joined the team in 1993. Andhra Pradesh (2001) and Karnataka (2005) were next on the list. Telangana has TFR below two since its formation.
What do the leaders say?
In the last seven days, two chief ministers from southern India have asked their people to have more children.
First, it was Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu and then his Tamil Nadu counterpart MK Stalin who said that the Parliamentary delimitation process could encourage couples to have more children and not think about small families. “…now a situation has arisen where people think now they have to raise 16 children and not a small and prosperous family,” Stalin said.
The Delimitation Process and its relationship to population
After each census, a delimitation commission is formed which delimits the boundaries of the parliamentary constituencies in accordance with the provisions of the Delimitation Act.
Constituency delimitation has now been done on the basis of the 2001 Census figures under the provisions of the Delimitation Act, 2002.
The Constitution of India was specifically amended in 2002 to have no constituency boundaries until the first census after 2026. Thus, the current constituencies carved out based on the 2001 census will continue to operate until the first census after 2026.
The population of the state is the basis for the allocation of Lok Sabha seats. Each state and UT gets representation in the Lok Sabha in proportion to its population as per census. Due to low population, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh, Lakshadweep, Ladakh and Puducherry have one seat each.
The number of Lok Sabha seats in 1951 was 489 which has increased to 543 today after four rounds of delimitation held in 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002. In the delimitation of 1973, the number of Lok Sabha seats increased to 543 – till date.
To sum up, a state with a higher population can be divided into more Lok Sabha seats which means more representation in the Lower House and more funding for the region. On the other hand, a state that has been able to control the population will result in fewer seats than before or no change.
While Rajasthan is the state with the highest area, Uttar Pradesh has the highest number of seats in the Lok Sabha due to pollution. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar collectively hold 140 Lok Sabha seats – more than a quarter of the total constituencies in India. On the other hand, five southern Indian states – Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Telangana – have only 129 Lok Sabha seats.
Concerned
Statements from the two CMs highlight common concerns in the southern states that the delimitation process – which is based on the last census – will reduce representation in Parliament.
Earlier this year, the Tamil Nadu Assembly adopted a resolution opposing the scheduled delimitation exercise to redraw the polling constituencies in 2026.
Both these states have been victims of the fall in Lok Sabha seats after the delimitation of 1962. Tamil Nadu, like Madras, had 41 Lok Sabha seats in 1962 while Andhra Pradesh had 43 seats. Both states lost two seats each.
In August 2021, a bench of the Madras High Court observed that Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have been facing unfair representation in the Lok Sabha since 1962 as the states have reduced their population by implementing family planning measures – pushed by the Union government for several years year.
The Supreme Court said that the state should be compensated financially or increase its representation in the Rajya Sabha. There has been no change in the number of Lok Sabha seats since 1977.
Probability of Success
While the number is unofficial, rough calculations suggest that India’s total Lok Sabha seats could go up by around 200 in the next delimitation.
If that happens, Uttar Pradesh will have 143 seats, while Kerala will remain in 20 Lok Sabha constituencies. The situation in various countries has been shown in the chart.
According to the article “India’s emerging representation crisis” published at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace by Jamie Hintson and Milan Vaishnav in 2019, taking the projected population for 2026 as a basis, if no country will lose representation, the Lok Sabha will have it. consisting of 846 MPs.
Thus, even if the number of Lok Sabha seats for states with lower TFRs is not reduced, it will also not increase the proportion of states with higher TFRs, resulting in lower representation.
The last time India held a census was in 2011. The one to be held in 2021 was postponed due to the spread of the coronavirus infection.
The government has said that the next census will be conducted after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections that conclude in June. However, the process may be delayed as delimitation can only be done considering the first census after 2026. For the next delimitation, India will have to have a census conducted after 2026. Both these things may take more than five years to complete.