The French president called a surprise election. The result could be a reduction in their power in world affairs

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PARIS (AP) — French President Emmanuel Macron may have woken up — if he had slept — with his wings clipped on Monday morning.

The second round of high-stakes legislative elections on Sunday will almost certainly affect the influence of French leaders on defense and foreign affairs. It can reduce its role as an energetic and influential figure in European and world affairs and as one of the main backers of Ukraine in the war against Russia, said a retired French military officer and an analyst of French defense and foreign policy.

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After the centrist presidential bloc finished a distant third, behind the surging far right, at the end of last week in the first round of voting for the new parliament, the only certainty before Sunday’s decisive round is that Macron himself could not emerge strong.

With many candidates already out of the race, Macron’s camp could not secure an absolute majority that would have given him enough room to maneuver in his first term as president since 2017. It could also fall short of the 245 seats it won afterwards. Re-election in 2022. That makes it the largest single group – albeit without a clear majority – in the soon-to-be-dissolved National Assembly that Macron dissolved on June 9, leading to a surprise election after the far-right gave up the alliance painfully in the French vote. The European Parliament.

This resulted in the two most common results appearing on Sunday night until Monday as the official results came in.

In one scenario, France could have a fractured parliament and a prime minister too weak to undermine Macron’s constitutionally guaranteed role as head of the armed forces and, more generally, unable or unwilling to challenge his defense and foreign policy powers. Still, even in this best-case scenario for Macron, France risks becoming deeply entrenched, focused more on polarized and unstable domestic politics than on its place and military activities in the world.

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In the second, worst-case scenario for Macron, the far-right could secure a historic victory on Sunday that establishes the presidency with Jordan Bardella as prime minister, in an awkward and possibly conflicting power-sharing arrangement. Bardella, 28, is a protégé of Marine Le Pen, who leads the far-right National Rally party, with Bardella as president. Both Le Pen and Bardella have made it clear that, in power, they will seek Macron and work on defense, making European and foreign affairs decisions.

The French constitution provides only limited answers as to how the various scenarios may play out. In general, it may depend on the personalities involved and their ability to compromise, the French analyst said.

Bardella ‘red line’

Although the constitution says the president is commander-in-chief, it also says the prime minister is “responsible for national defense.”

During the campaign, Bardella stated what he said would be “my red line” regarding Ukraine, if he ends up sharing power with Macron: No more shipments of French long-range weapons that Ukraine can use to attack targets in Russia and not send troops, a scenario that Macron is floating this year. Bardella said he did not want a nuclear-armed France to be drawn into a direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed Russia. Her party is close to Russia and Le Pen has for years developed ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and supported the illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.

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Who will have the last word in the potential argument about long-range weapons for Kyiv is “actually quite difficult,” said Francois Heisbourg, a French analyst on defense and security questions at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“The president can do it if he wants to, but the prime minister can also declare that he can prevent the president from doing it,” he said. “It could be a deadlock.”

“If they don’t agree, they can prevent each other from doing something.”

Power sharing is not new in France. But in the previous case, the president and prime minister were not as politically opposed as Macron and Bardella.

“No one so far has tried to test that power to the end. This is uncharted territory,” Heisbourg said.

Le Pen and Macron trade shots

On military affairs, Le Pen has sounded a warning, calling Macron’s role as commander-in-chief “an honorary title for the president because the prime minister holds the purse strings.” Macron replied: “What arrogance!”

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Retired Vice-Admiral Michel Olhagaray, former head of France’s higher military studies center, is concerned that what he describes as a constitutional “blur” on shared military responsibilities could affect the ranks of the country’s armed forces.

Showing the power of the conflict can be “something very painful for the army, knowing who to follow. It’s very painful, very difficult,” he said.

“In any case, the president of the republic can no longer take personal initiatives, such as launching (military) operations, etc., because it requires an understanding with the prime minister.”

Because the French military operates around the globe, with forces deployed in the eastern part of the NATO alliance, in Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere, a change in posture by a government that shows power will certainly be scrutinized by France’s international network. allies and partners.

Everyone will ask: ‘But what happened? How will this develop? What will become of France? Will France fulfill its commitment?” Olhagaray said.

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But analysts said France’s nuclear forces were unaffected. The president holds the nuclear code, not least to ensure that the arsenal remains credible as a deterrent by ensuring that potential adversaries know that the decision to attack is not made by committee.

France looks inside

In the absence of a clear majority for the bloc from Sunday’s vote, lawmakers may have to do something that is not traditional in France: form a coalition government. Because the prime minister under his leadership needs a broad consensus in parliament to keep the government from collapsing, that person is more likely to be a weak junior partner to share power with Macron.

“The president will have more control,” said retired General Dominique Trinquand, former head of France’s military mission to the United Nations.

In a coalition government, consensus-building on tough foreign policy questions — such as whether to boost aid to Ukraine _ can take time, and divisive issues can be put on the back burner.

“The room for maneuver will be narrow,” said Frederic Charillon, professor of political science at Paris Cite University.

“In France, we are more used to the presidential system of monarchical foreign policy, when the president says, ‘I will do this, I will do it.”

But on the power-sharing arrangement with the new prime minister-in-waiting Macron said, “It can’t be like that.”

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