Russia has hinted at changing its stance on using nuclear weapons

Russia has again hinted that it is making a change in its official stance on the use of nuclear weapons, amid Ukraine’s continued entry into the Kursk border region.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Sunday that Russia is in the process of revising its nuclear doctrine, which defines the conditions under which nuclear weapons can be used, because of what Russia sees as an “escalating” war with Western-backed Ukraine. .

Russia has been accused by the West of encouraging Ukraine’s cross-border offensive that has seen its forces seize nearly 500 square miles of Russian territory since it began on August 6. Ukraine’s NATO ally has denied having prior knowledge of the operation, or a hand in the attack. .

Speaking to Russian state media agency TASS on Sunday, Ryabkov said work was “at an advanced stage” to revise Russia’s nuclear doctrine governing the use of nuclear weapons.

“There is a clear direction to make adjustments, which is also based on the study and analysis of the experience of conflict development in recent years, including … military operations),” said Ryabkov, referring to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ryabkov did not specify when the changes will be completed, saying, “the time to complete this work is a rather difficult question, because we are talking about the most important aspect of ensuring our national security,” he said, in comments translated by Google.

Russia’s saber-rattling on the use of nuclear weapons is nothing new, but Ryabkov’s comments, echoing recent statements made by senior officials and the Kremlin, show Russia is preparing the ground for a change in state policy on what conditions it will accept. using nuclear weapons.

Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory, and the targeting of military facilities and infrastructure using Western-supplied weaponry, especially in the case of long-range missiles, have also raised the question of whether Moscow would consider using nuclear weapons to defend its own territory.

As it is now, the Russian nuclear doctrine states that Russia “provides the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against and/or allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, when the existence of the country is threatened.”

Other conditions that can determine the use of nuclear weapons by Russia include “the receipt of reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles that attacked the territory of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies,” as well as “adversary impact on critical state or military facilities,” according to Google’s translation of the document mentioned.

In its 2020 policy, Russia continues to describe nuclear weapons as a “means of deterrence,” used as an “extreme and necessary measure.” Russia called its nuclear doctrine “defensive in nature” and said it was “taking all necessary efforts to reduce the nuclear threat and prevent the worsening of interstate relations that could lead to military conflict, including nuclear.”

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly signaled that Moscow will not hesitate to deploy such weapons if its own territorial integrity and sovereignty are threatened.

In May, Russia conducted tactical nuclear weapons drills near the border with Ukraine and has also deployed such weapons in the territory of its ally, Belarus.

Tactical or non-strategic nuclear weapons are designed to be used on the battlefield and can destroy specific targets, such as military bases or training centers.

While strategic nuclear weapons capable of destroying entire cities, the proliferation of such weapons would be a serious escalation in the war, and raise concerns about a direct confrontation with the West.

Putin has also signaled his willingness to change the conditions under which the weapons can be used, saying in June that the country’s nuclear doctrine was a “living instrument” that could be changed.

“We have to clarify what constitutes the use or non-use (of nuclear weapons), as well as the specific scenarios in which they can be used. We have a nuclear doctrine, and everything is laid out there… It states clearly: nuclear weapons can only be used in cases where extraordinary – when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country, in extraordinary circumstances,” said Putin, at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June.

“I do not believe that this moment has come – there is no need. However, this doctrine is a living instrument, and we closely monitor the developments in the world around us, and we do not exclude the possibility of making changes to this doctrine,” added Putin .

Russia has been seen priming domestic and global audiences for a change in the country’s policy on using nuclear weapons since Ukraine launched an ambitious cross-border attack on Russia’s Kursk border region nearly a month ago.

In August, Russia’s foreign minister, his deputy and a Kremlin spokesman all said changes would be announced.

So, there are questions about whether Russia could prepare to deploy nuclear weapons against Ukraine quickly in response to an operation that would embarrass the Kremlin, and expose the weakness of Russia’s national defense.

“Russian military doctrine has always justified the use of nuclear weapons if the territorial integrity of Russia is threatened. The scope of Russian retaliation is quite unlimited,” said David Roche, president of Quantum Strategy, in an analysis in August.

Describing Ukraine’s attack on Kursk as a “game changer,” Roche added that the operation could make a nuclear confrontation more likely because it “derails NATO’s efforts to prevent ‘escalation.'”

“By attacking Russia, Ukraine has destroyed most of the lower rungs on the ladder of escalation that the Alliance, and the US in particular, sought to preserve,” he noted.

Despite its own invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has positioned the war as an existential war, accusing the West of supporting Ukraine in a bid to destroy Russia. Ukraine’s Western allies in NATO denied the claims, saying the military aid they provided to Kyiv was to defend the country’s sovereignty and territorial independence.

Ukrainian officials hope the strike, and crossing one of the Kremlin’s “red lines,” will allay Western fears that Putin might use nuclear weapons — and could encourage more NATO allies to approve their longer-range use. missiles against targets in Russia.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War played on Ryabkov’s comments, stating Sunday evening that “Russian officials continue to engage in saber-rattling nuclear rote in an effort to push the West to self-deter and reduce support for Ukraine.”

“Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on September 1 that Russia would change its nuclear doctrine based on the new conflict and the Western-alleged escalation in Ukraine but noted that no date has been set for the change,” ISW said in its analysis, adding . :

“Ryabkov did not specify what the alleged change in doctrine was, and the ISW continues to establish that Russia remains unable to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine or engage in nuclear confrontations elsewhere.”