-
Tom Hamilton, Senior Writer
Be honest: Who had this as their quarterfinal lineup when the draw was made? Who is not Novak Djokovic or Carlos Alcaraz in the round of eight in the men’s team? And who has Coco Gauff bowed before the quarterfinals of the women’s singles, complete with 60 unforced errors against Emma Navarro?
In the most unpredictable US Opens in a new window, we try to break down the favorites still.
Single female
Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka is in good company. She is now in her fourth consecutive US Open quarterfinal – the first woman to achieve the feat since Serena Williams’ run from 2011 to 2016. In the process, she became the sixth woman since 2000 to reach eight consecutive Slam quarterfinals- follow He has the experience and form to take on all tournaments.
Until now, New York’s best finish was last year’s final where he ran into Gauff, but he’s the best to win all this time. She dropped just one set going into the quarters, after seeing off Priscilla Hon, Lucia Bronzetti, Ekaterina Alexandrova in three and then Elise Mertens in straight sets in the fourth round.
“I just don’t want to leave early here, you know,” Sabalenka said after defeating Mertens. I just want to stay as long as I can and enjoy this beautiful court, a beautiful atmosphere.”
Iga Swiatek
Swiatek has spent time in New York trying to stay cool in front of superstars. Before winning in the third round of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Serena Williams was in the building and bumped to the current world No.1.
“I’m glad he’s following my tennis and my game because he’s telling me he likes me,” Swiatek said after beating Pavlyuchenkova 6-4, 6-2. “It’s always nice to hear from someone like Serena.”
Swiatek has been one of the best in the game, with five Slams to his name. Four of them came on the clay of Paris, but the other is in Flushing Meadows in 2022. Swiatek played well in New York. After his tumultuous Olympics – where he was the favorite and finished with bronze – he built up well in New York. So far she has appeared in Kamilla Rakhimova, Ena Shibahara, Pavlyuchenkova and Lludmila Samsonova — the latter in a live set. In the match, he was the second star in two weeks, after seeing Jason Sudeikis in the crowd.
“I try not to look at the screen, but I saw him tonight when I looked at the chair umpire,” he said. “I want to stay focused and I hope they appreciate my mentality because this is Ted Lasso.” She faced Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals. The omens are good for Swiatek, as he has won six of nine meetings and will be the favourite.
Karolina Muchova
Muchova will go into the quarter-finals with Beatriz Haddad Maia — she is a notorious double bouncer in the fourth round — as the favourite. And he knows what it takes to reach a Slam final, having reached that stage at Roland Garros last year only to run into a formidable Swiatek-sized wall. Muchova’s fourth-round match against Jasmine Paolini was an exciting one, as the Italian was outstanding in 2024 as she reached the finals of Roland Garros and Wimbledon. But Muchova made light work of Paolini, winning 6-3, 6-3. Muchova holds a 3-0 record against Haddad Maia and comes into this tournament fresh, having only had one previous tournament on the hard court in Cincinnati. “Playing a few matches, I feel like I’m building up the game. I feel better every day on the court. “I’m in the quarter, and I’m very grateful for, and we’ll see.”
front row: Jessica Pegula
Having said all the above about Swiatek being the favorite for this match, Flushing Meadows could do something good for the home favorite. They roared Gauff home last year, and how brilliant will it be Pegula to follow in HBS? She entered the US Open in incredible form, winning in Toronto, and reaching the final in Cincinnati, where she lost to Sabalenka. She has yet to drop a set at the US Open – including the one that sent Shelby Rogers retiring in the opening round – and is desperate to end her six Slam quarter-final losses. Seven times lucky? Well, he certainly makes an interesting case. Against Diana Shnaider in the fourth round, she hit 22 winners, and held on to save seven of nine break points. So why can’t Pegula win it all?
“It depends on the day how you feel, how you play, what happens when you go out,” said Pegula, before the match with Swiatek. “I didn’t know how I felt until I played the first game.”
Single son
Jannik Dosa
The sinner has remained focused in the midst of the maelstrom. While the men’s singles series has been a mess, Dosa has been one reliable constant. But he came to this Slam question about the announcement of two positive tests for banned substances in March. That led to criticism from current and former pros, and questions about the sport’s doping policy. Despite all that, he was able to progress through the rounds. He knows the pitfalls of losing concentration.
“When you drop a little bit in your level – if it’s mental, if it’s tennis-wise or physically – in the end, it has a big impact on the result,” said Dosa after his third-round win against Christopher O. ‘Connell.
