With Ukraine’s second-largest city on the brink of a new Russian offensive, many NATO allies have backed Kyiv’s request that its forces carry out strikes on Russian territory with Western weapons.
President Biden decided to allow Ukraine to use American weapons against military targets in Russia to preempt the Kharkiv attack, days after Canada decided to allow the use of the weapons it provided. More than a dozen have given similar permission to Ukraine.
The United States, Ukraine’s most important arms supplier, has been reluctant to take such steps, worried about provoking Russia into an escalation that could drag down NATO and lead to a wider war. Without input from Washington, the American-made Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, can strike Russian targets only in Ukraine.
But many Western leaders and military analysts say that with Russia massing thousands of troops on its side of the border – less than 20 miles from the northeastern city of Kharkiv – Ukraine needs authorization to attack Russia with Western weapons. The permission from President Biden was intended only for Ukraine to attack military sites in Russia that were used to attack Kharkiv, US officials said.
“The Russian commanders also understand the impossibility of attacking Ukraine,” Peter Dickinson, a Ukraine analyst at the Atlantic Council in Washington, wrote in an analysis published before Mr. Biden’s policy change.
Officials and experts say launching missiles into Russia, striking troops, bases, airfields and supply lines, could pay immediate dividends. Indeed, the Ukrainian military has appeared to be preparing to launch some initial strikes, “to test Russia’s response,” Rafael Loss, an arms expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said in an interview Thursday.
Ukraine and its NATO allies are unwilling to risk changing tactics without US approval, Mr Loss said. “The United States will ultimately bear much of the burden of responding in the event of a significant escalation by Russia, for example, against NATO territory.”
Below is a list of countries that have given permission to Ukraine to use weapons on Russian territory and those that have not, and the possibility of Ukraine’s influence given the freedom to go to war with Russia.
That supports the attack on Russian land
Every country that provides weapons to Ukraine has the right to determine how they are used, and so far the UK, Canada, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden and Poland have expressed support for Ukraine to attack military targets in Russian soil.
Some nations are more cautious than others. Germany and Sweden, for example, agreed only “within the framework of international law,” as Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany said on Tuesday. He expressed the conditions that other countries have also made in the past two years to support Ukraine, although they did not say it clearly.
The UK was one of the first to argue for loosening the ban. “Ukraine has that right,” Foreign Minister David Cameron said during a May 3 visit to Kyiv. “Just as Russia attacked in Ukraine, you can understand why Ukraine felt the need to defend itself.”
The move came as strong support from French President Emmanuel Macron helped persuade a more reluctant German to reconsider its position this week. “It’s as if we’re telling you: ‘We give you weapons but you can’t use them to defend yourself’,” Mr Macron said in Berlin this week, with Mr Scholz at his side.
That calls for a ‘prudent’ approach
Several countries – Belgium, Italy and, so far, the United States – have said they are not ready to allow Ukraine to use weapons to target targets in Russia, citing risks, which may be difficult to anticipate. For example, the recent Ukrainian attack with its own drone on Russia’s nuclear early warning radar system, a potentially destabilizing step, has caused deep concern in Washington.
On Monday, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said NATO allies “must be very careful” before Western weapons are used on Russian territory. A day later, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo of Belgium announced the donation of 30 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine – but only “for use by the Defense Forces of Ukraine on the territory of Ukraine.”
In Washington, a White House spokesman maintained on Tuesday that the Biden administration would not “endorse or enable” the use of American weapons on Russian soil. But that resistance weakened in the face of pressure from its allies, as Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken suggested the next day that the US could “adapt and adjust” its stance based on battlefield conditions.
The Biden administration has a long history of resisting Ukrainian demands for more powerful weapons, only to give it pressure and when Ukraine’s prospects look bleak. This is the case with the ATACM missile system, Abrams tanks and F-16 fighter jets, among other weapons.
However, in some cases, the United States has allowed Ukrainian forces to use Patriot air defense missiles to shoot down Russian warplanes operating in Russian airspace, a senior Biden administration official said.
Possible impact
With permission already granted, Ukraine could attack Russia with UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles and associated SCALP missiles from France. The missiles have a range of about 150 miles and were launched from Ukraine’s aging fleet of Soviet-designed fighter jets.
Several countries – Britain, Germany, Norway and the United States – have given Ukraine land-based launchers capable of firing long-range missiles. These systems are known as HIMARS and MLRS launchers, and can also shoot the United States’ ATACMS, a missile with a range of up to 190 miles.
“If they green-light the use of ATACMS, that could degrade Russia’s ability to use an area as a sanctuary for ground operations,” Mr. Loss said.
(Germany has so far refused to donate the Taurus missile, which has a range of 310 miles, out of concern that it could be launched into Russia and escalate the war. Now that’s even less likely, Mr. Loss said.)
In addition, Britain, Canada and the United States have supplied Ukraine with medium-range missiles or small-diameter bombs that can reach Russia from 50 to 90 miles.
But the new authority may have the biggest impact in the battle for air superiority — especially if allies allow donated jets and drones to strike in Russian airspace.
It is unclear whether Denmark or the Netherlands would allow the F-16s sent by Ukraine to fly over Russian territory, where they could be shot down. In comments this week, the Dutch defense minister, Kajsa Ollongren, did not appear to place any specific restrictions on the weapons provided by the Netherlands. “A Ukrainian attack on Russian soil is something I have never dismissed,” he said.
At least four other countries – Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and North Macedonia – have supplied Soviet-era fighter jets. Britain and Turkey have sent long-range attack drones that can also fly directly into Russia.
At the very least, Mr. Loss said, the incoming fleet of F-16s will be equipped with long-range missiles capable of targeting Russian jets “from behind their borders,” with implications for Ukraine’s future air power.
“We’re not there yet,” he said, noting that Ukrainian pilots have yet to master fighter jets with sufficient skill to fight the Russian fringes. “But there is some potential for Ukraine’s future F-16 fleet to attack Russian territory.”
Eric Schmitt contributed reports from Washington, and Edward Wong from Prague, Czech Republic.
