Southeast Asian Countries Hit by Typhoons Will Know Last Rainier Until 2024

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(Bloomberg) — Southeast Asia could see higher-than-normal rainfall in the coming months, threatening further disruption to agriculture, tourism and industrial output in the region that has been battered by storms this year.

Weather forecasters predict wet conditions from the Philippines to Vietnam until November, largely due to the emerging La Niña phenomenon, which moves warm water into the western Pacific Ocean and brings more rain to the region.

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More rain could hamper recovery efforts in Vietnam, which was hit in September by Typhoon Yagi, the worst storm to hit the country in decades. Manufacturing power plants have taken 40 trillion dong ($1.6 billion) from Yagi, and authorities have warned that damage from the storm – such as flooded factories and inundated rice and coffee crops – could dampen overall economic growth this year.

Tourism-dependent Thailand is considering a bill of 30 billion baht ($904 million) in compensation for a wave of floods in the north, including in Chiang Mai, which forced the evacuation of about 100 elephants from conservation centres. And the Philippines, which sees about nine typhoons a year, is still reeling from several deadly storms in recent months, including Gaemi in July, Yagi in September, and Krathon in October.

“La Niña conditions are predicted from October-November 2024, one of the factors that cause the possibility of rainfall above normal,” in some countries in the region, the ASEAN Special Meteorological Center said.

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Singapore issued a flood alert on Monday as the inter-monsoon period brought lightning and thunder to the small city-state. The Philippine weather agency predicts that large parts of the archipelago could see above-average rainfall by the end of the year and 160% above average in January.

Vietnam is forecast to see above-average rainfall, including in the export-oriented north and heavy industry, according to the country’s meteorological service. The central region of the country, another important industrial hub, could see up to five flooding events until March.

Vietnam may also see a higher-than-usual number of tropical storms through April, according to Takahisa Nishikawa, head of forecasting operations for The Weather Company, potentially “producing heavy rains with the risk of flooding, landslides, and building collapse due to strong winds.”

Watch La Niña

The World Meteorological Organization predicts a 60% chance of La Niña conditions emerging later this year. Experts have been predicting its arrival for months, and it is expected to be weaker and shorter than initial forecasts. The phenomenon pushes warm water into Asia and Australia and is the opposite of El Niño, which brings dry conditions.

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Warmer sea surface temperatures also contribute to the development of storm systems. Research by scientists in the US and Singapore shows a warming climate is expected to increase the likelihood of typhoons forming and getting closer to Southeast Asia’s coastlines.

“Tropical cyclones will get stronger because the basic theory is clear: ocean temperatures are higher,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Singapore Earth Observatory, which participated in the research. “The warmer the ocean, the more energy there is for tropical cyclones to get bigger, and bigger, and bigger,” and places like Taiwan and Vietnam can expect to see more super typhoons.

Storm-Proof Now

The growing number of tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean has businesses and governments in weather-prone regions considering new ways to prevent storms.

“If Yagi has proven anything, it is that if you need to future-proof the country and the economy, there is no other pragmatic approach than you have to start now,” said Bruno Jaspaert, chairman of EuroCham Vietnam.

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The Amata City Ha Long industrial park in the north of the country is an example. Established in 2018, the industrial park conducted an extensive survey to assess the risk of flooding before breaking ground and investing in an advanced flood defense system.

While Yagi’s strong winds caused some damage to factories, “the flooding was fortunately prevented in our parks,” operator Amata said in a statement.

Jaspaert said Yagi could ask the Vietnamese government to tighten industrial building regulations for more storm-proof buildings. He said that while, for example, Taiwan’s laws on industrial construction are weak due to the frequency of hurricanes that hit the island, hurricanes that hit Vietnam historically hit areas with less industrial development – until Typhoon Yagi.

“Yagi creates more willingness to invest more and find other ways to protect buildings,” he said.

—With assistance from Linh Vu Nguyen.

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