In the first two rounds she got past MacKenzie McDonald in four sets, then beat Alex Michelsen in three sets. After O’Connell, he faced home favorite Tommy Paul who he defeated in straight sets. And for the quarter? Well, the 2021 winner is Daniil Medvedev. Dosa will be the favorite, and is the only player in the men’s team to reach the quarter-finals of all four Slams this year, but he will have a final meeting ahead of him.
“It’s going to be a lot of rallies, so I hope I’m physically ready,” Dosa said. “It’s going to be a physical match, as well as a mental match. I won in Australia, then he won at Wimbledon. It was five sets. So hopefully it will be a good match.”
Alexander Zverev
Zverev is no stranger to late matches, as he holds the special record since 2022 when his victory over Jenson Brooksby at the Abierto Mexico tournament ended at 4.55, but saw his third-round match against Tomas Martin Etcheverry until 2.35. splendid. But he bounced back and cruised through a fourth-round match in four sets against Brandon Nakashima to earn a spot in the quarterfinals against Taylor Fritz.
He will have to fight off a partisan crowd on Tuesday if he is to get through, but Zverev has looked good this year, having reached the Roland Garros final, and the Australian Open semi-finals. He has a beef with Fritz, so it can be spicy. Zverev was critical of the noise from Fritz’s box when the American beat him in the round of 16 at Wimbledon this year and he shared a tense moment at the net. Zverev has reached two Slam finals — the 2024 French Open final and the 2020 US Open final — and is desperate to get over the line.
“I only had to win one set more than the last two times in the final. I did everything I could,” said Zverev. “Everything else is out of my power, I try my best and hopefully it will be enough at some point in my career.”
Daniel Medvedev
Medvedev knows what it takes to win this tournament, having won it in 2021. He has bragging rights over Dosa because he won the last time they met at Wimbledon, and has a 7-5 record against him overall. But Dosa is better in this rivalry in recent times. Before that meeting on grass, Dosa had won five previous matches, including the final of the Australian Open.
“I will try to think more about Wimbledon than the Australian Open,” said Medvedev, after beating Nuno Borges 6-0, 6-1, 6-3 in just 1:51.
There is an argument that whoever wins this quarter-final, will win the entire tournament. So far, Medvedev’s 2024 US Open has seen him drop just one set — in the opener against Dusan Lajovic — then straight away against Fabian Marozsan, Flavio Cobolli and Borges. But Sin will be a much heavier task.
“I had an unbelievable fight with Jannik,” Medvedev said. “It will be very physical for both of us.”
front row: Taylor Fritz
Frances Tiafoe is very much in the mix, and she has a great chance to get past Grigor Dimitrov in the quarter-finals, but Fritz is perhaps just a touch better to win it all. Fritz reached the quarter-finals of the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year, and is desperate to go further against Zverev.
Fritz has looked rattled twice this week, frustration bubbling over – as in the four-set win against Casper Ruud – but he played brilliantly and will return alone to pass Zverev. He also saw how the draw had been played. While Alcaraz and Djokovic have bowed out, they have passed Camilo Ugo, Matteo Berrettini, Francisco Comesana and Ruud and are looking to continue their journey.
“(With) the round, it is impossible not to know that there are more opportunities with how the round has opened up,” said Fritz. “It’s still the same for me. Take it one match at a time. Worry about the people in front of me, and we’ll go from there. The success in the slams has been good, but I’m a little bit. It’s a little bit painful just to be in the quarterfinals, and I always want more advanced.”
Outside shot: Jack Draper
There’s something about young Brits and the US Open. In 2021, the unqualified Emma Raducanu won the women’s singles and while Jack Draper’s trajectory is not unusual – he won the Stuttgart Open, and beat Carlos Alcaraz at Queen’s this year – Draper is set to be the future Slam-challenger in English tennis for the year . Draper, 22 years old, has been able to marry extraordinary ability with a durable body – thanks to the work of Steve Kotze and Will Herbert – and the two work brilliantly in tandem. What was the achievement of reaching the men’s quarterfinals in New York? It is the first since Sir Andy Murray took over in 2016.
“To follow in Andy’s footsteps and make the quarter-finals here is a huge achievement for me,” said Draper after his fourth-round win over Tomas Machac. “But I just have to keep going because I know there’s still room for improvement and there’s still room to hopefully go further in the tournament. I’m really proud of the achievement and I hope to do more.”
Draper faces Alex De Minaur in the quarter-finals, and Brad Gilbert of ESPN called the young Brit a “legitimate threat” to win it all.
